Posted on 02/03/2007 3:27:38 PM PST by xcamel
Is the Earth currently experiencing a warming trend? Yes.
Are human activities, including the burning of fossil fuel and forest conversion, the primary — or even significant — drivers of this current temperature trend? The scientifically appropriate answer — cautious and conforming to the known facts — is: probably not.
" ** The Earth's climate cycles through 90,000-year Ice Ages interspersed with shorter warm periods."
Indeed, the current warming cycle is not unusual: Evidence from around the world shows that the Earth has experienced numerous climate cycles throughout its history. These cycles include glacial periods (more commonly known as Ice Ages) and interglacial periods, as well as smaller, though significant, fluctuations. During the past 20 years, scientists have been accumulating strong physical evidence that the Earth consistently goes through a climate cycle marked by alternating warmer and cooler periods over 1,500 years (plus or minus 500 years). The evidence indicates that: The Earth experienced a Little Ice Age from 1300 to 1850. A Modern Warming period began about 1850 and continues to the present.
Figure I tracks the Medieval Warming and Little Ice Age that preceded today’s Modern Warming.
We have long had physical evidence that the Earth has experienced numerous climate cycles throughout its history. The best-known of these is the Ice Age cycle, with 90,000-year Ice Ages interspersed with far shorter interglacial periods. What is new is the evidence of more moderate, persistent climate cycles within these broader cycles.
The message that the 1,500-year climate cycle is real, broad — and sudden — is being dug up from the Earth itself by modern science. The key evidence comes from very long-term proxies for temperature change, especially ice cores, seabed and lake sediments, and fossils of pollen grains and tiny sea creatures that document even small changes in Earth’s temperature over many thousands of years.
In addition, we have a number of shorter-term proxies (cave stalagmites, tree rings from trees both living and buried, boreholes and a wide variety of other temperature proxies) that testify to the global nature of the 1,500-year climate cycles.
A striking example of the effect of this 1,500-year climate cycle can be seen in the temperature-sensitive history of wine-growing in England.
" ** Evidence from every continent and ocean confirms the 1,500-year cycle."
The Romans grew wine grapes in England when they occupied it from the first through the fourth centuries. Aerial photography, remote sensing and large-scale excavation have recently revealed seven Roman-era vineyards in south central England. One site contains nearly four miles of bedding trenches that could have supported some 4,000 grapevines.
Excellent!
The United Nations is sure that this research is incorrect. Who ya gonna trust? (heh heh)
your GW pinglist
The money line: "Importantly, if the current warming trend is, as the evidence suggests, part of an entirely natural climate cycle, actions proposed to prevent further warming would be futile and could, by imposing substantial costs upon the global economy, lessen the ability of people to adapt to the impacts — both positive and negative — of climate change."
Of course the so-called scientists who are pimping global warming hysteria are going to ignore this, esp. at the UN. After all, this is about taking America down a peg, nothing else. That's the goal of both the UN and the American left, who are behind all the hype.
But some more facts do help...
Bttt.
The only thing I regret is that it's quite possible that definitive evidence one way or another about what's causing our recent warming may not be found until Al Gore and his U.N. poobah buddies and the hysterical ninnies who fawn over them have already cooled off in their graves. It would be sweet to see all those guys and gals humiliated in the public square by some good old-fashioned scientific evidence before they shuffle off this mortal coil.
Burn off half of Earth's peat, oil, and gas supplies that have been sequestered over the past billion years. Burn it over a 100-year period, and see if Earth warms some.
Oh, wait: we already did that. :-\
Coldest weather in 4 years in MN this weekend......
IT'S A TREND!!!!
bttt
Less than 3% of the global energy reserves have been "burned" (and you forgot coal)
The oldest fossil fuels are from The Carboniferous Period occurred from about 360 to 286 million years ago. (not "a billion")
More energy is locked up in gas hydrate under the oceans than we have burned since man discovered fire.
And at any time prior to the age of man, up to 20% of the dry land was being consumed by massive forrest and grass fires - replenishing the CO2 for the rest of the world's plants to "breathe"
Science is rational, not emotional.
Damn chilly here in NY too. Thanks for reminding me.
(WC of -10 to -30 by monday)
That's all??
;-)
http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf119/sf119p08.htm
bttt
This would be lost on the IPCC of course since almost all of them are hired guns and scientifically illiterate government functionaries, while almost none of them are climatologists.
It has long since been debunked and explained by tectonic folding and injection, and especially glacial compression.
Amen, Brother.
bump
I'm sure that industrialization has had some effect on climate, but climatic cycles are readily identifiable to anyone who can read tree rings and ice cores.
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