Posted on 12/02/2006 2:23:54 PM PST by freedom44
HAVANA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Fidel Castro's absence on Saturday from a major military parade in his honor was the surest sign yet that his 47-year-long reign as Cuba's undisputed leader has come to an end, experts said.
They said illness and old age had done what 10 U.S. presidents could not, clearing the way for his brother Raul Castro to take full command of the communist island.
Cuban officials have insisted he will recover from intestinal surgery in late July that forced him to temporarily turn over power to Raul, his longtime defense minister.
As late as Friday, Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage said in a closing ceremony for Castro's 80th birthday celebration that "Fidel is recovering, we will have him among us, he will continue leading."
But his inability this week to attend any of the birthday events, culminating with Saturday's parade in Havana's Revolution Square, says otherwise, analysts said.
"I think Dec. 2 clearly marks the end of the Fidel era. We have now unambiguously entered a new post-Fidel phase in the revolution," said Frank Mora, a professor of national security strategy at the National War College in Washington.
Castro has not been seen in public for more than four months, and looked feeble in the few photos and videos the government has released, leading many analysts to predict a reduced role for him in the future.
But they still watched closely this week to see if the bearded revolutionary who has survived war and assassination attempts and been a fixture on the world scene since 1959 might show up at his birthday celebration in better health.
Even after he sent a message to an opening birthday gala on Tuesday saying he was not up to attending, many experts and Cubans thought he would show up for the military parade, the kind of grand occasion at which he has reveled in the past.
TRANSITION 'A DONE DEAL'
Now it is obvious, said Latin American expert Julia Sweig of the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington, "Fidel really is not well enough to make public appearances of the sort that the Dec. 2 events involve."
"The transition (of power) is a done deal," she said.
Cuba's future is now in the hands of Raul Castro, a behind-the-scenes figure who took center stage on Saturday instead of his brother and, analysts said, brings with him the prospect of change.
In a speech at the parade's start, he did not mention Fidel Castro's condition or absence, instead praising the military as the "soul of the revolution" and blasting the arch-enemy United States for numerous transgressions, including its long-standing trade embargo on Cuba.
But he also said Cuba was disposed to negotiate with the United States about their differences, which Dan Erikson of the Washington think tank Inter-American Dialogue said "marks a significant departure from Fidel's long-standing preference for conflict and confrontation."
Most analysts have said they expect Raul Castro, 75, to undertake gradual economic reforms to address discontent among ordinary Cubans who earn an average of just $15 a month.
He has made the military into a virtual corporation with holdings in agriculture, industry and tourism to raise revenue for its operations and is believed to be more practical about the economy than his brother.
"Fidel Castro really does not have an interest in things like economic growth or GDP or competition. All those things that are the motors and measures of a capitalist economy to him are completely anathema," Sweig said.
"So his absence is an opportunity for some economic space."
he probably has to wait until his brother is actually dead to do anything this big, if he indeed wants to. The fact we have a trade embargo on cuba and not on, say, china, is simply absurd though completely consistent with realpolitik. It is a major pride issue for the US (castro did after all have soviet nukes under local (soviet or cuban) control during the missile crisis, and embarrassed the US in the bay of pigs 'event,') but at this point it is counter-productive if he is in fact gone.
The only ones who will get rich are the Cuban business moguls in Miami who have been planning for deacades to rape and pillage the island.
"The fact we have a trade embargo on cuba and not on, say, china, is simply absurd though completely consistent with realpolitik. "
should real completely consistent with the desires and interests of the fortune 100. realpolitik from a national standpoint would not be our current relations with china.
Ah, of course. The classless society of true equality looked among all it's brother and sister workers and in one voice cast their no-need-for-Diebold vote: "Um, Raul?"
geez...won't this guy die already.....he has been hanging on dead longer than the star of weekend at bernies!!!
"geez...won't this guy die already.....he has been hanging on dead longer than the star of weekend at bernies!!!"
ROFLOL!!
Yes, just imagine what $22.50 a month could do!
LOL, just kidding...
Looks like Fidelito is going out with a whimper. How fitting...
Zarf, I think you must have missed the raping and pillaging that has already taken place in Cuba. What pray tell do you think moguls are going to steal from the Cubans?
If big money does come to Havana, all boats will float.
I would just hope that when that heppened, the Cuban government would modernize their policies to make sure growth was productive and free from crime.
Through a special program I've personnally sponsored several polical refugee families from Cuba. It can be extremely rewarding but can also be an emotional roller coaster. The plain fact that generations of Cubans have been ruined but recovery will succeed. My son is currently working on a documentary about the road to new lives in the Cuban community.
I suspect there will be revenge killings as soon as Castro is gone( he will be buried in a secret place for obvious reasons). Unless the US steps in for the upcoming revolt the tourist from Europe will be in danger too.
For what it's worth I've been told Chavez has sent secret troops to Cuba...
There was a thread here recently about Cuban shipyard workers who were virtual slaves at an Aruba yard which was doing repairs on cruise ships, and which has ties to a Florida company.
Just think of the possibilities if Cuba is allowed to get that "most favored nation" status. Those workers can then be employed at home, benefitting Cuban companies with "ties" to American companies. Everybody will get rich except the workers.
It just seems so wrong that Fidel will die in his own bed of natural causes.
You sound like a commie. Those cuban business moguls had everything taken from them. They are the movers of shakers of the old Cuba. They are planning to go home and reclaim their land and businesses.
Why do you talk about Cubans in this country with such disdain?
PS
How can you rape and pillage that which has been raped and pillaged beyond recognition anyway?
I know Cubans who fled Castro, came here and built wonderful lives as professionals and business people. They love their families, are kind and generous, warm and decent.
And have been waiting over 40 years to go home and take back what was stolen from them.
Eisenhower: Don't
Kennedy: Worry,
Johnson: Castro
Nixon: Will
Ford: Be
Carter: Out
Reagan: Of
Bush: Power
Clinton: Soon...
Bush: Really!
Qwinn
Thank you. Speaking as a child of Cuban exiles, I appreciate the defense. There doesn't seem to be anywhere safe from Castro's propaganda machine, does there?
Qwinn
Make that 9 out of 10 US presidents since I doubt Jimmy Carter ever did a darned thing that would even displease the old communist dictator.
Your are welcome. The Cubans I know who fled Castro, I know a few of them, are wonderful, smart, loving, generous people. I cannot wait to see them able to return home and rebuild their country.
Had to check the website, thought I was on DU for a moment.
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