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HAS OUR TIME COME? (Blame CATO/Libertarians for this election result)
CATO Institute by way of Heretical Ideas.com ^ | 10/24/2006 | Tom Traina

Posted on 11/08/2006 8:08:12 AM PST by Matchett-PI

Has Our Time Come? http://www.hereticalideas.com/

A **new study from the Cato Institute [see link below] suggests that libertarians might be the new swing vote.

The libertarian vote is in play. At some 13 percent of the electorate, it is sizable enough to swing elections. Pollsters, political strategists, candidates, and the media should take note of it.

After examining the relevant polling data, Cato concludes that libertarians and libertarian sympathizers constitute somewhere between 10 and 20% of the American population. Some explanations are offered as to why libertarians constitute such a bigger constituency than one might expect. First is that libertarians tend not to be as well-organized as other interest groups. Most groups that organize and try to exert political influence want some sort of government action: unions want favorable labor laws passed, the Christian Coalition wants abortion outlawed and anti-homosexual laws passed, environmentalists want pollution restricted and ecosystems protected, businesses want favorable tax and commercial laws. Libertarians generally don’t want government to take action, and are therefore less likely to organize into a pressure group because of that. It also argues that the difficulty people have in breaking out of the left-right liberal-conservative paradigm of politics keeps “populists” (authoritarians) and libertarians underrepresented. While most political scholarship accepts the inadequacy of a simple one-dimensional view of politics, it hasn’t sunk down into popular culture as strongly. Often talk shows and debate programs on television and radio will feature someone “from the left” and someone “from the right”, squeezing libertarians out of the picture.

An unexplored reason that might contribute is the higher prevalence of libertarianism among younger people than older people. The Cato paper notes this statistic but doesn’t explore its relationship to voter turnout. It explains the phenomenon this way. Younger people were more influenced by 2 of the most significant individualist movements of the 20th century: the ’60s counter culture and the ’80s Reagan Revolution. As a result, younger generations have seen both the socially liberal and the economically conservative side of individualism and turn to libertarianism as a way to emulate both ideals. The downside is that since younger people in general are less likely to vote, libertarians wind up underrepresented at the polls.

But don’t libertarian have to swing their votes to become a swing vote? Well, more and more frequently libertarian-minded people are losing the loyalty to the party they usually vote for (mostly the GOP), which puts their vote as a bloc in play.

Many commentators noted the high turnout in the 2004 election. Nationally, voter turnout increased 6.1 percent. That might help explain some of the swing in 2004. According to ANES data, libertarians reported turning out to vote at higher percentages than total respondents in 2000 and even higher in 2004.

This libertarian swing trend is particularly pronounced by age. Libertarians aged 18–29­ many of whom were new voters in 2004­ voted 71–42 for Kerry. Libertarians aged 30–49 voted almost completely the reverse, 72–21 for Bush.

Going back to the generational argument, I imagine that older individuals who can remember a time when the religious Right wasn’t nearly as omnipresent of a force in the Republican Party and therefore don’t automatically associate it with tirades about the moral dangers of homosexuality and feticide. So I can understand younger libertarians leaning more democratic than older ones who might remember the time of more Goldwater-like or even maybe Reagan-like Republicans.

What does all this mean in practical terms? What will we see coming out of the major political parties Conservatives resist cultural change and personal liberation; liberals resist economic dynamism and globalization. Libertarians embrace both. The political party that comes to terms with that can win the next generation.

It would really be great to see both political parties converge to a libertarian center. But as the article points out, the nature of libertarians makes them much harder to corral than other groups, which makes attracting us to their political parties a far more expensive and riskier proposition than going after churchgoers and soccer moms. Perhaps in time it will happen. But I doubt it will happen very soon.

** http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1718392/posts


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cato; catoinstitute; election2006; liberaltarians; libertarians; tomtraina; waaaahmbulance
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To: AmishDude
You seem to be enjoying lying in the bed you have made.

I voted conservative. Across the board. My conscience is clear.

Your's seems to be bugging you about something though.

81 posted on 11/08/2006 8:49:01 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Anyone who needs to be persuaded to be free, doesn't deserve to be.)
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To: N3WBI3
Lets keep ignoring the border

The border has been addressed. Now because of the worthless loosertarians, it probably won't get funded.

Lets keep the sex scandals coming

Foley was out the day it was found out. What more do you want? Do you want Republicans to fall on their swords because of someone else's actions?

That will help the conservative cause..

Getting rid of a bunch of whinny, fickle, cut and run isolationists, perpetually unhappy loosertarians would help the Republican party immensely.
82 posted on 11/08/2006 8:49:25 AM PST by dbehsman (NRA Life Member, and loving every minute of it!)
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To: Matchett-PI
Do you, and others like you, not see the logical fallacy in your insistence that libertarians are all liberals and if they didn't vote for Libertarians, 100% of their votes would go to the Republicans?

Whatever you're smoking to allow you to reach that conclusion is most likely illegal.

83 posted on 11/08/2006 8:49:26 AM PST by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: jjm2111
Maybe if the GOP actually engaged in fiscal conservatism, people w/ libertarian leanings might be inclined to vote for them.

EVERYONE would vote for them except the far, far left wing socialist/communists. Conservatism ALWAYS wins. Even the democrats this election ran as social conservatives. They got it only half right, and they still won.

84 posted on 11/08/2006 8:49:29 AM PST by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
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To: Matchett-PI
"They could only help the Soros-funded, anti-war, hate-America crowd win last night because of one thing -- the blood that has been shed by our brave military men who fought to preserve their freedom to stab them in the back. As far as I'm concerned, they have blood on their hands. bttt

Dude, I served over there and resent b.s. like this. How does pork and political correction and illegal alien amnesty help this country?

85 posted on 11/08/2006 8:49:48 AM PST by jjm2111 (http://www.purveryors-of-truth.blogspot.com)
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To: dcam

That about sums it up.


86 posted on 11/08/2006 8:50:54 AM PST by TankerKC (I Predict that over 50% of the Major Party Candidates Will Lose on Election Day!)
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To: Matchett-PI

Libertarians are rats with another name.


87 posted on 11/08/2006 8:52:32 AM PST by Libertina
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To: PjhCPA
"God I hope so. Isn't that what FreeRepublic is all about?"

FreeRepublic is, and always has been a conservative site, not a libertarian site. There's a huge, huge difference.
88 posted on 11/08/2006 8:52:43 AM PST by DesScorp
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To: concerned about politics

I personally think that with REAL fiscal restraint, many problems would fix themselves. It's social conservatism that turns so many swing voters off.


89 posted on 11/08/2006 8:53:06 AM PST by jjm2111 (http://www.purveryors-of-truth.blogspot.com)
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To: Landru
"Instead of the "GOP" working *with* the Libertarians (& Constitutionalists etc) since they share MUCH more in common than have differences?
The GOP -- apparently -- simply refuses.
So it only seems just the GOP reap the harvest....they sow."

I agree with you assessment completely!!
90 posted on 11/08/2006 8:53:35 AM PST by LM_Guy
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To: dbehsman
The border has been addressed

Hardly. They approved the building of a wimpy fence over a small percentage of our border, but they failed to fund it.

91 posted on 11/08/2006 8:55:06 AM PST by rivercat (The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers. - William Shakespeare)
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To: Dead Corpse

What conscience? Are you the ugly teenage girl who is proud of having maintained her virginity?

Well good for you, then. May your sense of smug self-satisfaction lead you all the way to the opposite of what you say you want.


92 posted on 11/08/2006 8:55:43 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: jjm2111

Ask the Dems, because now you will get more!


93 posted on 11/08/2006 8:56:28 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: LM_Guy
I am glad some of my fellow Libertarians screwed some of the huge defict spending GOP'ers out of office !!!!

This is why I don't think courting the loosertarian vote is even worth it. We are engaged in a global war on terror, we have had to deal with many natural disasters in this country, but you're all worked up over the fact that the budget isn't balanced. That precious budget of yours is not going to mean a damn thing if terrorists start touching off nukes in this country.

Another thing, that tax cut sure went in one ear and right out the other with you didn't it? When your taxes go up, don't complain. You will get what you wanted.
94 posted on 11/08/2006 8:57:03 AM PST by dbehsman (NRA Life Member, and loving every minute of it!)
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To: dcam
"Hardly. They approved the building of a wimpy fence over a small percentage of our border, but they failed to fund it."

I'm sure the Democrats will do far better with that issue. They'll probably even ask Tom Tancredo to head a Task Force regarding it.

95 posted on 11/08/2006 8:57:41 AM PST by CWOJackson
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To: AmishDude
What conscience?

Didn't think you'd know what that meant. Just keep pushing your liberal RINO's if you really want to entrench the Dems.

96 posted on 11/08/2006 8:57:54 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Anyone who needs to be persuaded to be free, doesn't deserve to be.)
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To: All

Well, the Democrats have the Green party

And our retarded cousin we keep locked in the basement are the Libertarians

They are so hell bent on voting based on a single issue as opposed to the bigger picture.

Small minded people incapable of seeing the bigger picture are often the most difficult to deal with.

Some one needs to explain to them that their actions last night will result in even less of their agenda from ever seeing the light of day in the next few years.


97 posted on 11/08/2006 8:58:05 AM PST by gjones77
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To: AmishDude
You seem to be enjoying lying in the bed you have made.

I voted Republican pretty much across the board, because I had conservative republicans to vote for...

98 posted on 11/08/2006 8:58:06 AM PST by N3WBI3 ("I can kill you with my brain" - River Tam)
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To: Matchett-PI

Maybe, maybe not. But as a multiterm incumbent, Burns made his own mistakes.


99 posted on 11/08/2006 8:58:33 AM PST by zendari
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To: DesScorp

A conservative site? What does that mean? Cheerleaders for the greatest expansion in big government for decades and a budget busting prescription drugs program?


100 posted on 11/08/2006 8:58:59 AM PST by Captain Kirk
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