Expert predicts 14 named storms in 2007 ("above average activity")

AP on Yahoo ^ | 12/8/06 | AP

[NormsRevenge]

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, with three major hurricanes and a good chance at least one of them will make landfall, a top hurricane researcher said Friday.

Colorado State forecaster William Gray predicted 14 named storms and a total of seven hurricanes next year.

He and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said there is a 64 percent chance of one of the major hurricanes — with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater — coming ashore. The long-term average probability is 52 percent, they said.

Still, they said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall next year than in the devastating 2005 season, which had 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The worst was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

The 2006 season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered a "near normal" season but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists. None hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

Gray and Klotzbach said last month that a surprise late El Nino contributed to the calmer June-to-November hurricane season this year.

El Nino — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there, Gray said.

Gray's team said Friday those conditions are likely to dissipate before the next season but Klotzbach cautioned, "this is an early prediction."

Gray said he believes the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle, despite the calm 2006 season.

"This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925," he said.

Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based consortium of weather, insurance and risk-management experts, on Thursday forecast an active 2007 season, with up to 16 tropical storms including nine hurricanes, four of them intense.

___

On the Net:

Colorado State hurricane forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Wrong last year.
Eventually they will be right if they keep saying it year after year.

[fatnotlazy]

If it does happen, it will all be Bush's fault, ya know. :)

[Right Cal Gal]

Bush and the Rovian Weather Machine.

[NormsRevenge]

A manatee swims in a flooded backyard near Kings Bay, June 13, 2006, in Crystal River, Fla. The storm surge from the effects of Tropical Storm Alberto flooded low lying areas in Citrus County. A comparatively slow Atlantic hurricane season will close uneventfully Thursday, more than two months since the last named storm formed and in stark contrast to a record-breaking 2005 season that finished with thousand still homeless along the gulf. Nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major, formed the 2006 season. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara, File)

[fatnotlazy]

Well, we had an active season in 2004 and 2005 -- then relatively quiet this year. So how do the enviro-whackos explain that? If it's caused by global warming or some other alleged deterioration of our environment, wouldn't each year be worse than the year before?

[ccc_jr]

yawn ... of course next years "el guapo" should change the wind patterns making less hurricanes then expected from the rampant global warming. Meanwhile, in the real world it feels like 1 in NY.

[The_Victor]

And the accuracy of previous predictions give me little cause to trust this new one....

[Mr. Lucky]

Ain't google great?

The perfessor predicted 17 named storms for 2006, 9 of which were gonna be hurricanes.

[fatnotlazy]

Bush and the Rovian Weather Machine.

***

Yes, and Dick Cheney too. :)

[Retired Chemist]

I'm going to wait to see what the folks from AccuWeather have to say. They got it right for 2006.

[Shermy]

IN reaction to this scary news, Sen. Barbara Boxer released this statement:

WE MUST INSTITUTE GLOBAL CARBON CAP 'N' TRADE NOW!! DEMOCRATS' EUROPEAN PARTNERS DEMAND IT, AND BEING EUROPEAN ARE SMARTER THAN US AND WOULDN'T BE SEEKING TO PULL A SCAM ON US!

[Dr. Bogus Pachysandra]

I thought this was one of the guys who are on our side! Isn't he? I believe he's very anti-global warming. Gotta go check..........

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Just like the 50 trillion hurricanes we had last year.

[Right Cal Gal]

It's all HALLIBURTON's fault!

[Howlin]

Not so fast...

[RobRoy]

I think this record has a skip in it.

[RetiredArmy]

I seem to remember they blew this year's guesses.

[aShepard]

I wonder if these guys are on the oil company payrolls???

Gotta prop up the futures prices before the offshore rigs face a bad hurricane season.

[Petronski]

How'd he do last year?


LOL