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The Venezuelan nut begins to crack
NY Daily News ^ | January 10 2007 | Michael Shifter

Posted on 01/10/2007 2:12:30 PM PST by knighthawk

Hugo Chavez's autocratic model for governing Venezuela was doomed to failure. Over the long term, it is just not possible for one man, however charismatic, to dominate a society and economy as complex as Venezuela's. And now, with his latest power play, the plan to nationalize Venezuela's telecommunications and electricity industries announced on Monday, that moment may come sooner rather than later. The nationalization is sure to deal a painful blow to Venezuela's oil-dependent economy. And it will alienate many Venezuelans - not only private investors, but also the poor, who have the most to lose from economic decline.

True, Chavez was just reelected to a new six-year term last month. And yes, thanks to high oil prices, the economy has grown, social programs have been put in place and poverty has been reduced. For now, the opposition is weak and its future uncertain.

But it's now clear that Chavez's self-confidence has outgrown his momentary good fortune. Like Castro, the man's appetite for power knows few bounds; he has never made it a secret that he wants to tighten his grip as much as possible. Nor has he hidden his intense dislike of the U.S. government. Chavez has constructed a cult of personality, painting himself as the pesky southern power wrestling the sole superpower.

And now, every which way - domestically and internationally - he is overreaching. At home, Chavez is working to quash any rival independent power base that could stand in his way. His recent decision not to renew the license of RCTV, an outlet that features some criticism of government policies, fits the pattern. So does a bill in the Chavez-controlled national assembly that would regulate external support for civic organizations.

Chavez's attempt to create a single, united political party - the United Socialist Party of Venezuela - would further consolidate his political control. And a reform for his indefinite reelection is almost certain to be approved.

It is still not altogether clear what shape the announced nationalizations will actually take. There is always the chance that, in the wake of his bluster, Chavez will pull back and end up with a more accommodating position. After all, he still needs foreign capital.

But the thrust of where the demagogue wants togo - and how he aimsto pump up his personal power base - is clear, and his rhetoric is as combative as ever. All of this is not only ominous for the health of Venezuelan democracy. It could also prove to be a political mistake. Chavez risks moving much too fast and going much too far, without the support of the vast majority of Venezuelans.

Rather than assuring his longevity in office, Chavez's moves at the outset of his eighth year as Venezuela's president may accelerate the implosion of a political system whose soft spots and vulnerabilities are increasingly exposed.

Michael Shifter is vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: chavez; hugoping; latinamerica; venezuela

1 posted on 01/10/2007 2:12:32 PM PST by knighthawk
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To: MizSterious; Nix 2; green lantern; BeOSUser; Brad's Gramma; dreadme; Turk2; keri; ...

Ping


2 posted on 01/10/2007 2:13:06 PM PST by knighthawk (We will always remember We will always be proud We will always be prepared so we may always be free)
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To: knighthawk
Over the long term, it is just not possible for one man, however charismatic, to dominate a society and economy as complex as Venezuela's.

Guess Michael Shifter has never heard of Cuba or Fidel Castro. A regular paradise. ;o)

3 posted on 01/10/2007 2:14:22 PM PST by ladtx ("It is fatal to enter any war without the will to win it." -- -- General Douglas MacArthur)
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To: knighthawk; proud_yank

Hugo ping.


4 posted on 01/10/2007 2:18:31 PM PST by jazusamo (http://warchronicle.com/TheyAreNotKillers/DefendOurMarines.htm)
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To: knighthawk
How is Hugo's control beginning to crack (not that it won't and not that it shouldn't)?

He's just been sworn in for the third time, seems to be able to get his way with the Venezuelan Congress and courts, holds huge sway in the oil (state-owned) oil industry, and seems to have the loyalty of the military. It seems that he will be able to make decrees over the legislature soon, and that his plan to nationalize business in Venezuela will be accepted by the Congress, too.

5 posted on 01/10/2007 2:35:16 PM PST by Jedi Master Pikachu ( WND, NewsMax, Townhall.com, Brietbart.com, and Drudge Report are not valid news sources.)
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To: knighthawk

I've seen the evidence that he's a nut. I haven't yet seen the evidence that he's ready to crack.


6 posted on 01/10/2007 2:39:45 PM PST by marron
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To: knighthawk
I used to work for a large telecom firm whose top management was campaining for world socialism and apparently wanted to be nationalized.

Question: What's better than being a Chief Officer of a big telecom company?

Answer: Being Minister of Telecommunications in a big government.

7 posted on 01/10/2007 2:41:53 PM PST by snarkpup
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To: knighthawk

So, apparently what they call "the-21st-century socialism", which they claim as 'different from the Soviet-stlye dictatorship by emphasizing on people's participation' turns out to be the same as Lenin/Castro style after all.


8 posted on 01/10/2007 2:49:02 PM PST by paudio (WoT is more important than War on Gay Marriage!)
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To: knighthawk

This guy's an idiot. As long as Chavez keeps playing the anti-American card, the people of Venezuela will support him unquestioningly, and the Russians, the Chinese and the Europeans will make sure that plenty of capital continues to flow into Venezuela for him to seize.


9 posted on 01/10/2007 2:53:28 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (Go Gators! NCAA Football and Basketball Champions!)
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To: knighthawk

Nonsense. He's imitating Castro and therefore he'll soon be out on his ear? It seems to me that Castro has had lifetime tenure, and I expect Chavez will have the same.

The longer a Communist dictator remains in office, the harder it is to get him out. Yes, the people of Venezuela will suffer terribly, but Chavez will continue to enjoy his power trip.


10 posted on 01/10/2007 3:27:42 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: StJacques; Kitten Festival; Founding Father

Ping.


11 posted on 01/10/2007 3:51:40 PM PST by Alia
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To: Cicero

The "peepul of Venezuela" deserve every bullet that a government goon gives them. They voted this socialist into office.

Perhaps, it is time to invoke the Monroe Doctrine again?


12 posted on 01/10/2007 4:05:00 PM PST by GladesGuru (In a society predicated upon Liberty, it is essential to examine principles, - -)
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To: knighthawk
It's just amazing what a short guy with a tiny schmekel like Chavez will do in attempting to prove himself. What a pathetic jerk.
13 posted on 01/10/2007 4:33:15 PM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: Cicero
The longer a Communist dictator remains in office, the harder it is to get him out.

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that the author of this tripe knows it, too. No one could be stupid enough to actually believe this nonsense, which leads me to conclude that the author is laying down the foundation for the "we should leave Venezuela and Chavez alone, and not even impose any sanctions on them, because the government will collapse on its own anyway" argument.

As you pointed out, look at Castro.

14 posted on 01/10/2007 5:07:13 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (Go Gators! NCAA Football and Basketball Champions!)
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To: jazusamo; kanawa; Thunder90; Hill of Tara; Victoria Delsoul; Army Air Corps; monkeywrench; cll; ...


PING – Hugo is at it again!

Please FReepmail me if you would like on/off the Hugo/Venezuela Ping list.

HugoPing Archive

15 posted on 01/10/2007 6:44:46 PM PST by proud_yank (Socialism - An Answer In Search Of A Question For Over 100 Years)
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