Pew Research Center: GOP Cuts Democratic Lead in Generic Ballot (47%-43%)-- a TON of info here

Pew Research Center ^ | 11-5-06 | Pew Research Center

[GraniteStateConservative]

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters will be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. As many as 19% of voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided. The Democrats hold a 44% to 35% lead among committed voters. But the race is more even among voters who are less strongly committed to a candidate; those who only lean to a candidate divide almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats (5% lean Republican/4% lean Democrat).

Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.

The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents. As recently as mid-October, 47% of independent voters said they were voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 29% who favored the Republican. Currently, Democrats lead by 44%-33% among independent voters.

Notably, President Bush's political standing has improved in the final week before the election. Bush's job approval rating among registered voters has risen from 37% in early October, to 41% in the current survey. Mirroring the GOP's gains among independent voters, Bush's rating among this crucial group of swing voters now stands at 35%, its highest point this year.

The final pre-election survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 2,369 registered voters from Nov. 1-4, finds that voter appraisals of the national economy also have improved. In the current poll, 44% rate it as excellent or good, compared with 36% who held that view in mid-October. Republicans and independents have a much better view of the economy than they did just a few weeks ago. Among independent voters, 41% rate the economy as good or excellent, compared with 29% in mid-October.

In addition, Sen. John Kerry's "botched joke" about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks ­ with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry's statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate.

For months, Democrats have expressed more interest in the election and enthusiasm about voting than have Republicans. The 'enthusiasm gap' was dramatic in Pew surveys in early October (18 points) and late October (17 points).

These differences have narrowed considerably. About half of Democratic voters (51%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, little change from Pew's two previous surveys. By contrast, 42% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting; that is fewer than the percentage of Democrats more enthused about going to vote, but 10 points higher than just a few weeks ago.

Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.

While Republicans have become more engaged in the campaign in recent weeks, an increasing number also say that the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote. Currently, 65% of Republicans say partisan control of Congress is a factor in their vote, up from 58% in early October and 54% in June. The percentage of Democrats who view partisan control of Congress a factor in their vote has remained more stable; 73% say that, up slightly from early October, but largely unchanged from June.

Compared to past campaigns, many more voters, regardless of party affiliation, say partisan control of Congress matters in their vote. Fully 61% of registered voters now express this view; fewer than half did so in November 2002 (48%) and November 1998 (46%).

The situation in Iraq remains the top issue of the midterm elections. Roughly half of voters (48%) cite the situation in Iraq as either the most important (or second most important) issue in their vote. Roughly four-in-ten (42%) cite the economy as a major issue in their vote, while 35% say health care. These opinions have changed very little over the past month.

The situation in Iraq is by far the top issue for Democrats (60%). About half of independents (46%) cite Iraq as an important issue in their vote, but 41% mention the economy and 36% health care. Among Republicans, comparable percentages view terrorism (41%), the economy (41%), and the situation in Iraq (38%) as the top issue in their vote. Immigration is a much more important issue for Republicans (31%) ­ and independents (26%) ­ than it is for Democrats (15%).

The overall level of voter interest in this campaign is much higher than it has been for recent midterms. Fully 61% of voters say they have given a lot of thought to the election, while 33% say they have followed campaign news very closely. This far surpasses interest in the 2002 and the 1998 campaigns, and even the historic 1994 election, when the Republicans gained control of Congress.

At the same time, more voters feel that this election season has seen more "mud-slinging" than past elections. Overall, 65% of voters ­ 72% of those who live in congressional districts with competitive contests ­ say this campaign has been marred by more negative campaigning than in past elections; only about half of voters expressed this opinion at the end of the 2002 (51%) and 1998 (52%) midterms.

This is one issue on which there is little partisan division. Two-thirds of independents (67%), and nearly as many Democrats (65%) and Republicans (65%), say there has been more negative campaigning than in past elections.

Roughly six-in-ten voters (58%) say they have been contacted by candidates or political groups, either over the phone, in person, or by email. That represents a modest increase from early October (49%). Somewhat more Republicans (63%) than independents (58%) or Democrats (54%) say they have been contacted by campaigns. One-in-five Democrats (20%) say they have been urged to vote for a Democratic candidate. About the same number of Republicans (21%) say they have been urged to vote for one of their party's candidates; more Republicans than Democrats volunteer that they have been encouraged to vote for both GOP and Democratic candidates (19% vs. 14%).

All year, Democrats have been much more bullish than the Republicans regarding their party's electoral prospects. The gap has widened in the campaign's final days. Fully 72% of Democratic voters say they think the Democratic Party will do better this year than it has in recent elections, up slightly from last month.

Meanwhile, more Republican voters feel the party will do worse than it has in recent elections (29% now vs. 21% last month). A plurality of GOP voters (48%) say the party will fare about the same as it has in recent elections, while just 17% think the Republican Party will do better than it has in recent years.

[democrats_nightmare]

Please do...I so enjoy a DUmmie meltdown on a lazy Sunday.

Spot on! I love the smell of burning liberals in the morning...Thanks! DN

[Rameumptom]

I skipped some unnopposed DEMS too for local stuff.

My brother said once that the Dems are good at sheer numbers of candidates at every level. So somebody is bound to win sometime. While the GOP is better at leadership than sheer numbers of candidates. Not sure why the GOP lets little local stuff go unnopposed?

[SHOOT THE MOON bat]

I always skip the unopposed Dem races. I will NOT vote for those traitorous vermin, even for dog catcher.

Your lucky that all you have to skip is local stuff. I can't even vote for a congressman. Here in New Jersey the Republican don't even run a candidate against Rob Andrews.

[right-wingin_It]

Call a buddy...get their ass to the polls

[Peach]

I just told my husband this morning that if the election was a week from Tuesday, I think Republicans would safely keep the majority. The tide is turning slowly and the Saddam verdict is good news; I'm just not sure if there's time between this turning tide and the verdict for Tuesday's results to help them keep majority.

[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

Welcome home. It looks like the GOP is going to sweep nearly every statewide election (except maybe agriculture secretary).

[HardStarboard]

Don't suppose these new Pew results will appear anywhere above the fold in any major newspaper in the country!

Let me know if I'm wrong - would love to be!

[rlbedfor]

The last generic for tonight should be Gallup. My prediction is 47/45 Dims.

[FreedomNeocon]

The numbers they've been using all along have been phoney and it's only now that they have had to make a statistical correction.

Same tactic they always use... project 15 pts down in the hopes you effect a 5pt ACTUAL decline. This one has been in their playbook for 40 years...

[StarFan]

bookmark

[PghBaldy]

Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04 LV 43 47 Dems +4.0
Pew Research 10/17 - 10/22 1118 LV 39 50 Dems +11.0
Pew Research 09/21 - 10/04 1804 A 38 51 Dems +13.0
Pew Research 09/06 - 09/10 1191 RV 39 50 Dems +11.0

ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04 LV 45 51 Dems +6.0
ABC News/Wash Post 10/19 - 10/22 LV 41 55 Dems +14.0
ABC/Wash Post 10/05 - 10/08 LV & RV 41 54 Dems +13.0
ABC News 09/05 - 09/07 1003 A 42 50 Dems +8.0

[Dave S]

What is the basis for comparison here?

That both statements had the potentilal to change the vote of some voters. Kerry for obvious reasons and the statement about Rumsfeld could impact some Republican leaning independents in a negative way by highlighting the existing perception that Bush is unwillingness to try anything different in Iraq.

[Thickman]

For the first time ever I was polled by telephone. I told them that I am a Republican who is fed up with the party and am voting dumbocrat this time. I just love the thought that my response will be counted because that's what the pollsters want to hear. On Tuesday I will pull the Republican lever.

It is going to be real close in my district, NM 01 where this really dumb dumbocrat, Patsy Madrid, is running against Heather Wilson.

Go Heather!

[Question Liberal Authority]

I am still predicting a gain of 2 and 4 in the Senate and House, respectively.

I hope you're right. If so, I think the networks should be forced to fire one of its talking head pundits and replace them with you.

[Question Liberal Authority]

Chrissy Matthews just wet herself.

And that's different from every other day, how?

[Question Liberal Authority]

instead of having to explain their months of biased polls, they will now simply to refer to "late movement" toward the Rs due to Jon Cary's idiocy and Saddam's death sentence, maybe a couple of other factors.

I'm going to go out on a limb here:

"Right Wing Fear Mongering".

[Question Liberal Authority]

Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009.

What is the basis for comparison here? That they're both saying a wrong thing?

It's a complete non-sequitur, based, I think, on Bush Derangement Syndrome on the part of the "analyst". It helps them to defend the idea that the media isn't tilted toward the left, and, in fact, that's it's tilted toward the right.

The example that most readily comes to mind is John McCain losing the South Carolina primary in 2000. This is commonly chalked up to a "whisper campaign" among right wing kooks, while ALL EVIDENCE points to the fact that NOBODY CARED about John McCain's pet ISSUE of Campaign Finance Reform, while EVERYONE cared about Bush's pet issue of tax cuts.

The media's logic here is that, since they were having orgasms over McCain, that anyone who didn't vote for him must have been a racist or some sort of religious nut. Frankly, even if McCain-Feingold made sense, it wouldn't have been a sexy issue, any more than NBA Salary Cap Reform would be a sexier issue to NBA fans than, say, reducing the price of NBA tickets.

Anyway, I THINK the point of the original statement is that "Rumsfeld must be fired is a MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE than Kerry's botched joke, therefore the electorate was swayed by the right wing spin and attack machine."

Another example of this is the Dean Scream. It's alleged in moonbat circles that the REPORTING of the Dean Scream was overplayed and therefore biased. But the Dean Scream was universally funny. Even hard left people like Jay Leno and Jon Stewart milked it for all it was worth.

If the Pew Center was honest here, they'd be comparing the John Kerry "botched joke" to coverage of Rush Limbaugh's argument with Michael J Fox, and Mark Foley's naughty emails. Bush saying he won't fire Rumsfeld is like Bush saying he won't fire the Postmaster General.

[DM1]

"there were a couple of contests where the top three candidates win and there were only three candidates, all Dems, so they're guaranteed to win as long as they vote for themselves. I wouldn't even give them a vote; I skipped over that section and went to the next page."

next time write yourself in maybe have your family write you in too
you never know ;)

[RetiredArmy]

It is danged nice being home. After being behind enemy lines for 14 years I am finally happy and home. Plus, I met and rescued my wife from there. Her mother had moved there when my wife was 10 and she was stuck there all these long years also. We have been together for 12 happy years now, and she is now free at last also. It is really nice to be back in Dixieland where real people live. I was totally sick, physically ill, at those pukes in WA state. If the big one hits and it slips into the Pacific I will not cry. There are few conservatives there in Western WA, west of the Cascade Mts. Only Eastern WA is conservative, but there are way too few of them there. I loved the country, mountains, oceans, etc. But, hated the screaming, hating liberal pukes of Seattle. To hell with them. They can drop dead for all I care.