Posted on 11/29/2006 6:44:22 PM PST by ex-Texan
Yes, it's so pathetic, it's painful!
You were CAUGHT by us "dimwits" in more lies than Bill Clinton has ever told, so now you hedge and backpedal, and lie some more.
Monex was quoted back at you, long ago and you were still claiming that there was never a price quoted to you, when you bought gold, just your storage fees.
You're the one who keeps proving, with every single post, that you are a phony.
Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria, Bolivia
Other nations are reducing their US treasury and dollar holdings. Now they are reducing USD holdings by about 50%. These nations are:
China, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, United Arab Emirates
(Dubai moved $ 13.5 billion out of the US stock markets immediately).
China plans to increase its gold holdings by 146% in 2007.
The dollar is no longer the standard currency of the world. As of October 1st, Russia now rivals Saudi Arabia as the top oil producer in the world. Putin is calling back ownership of assets held in other nations.
17% of the worlds currency needs to be sent to the U.S. to support our national debt. That is over $ 1.62 billion a day. In the meantime, we are exporting more and more manufacturing jobs overseas. Over 320,000 jobs left the U.S. in the first part of November.
And the Fed no longer publishes its M3 statistics. $ 100,000,000,000 is being floated in U.S. stock market derivatives. Derivatives are basically debt. "Nothing going on here in my neck of woods."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_i7yWizHhg
Summary: At least five Major Bubbles that drive the U.S. economy are about to collide and cause havoc. A Bubble Quake is coming. The housing bubble. Dollar bubble. What are some of the others? Stock Market. Gold. Oil. Credit. Take your pick.
"Nothing to see here. Time to move on," is becoming a cue to naysayers to plunge their heads into the sand.
Call up Monex you ignorant fool. After you do, you will realize that you will once again be forced to decide whether to apologize or continue being a dirty, rotten scoundrel.
I agree with everything you said, except that the dollar is still the standard currency. But it is undergoing a challenge by the nations you just mentioned (for both economic and political reasons), and if it keeps falling, the remaining nations will be doing more than mildly reducing their currency holdings. If the dollar breaks 3% below .8050 for more than a few days, it will precipitate a full blown selling panic IMO.
Watch energy prices very carefully this winter. The black, greasy stuff is now selling for slightly over $ 63/ bbl in Europe. In January, 2004, oil was selling for slightly over $ 30 / bbl. By the end of 2004, it was selling for over $ 39. In 2005, it went up to $ 58. Watch what is about to happen (not including Iran's recent threats to Israel). Venezuela wants OPEC to curtail production again. Chavez is going to stop exporting oil to the U.S. pretty soon. He may close down all those CITGO stations and just walk away.
The entire middle east is a tinder box. The Hezzies are looking for a match.
You're right. According to Sinclair, the current uptrend in oil has $70-plus written all over it (the gold, silver, USD, and Euro charts are looking very interesting too!):
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/3862_Charts011206-1.pdf
Name calling now? Back to being juvenile, are you?
I still want to know how you can borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars, on a credit card, and NOT have to pay it back. I'd also REALLY like to know just HOW you pay your bills with paper profits.
BTW...........unlike you, I am neither "ignorant" nor a "fool".
And since you haven't managed to notice, none of my FRIENDS "defend" me. We all post to you separately and to each other the same way. You produce hours of sustainable laughter and some head shaking.
That is so correct.
Actual gold and platinum? Not futures? Over what time frame?
Is this your source? Greenspan Has Taken the Horse to the Water
I thought Antal E. Fekete was a clown before, this proves it.
Let's use a simple example, you hold a 1 year bond with a coupon rate of 5%. The "market yield" on 1 year bonds is 5%. Your bond trades at par (priced at $1000).
You borrow Yen at 1% and buy the bond. If you hold until maturity, you'd earn $50 interest on the bond, owe $10 interest on your Yen loan and after converting your dollar proceeds back to Yen, net a $40 profit, assuming no transaction costs and no currency fluctuations.
The purpose of the exercise is to drive up the price of dollar-bonds to the unheard-of heights of yen-bonds. Note the double-whammy. In addition to the unearned income of 4 percent the speculator will pocket huge capital gains after bond prices appreciate.
In this example, there is no capital gain because you held to maturity. In Antal's world, buying drives up the price, allowing you to sell (without driving down the price) at a huge profit. Profiting from the yield disparity and the capital gain.
Better still, the rising yen turns the double-whammy into a triple-whammy. The falling dollar makes the terms of trade for the speculator improve.
Here's where he starts to lose it. You've borrowed Yen, let's say 100 Yen to the dollar, 100,000 Yen total, (and sold them to buy dollars) and now the Yen rises. Say the Yen rises 10%, 100 Yen buys $1.10. In my 1 year example, you've earned $50 interest on the bond, but now your $1050 proceeds only buys 95454.54 Yen to pay off the loan, 100,000 Yen plus 1,000 Yen interest. You still owe 5545.45 Yen. A loss of 5.545%.
True, he will have a loss on the short leg of the trade, namely, loss due to the rising exchange rate. In percentage terms this loss is in the order of one-digit.
Yeah, 5.545% is only one digit.
But profits on the long leg, the portfolio of dollar-bonds, are in the order of triple-digit. With these odds, why should he care about losses on the short leg?"
This is funny! Let's see how we can get triple digit profits on a long bond. Use my 1 year bond example, just for simplicity sake. 1 year bond, 5% coupon bought at par. So many "speculators" buy these bonds because "the FED telegraphs that they will ensure bond prices keep going up" that the yield drops to 1%, the same as the Yen borrow costs. If Antal believes the bond is now priced at $5000, making the $50 interest payment a 1% yield, that explains his "triple digit profit" theory. How does it work in the real world?
When the $1000 par bond matures, you get $1,000, plus your final interest payment, $25 (they pay twice a year). So, a 5% coupon bond in a 1% interest environment would not be priced at $5000, but closer to $1040. You'd "lose" the $40 premium over the next year and receive the $50 in interest to net $10, or 1% (forgive my slight rounding errors).
In my estimation, a $40 capital gain on the bond, assuming you sold after rates instantly dropped from 5% to 1%, gives you a 4% capital gain, not a triple digit capital gain.
Now, even assuming that rates drop from 5% to 1%, instantly, is a bond trader going to buy a 5% bond if the "real" inflation rate is 8.5%?
I apologize to everyone for the length of my post, my earlier, shorter posts were apparently too difficult to understand.
When you call me a liar point out what you think I lied about. I don't think you can, so would makes you a false accuser/liar. When I call someone a liar, I always point it out. ex-Texan was a liar on his original headline in which he claimed Florida saw a 44% decline in housing prices, which was just one county. Florida has actually seen an increase in home prices since the beginning of the year.
Major bingo on-spot sentence of the morning.
I wonder how many understand the components of the CPI, and alternate goods. If they did, they've have a far better understanding of stocks, inflation, valuation, and economic policy.
Notice how no one involved in this discussion will tackle that one. You simply can not pay too much of a percentage for housing and still be economically viable. It's been my main argument all along. And, for the record, I am NOT a gold bug. Buying gold or holding securities tied to gold will not solve the investment problem.
That is so Not Correct. As I posted earlier. If I make 10K a month, you think its impossible for me to live on my 5K after housing dollars. (50%). However, I make 5K a month, living on $3.3K is doable (33%).
It just depends where ones priorities is.
I met this guy and kid in Hilton Head one year. They would read the obits, rush in and offer the widow a pittance on her condo so she could go back up north. Then flipped it.
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