Posted on 02/03/2007 3:27:38 PM PST by xcamel
Is the Earth currently experiencing a warming trend? Yes.
Are human activities, including the burning of fossil fuel and forest conversion, the primary — or even significant — drivers of this current temperature trend? The scientifically appropriate answer — cautious and conforming to the known facts — is: probably not.
" ** The Earth's climate cycles through 90,000-year Ice Ages interspersed with shorter warm periods."
Indeed, the current warming cycle is not unusual: Evidence from around the world shows that the Earth has experienced numerous climate cycles throughout its history. These cycles include glacial periods (more commonly known as Ice Ages) and interglacial periods, as well as smaller, though significant, fluctuations. During the past 20 years, scientists have been accumulating strong physical evidence that the Earth consistently goes through a climate cycle marked by alternating warmer and cooler periods over 1,500 years (plus or minus 500 years). The evidence indicates that: The Earth experienced a Little Ice Age from 1300 to 1850. A Modern Warming period began about 1850 and continues to the present.
Figure I tracks the Medieval Warming and Little Ice Age that preceded today’s Modern Warming.
We have long had physical evidence that the Earth has experienced numerous climate cycles throughout its history. The best-known of these is the Ice Age cycle, with 90,000-year Ice Ages interspersed with far shorter interglacial periods. What is new is the evidence of more moderate, persistent climate cycles within these broader cycles.
The message that the 1,500-year climate cycle is real, broad — and sudden — is being dug up from the Earth itself by modern science. The key evidence comes from very long-term proxies for temperature change, especially ice cores, seabed and lake sediments, and fossils of pollen grains and tiny sea creatures that document even small changes in Earth’s temperature over many thousands of years.
In addition, we have a number of shorter-term proxies (cave stalagmites, tree rings from trees both living and buried, boreholes and a wide variety of other temperature proxies) that testify to the global nature of the 1,500-year climate cycles.
A striking example of the effect of this 1,500-year climate cycle can be seen in the temperature-sensitive history of wine-growing in England.
" ** Evidence from every continent and ocean confirms the 1,500-year cycle."
The Romans grew wine grapes in England when they occupied it from the first through the fourth centuries. Aerial photography, remote sensing and large-scale excavation have recently revealed seven Roman-era vineyards in south central England. One site contains nearly four miles of bedding trenches that could have supported some 4,000 grapevines.
The full article is well worth reading and keeping handy - there's a pdf version. Singer has been one of my favorite authorities about this, and he's on target with this. The global warming crowd wants these inconvenient temperature cycles to go away, but it is too clear to erase.
National Center for Policy Analysis. Hmm. A non-profit can call itself anything it wants. How about Official National Center for Policy Analysis? Bet that could suck up a few grants.
bttt
Here's the info on that GW stuff we were talking about!
And just how do you know that we've used HALF of the earth's supply of fossil fuels? Is there any scientific way to determine that, given we haven't even explored in many vast areas of the globe?
Thanks for mentioning the PDF. I'm going to try to read through the entire study in the next few days...
Technology confuses how much fossil fuel remains. We've just started exploiting oil shales, for example. If we exploit undersea methane deposits, there will be more fossil fuels to burn, increasing "what remains".
It is my guess that half the OIL accumulated has been burned to the atmosphere. (Oil that took billions of years to accumulate—all gone in a geological "poof" in time).
THE PHYSICAL EVIDENCE OF EARTH’S UNSTOPPABLE 1,500-YEAR CLIMATE CYCLE
National Center for Policy Analysis | Friday, September 30, 2005 | S. Fred Singer, Dennis Avery
Posted on 10/04/2005 11:27:20 PM EDT by PeaceBeWithYou
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