Posted on 11/20/2006 9:47:58 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
AP Home Sales Plummet in 38 States in 3Q
Monday November 20
By Lauren Villagran, AP Business Writer
Third-Quarter Home Sales Plummet in 38 States During the Summer; Home Prices Also Tumble
NEW YORK (AP) -- The feeble U.S. housing market showed more frailty when third-quarter home sales plummeted in 38 states, hitting Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California particularly hard, government data showed on Monday.
The once-booming real estate market's persistent weakness over the past year has reined in expectations for economic growth but hasn't been severe enough to offset a rising stock market, lower gas prices and improved consumer expectations.
The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes fell in 38 states during the summer. Sales retreated to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.27 million units nationwide, down by 12.7 percent from the same period a year ago. Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California led the declines.
Home prices also dropped: The realtors' survey showed that the midpoint price for an existing home sold during the summer dipped 1.2 percent year over year to $224,900. Some 45 metropolitan areas saw home prices decline.
Meanwhile, the latest report of building permits showed the slowest pace of annual growth in nine years in October. Housing construction slid sharply as builders tried to curb swelling inventories of unsold new and existing homes.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, said he thinks the housing market still hasn't reached its low point.
"I think the permits numbers point to yet another flight of stairs down on housing before we hit the basement," he said. "On the other side, stocks are rising, consumer confidence is good and jobs are rising. Those factors are keeping this decline in housing contained."
A closely watched indicator of future economic activity release Monday provided further evidence of that trend.
The Conference Board, an industry-backed research group based in New York, reported Monday that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.2 percent in October. Increased real money supply and improved consumer expectations helped offset the sharp decline in housing permits and weaker vendor performance.
"The economy is growing more slowly, but we have yet to have weakness spread beyond housing and motor vehicles to such a degree that we need to fear the proximity of a hard landing," said John Lonski, chief economist of Moody's Investor Service, referring to when the economy turns from growth to a recession.
The housing market slowdown has weighed on the leading indicators index this year. But all told, strengths and weaknesses in the leading indicators have been roughly balanced, according to the Conference Board report. The index stood at 138.3 versus 139.1 in January -- its peak so far this year. The index has declined four of the last seven months.
The Conference Board's labor economist, Ken Goldstein, said the October index suggests "the economy is unlikely either to reheat or to get significantly cooler."
"Instead, the kind of slow growth now being experienced could continue right through the winter and into the spring," Goldstein said.
In another sign of moderating economic growth, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last month at 5.25 percent for the third straight session. The Fed had raised interest rates 17 times beginning in June 2004 to stave off inflation, before halting its campaign of credit-tightening in August.
What? Democrats getting control hasn't caused manna to fall from heaven yet?
Report Says Ex-CEO Karatz Could Get $175M Despite Leaving KB Home Amid Scandal
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Bruce Karatz, who stepped down last week as chief executive of KB Home, could get as much as $175 million in severance pay, pension benefits and stock options despite leaving the homebuilder amid a stock option controversy, according to a published report.
The multimillion dollar windfall, experts say, may be possible in part because Karatz wasn't fired. The 61-year-old agreed to retire Nov. 12 and repay KB Home $13 million after an internal report concluded the home construction company incorrectly reported stock option grants.
According to KB Home's proxy statement, Karatz would get a severance pay equal to the sum of what he earned in salary and incentives over the last three years -- roughly $80 million, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Karatz also has a special executive pension plan guaranteeing him $1 million a year for up to 25 years in retirement, and vested stock options that aren't in dispute worth about $70 million, the newspaper reported.
"He might not like the hit to his reputation, but he's certainly not going to take one to his bank account," said Patrick McGurn, general counsel of Institutional Shareholder Services.
Mark Fabiani, a lawyer for the KB Home board, refused to tell the newspaper whether directors would move to revoke Karatz's severance pay or retirement benefits. He said those discussions would take place, but haven't begun.
Thye Times said lawyers for KB Home wouldn't comment.
The board concluded Karatz and former human resources chief Gary A. Ray "selected grant dates under the company's stock option plans," the company said. It did not directly accuse Karatz of wrongdoing. Ray was fired.
Karatz was the latest corner-office victim of so-called backdating of employee stock options without properly accounting for the maneuver. So far, at least 30 executives and directors have lost their jobs at a number of companies.
I get a "link not found" there.
Check out the mega condo project just starting construction in downtown Bellevue in the city of Seattle.
www.bravernresidences.com
This thing has bust written all over it. Its about three years late to the party.
True, but most investors in the stock market aren't leveraged 10:1 or 20:1 like in real estate.
The housing bust, however, is deflation.
The more deflation, the lower the price of gold...not exactly a great investment in such a climate.
I disagree. The triple deficits and currency diversification (a la Red China, etc) will cause the dollar to plummet. Gold is tracking the inverse of the dollar. That's how I'm placing my bets anyway. But I will admit, there is a pretty big debate over whether we are heading for deflation or stagflation. I'm leaning towards the latter (especially considering the current head of the FED).
How can you disagree?! Either the Dollar plummets (e.g. inflation), or else home prices plummet (e.g. deflation). You can't have the Dollar increasing and decreasing at the same time, so pick one (inflation or deflation).
I did. I'm betting on stagflation.
1) Skyrocketing insurance premiums with no end to increases in sight.
2) Incredible tax assessments due to the previous boom. Those with Homestead Exemption are insulated, but those with winter homes and businesses are getting creamed.
3) Realty speculation: Doooooomed! DOOOOMED! Unless you're in the market for foreclosures. Many, many "Me too'ers" are going to get creamed. Especially those who overextended, overpaid and financed via questionable mortgage programs.
4) Dump of surplus into a flooded market. Right now people are either A) Fine with no problem B) Speculators trying to save their hides C) Developers trying to move surplus inventory D) Formerly long term residents who have been priced out of their homes by insurance E) Snowbirds who refuse to be strangled financially by cutthroat taxes levied on those without homestead exemption and the double whammy of insurance premiums.
Mixed bag down here. Florida is a questionable destination until we settle affairs over insurance and taxes. Businesses are facing up to a 600% increase in insurance premiums. Residents face 200% increases. My own policy will double 3 times in 3 years. It's a hostile environment for those looking for a stable financial sitiation. The state is current FUBAR'd in the best of the third world tradition.
'Wow! 1.2%... The sky is falling. The stock market goes up and down more than that in a day.'
"True, but most investors in the stock market aren't leveraged 10:1 or 20:1 like in real estate."
Roughly 25% of resident-owned homes have no mortgage, so their owners can ignore this mess as long as they are pleased with the "housing services" they are consuming. Such people do not tend to see their houses as "investements" but as durable consumption items.
Borrowers with 30% to 99% equity, will only risk their paper equity shrinking, as long as they can keep up their payments, and they are maybe 40% to 50% of the owner-occupants.
The rest, with less equity or none, and the investors in their loans, stand to lose a lot when local markets trend downwards, or even stop appreciating, especially markets in which 20% to 30% or more of recent transactions are "flippers", hot money hoping to turn a quick profit while never occupying the property. They could easily see 20% to 30% declines that wipe out their equity and leave them with loan balances far more than they can sell the property for. Depending on the state, either they, or their lenders, or both, are in deep doo-doo. Note that, until recently, national average home prices had not sustained a negative growth rate since the 1930's depression, yet a number of regional busts sent home prices down 25-40 percent. "Housing markets are local" (though financing of housing has become national and global thanks to the secondary market for mortgage loans that has grown very large in recent years).
In the past five years, a fairly large percent of new mortgage loans have been 10%, 5%, or even less down (the 0% down, or nothing down, with 15% or 25% cash on top were popular for a while, but not so common now). In the last couple of years "nothing down" deals have become very common, effectively "infinite" leverage.
Whether covered by mortgage insurance, or set up with an 80% LTV first lien and a 10% or 15% second lien, and perhaps with a HELOC at or soon after closing that eliminates the borrower equity altogether, these deals are losses waiting to happen if the borrower's employment or other income sources are disrupted. Unlike stock exchanges where "He who takes what isn't his'n, gives it back or goes to prison", residential borrowers in many states can walk, leaving the investors in their loans holding the bag, with no penalty other than a (temporarily) trashed credit rating which will recover in three or four years (credit scores focus on events of the past few years, and old indiscretions rapidly fade in influence as they age). In many cases, their credit rating was already trashed when they got their loan (so they have little to lose by defaulting), because secondary market aggregators have found plenty of naive capital, 'yield hogs', willing to buy the toxic waste (speculative grade mortgage bonds) that must be sold in order to make most of the bonds backed by mortgage pools with heavy doses of such crappy loans palatable to "investment grade" lenders.
Over the next few years, these "yield hog" will be retching up their gains, and lose quite a few pounds in the process.
The credit bubble is a much bigger concern for the economy.
Since the Fed prefers inflation over deflation we just keep creating more and more risky debt and lurch from one asset bubble to the next.
If they're not careful the bottom will fall out of the reserve dollar and the party will be so over.
BUMP
Even worse are the super low payment ARMS with negative amortization that lenders get to put on their books like regular loans. Nothing like seeing the last three years profit go up in smoke overnight because it was a figment of your imagination anyway.
Florida as extremely high property taxes which are based on full market value of your property. County Tax appraisers used to have some leeway to asses your property under full market value but now state law makes them assess it at 100 percent.
Most of the the counties in Florida have property tax rates of 2 percent or more. In Calif, since Prop 13, the property tax rate is capped at 1 percent.
An income tax is based on your income, so you dont pay any income taxes in a bad year.Of course, property taxes are due every year even if you make little or no income.
Abusive property taxes like we have in Florida are far worse than a progressive income tax.
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