Posted on 01/10/2007 2:12:30 PM PST by knighthawk
Hugo Chavez's autocratic model for governing Venezuela was doomed to failure. Over the long term, it is just not possible for one man, however charismatic, to dominate a society and economy as complex as Venezuela's. And now, with his latest power play, the plan to nationalize Venezuela's telecommunications and electricity industries announced on Monday, that moment may come sooner rather than later. The nationalization is sure to deal a painful blow to Venezuela's oil-dependent economy. And it will alienate many Venezuelans - not only private investors, but also the poor, who have the most to lose from economic decline.
True, Chavez was just reelected to a new six-year term last month. And yes, thanks to high oil prices, the economy has grown, social programs have been put in place and poverty has been reduced. For now, the opposition is weak and its future uncertain.
But it's now clear that Chavez's self-confidence has outgrown his momentary good fortune. Like Castro, the man's appetite for power knows few bounds; he has never made it a secret that he wants to tighten his grip as much as possible. Nor has he hidden his intense dislike of the U.S. government. Chavez has constructed a cult of personality, painting himself as the pesky southern power wrestling the sole superpower.
And now, every which way - domestically and internationally - he is overreaching. At home, Chavez is working to quash any rival independent power base that could stand in his way. His recent decision not to renew the license of RCTV, an outlet that features some criticism of government policies, fits the pattern. So does a bill in the Chavez-controlled national assembly that would regulate external support for civic organizations.
Chavez's attempt to create a single, united political party - the United Socialist Party of Venezuela - would further consolidate his political control. And a reform for his indefinite reelection is almost certain to be approved.
It is still not altogether clear what shape the announced nationalizations will actually take. There is always the chance that, in the wake of his bluster, Chavez will pull back and end up with a more accommodating position. After all, he still needs foreign capital.
But the thrust of where the demagogue wants togo - and how he aimsto pump up his personal power base - is clear, and his rhetoric is as combative as ever. All of this is not only ominous for the health of Venezuelan democracy. It could also prove to be a political mistake. Chavez risks moving much too fast and going much too far, without the support of the vast majority of Venezuelans.
Rather than assuring his longevity in office, Chavez's moves at the outset of his eighth year as Venezuela's president may accelerate the implosion of a political system whose soft spots and vulnerabilities are increasingly exposed.
Michael Shifter is vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue
Ping
Guess Michael Shifter has never heard of Cuba or Fidel Castro. A regular paradise. ;o)
Hugo ping.
He's just been sworn in for the third time, seems to be able to get his way with the Venezuelan Congress and courts, holds huge sway in the oil (state-owned) oil industry, and seems to have the loyalty of the military. It seems that he will be able to make decrees over the legislature soon, and that his plan to nationalize business in Venezuela will be accepted by the Congress, too.
I've seen the evidence that he's a nut. I haven't yet seen the evidence that he's ready to crack.
Question: What's better than being a Chief Officer of a big telecom company?
Answer: Being Minister of Telecommunications in a big government.
So, apparently what they call "the-21st-century socialism", which they claim as 'different from the Soviet-stlye dictatorship by emphasizing on people's participation' turns out to be the same as Lenin/Castro style after all.
This guy's an idiot. As long as Chavez keeps playing the anti-American card, the people of Venezuela will support him unquestioningly, and the Russians, the Chinese and the Europeans will make sure that plenty of capital continues to flow into Venezuela for him to seize.
Nonsense. He's imitating Castro and therefore he'll soon be out on his ear? It seems to me that Castro has had lifetime tenure, and I expect Chavez will have the same.
The longer a Communist dictator remains in office, the harder it is to get him out. Yes, the people of Venezuela will suffer terribly, but Chavez will continue to enjoy his power trip.
Ping.
The "peepul of Venezuela" deserve every bullet that a government goon gives them. They voted this socialist into office.
Perhaps, it is time to invoke the Monroe Doctrine again?
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that the author of this tripe knows it, too. No one could be stupid enough to actually believe this nonsense, which leads me to conclude that the author is laying down the foundation for the "we should leave Venezuela and Chavez alone, and not even impose any sanctions on them, because the government will collapse on its own anyway" argument.
As you pointed out, look at Castro.
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