I'm Bursting (Hugh Hewit on R's winning Tuesday)

Hugh Hewitt ^ | 11/4/2006 | Hugh Hewitt

[Just_an_average_Joe]

My homeys at the Weekly Standard have published their election predictions, and they range from dire to calamitous. Meanwhile, I’m merrily skipping about Soxblog Manor (in a completely manly way, mind you) whistling a happy tune. I expect Tuesday to be an extremely successful day for the Republican Party.

[Rokke]

"This is not Repubclican year - "Flags of Our Fathers" is a Box Office Bomb."

This is going to come across as offensive, but I mean it in all sincerity. Your reasoning and logic are among the most pathetic I've witnessed on FR in recent memory. You think movie attendance is an indicator of voter turnout? Are you kidding me?!?! Shrek 2 was the top grossing movie of 2004. What was your prediction based on that profound bit of insight into the minds of American voters. And in case you've forgotten, George Bush was re-elected in 2004(despite all the dire predictions of his certain failure).

[taildragger]

MHT,

He ssems pretty confident we will hold the house and he thinks the big suprise will be Bouchard beats Stabenow in MI in the Senate Race. I am in MI and I am not as optimistic on that one as he is.

[leilani]

Re your excellent comment to me on the polls: you're right of course, & your approach is definitely the sanest. I do hope that a lot of the scary stuff out there puts the fear of Jesus in everybody; it sure did me. I'm the quintessential procrastinator, but I voted early for the first time ever just in case something happened or I got too busy. I'm hoping I'm not the only one out there & the MSM has to eat it with a steam shovel on Wed AM.

Meanwhile, I'll take your advice & tune it all out til the day after. No point in torturing ourselves.

[attiladhun2]

Hewitt travels around the country alot and is in touch with grass-roots Republicans. He probably has a far better grasp of the political situation than the Beltway Chatterboxes.

[HitmanLV]

And he is a very smart guy, too.

[Torie]

So what’s it all mean? In the tied races, the Republican will win. In the close races, the Republican will win. It adds up to Republicans running the table in the Senate. That’s right – running the table. Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island (whoopee), and Maryland will all send or re-send Republicans to the Senate. But wait, there’s more! Michigan will send Sheriff Michael Bouchard to the Senate. And in Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is in striking distance.

You nattering nabob of negativism you. The GOP is poised to gain seats!

I couldn't do what Hewitt does no matter what the pay.

[Torie]

Hewitt is a good lawyer, and smart as a whip. After all he got his JD from where I got mine, and that makes it per se res ipse loquitur. :) His partisan spin however frankly lacks much verisimilitude. It is more like RNC cheerleading. I really don't have the stomach for that myself. JMO.

[HitmanLV]

No, I disagree. There are some shameless GOP cheerleaders out there but Hugh isn't one of them. I listen to his show with some regularity, and I read his blog regularly also, and I don't think his insights into this election ring untrue. He isn't suggesting a huge GOP victory, or any such thing - he's been realistic but optimistic, and with polls coming down today showing the generic congressional ballot with a much thinner margin than the 10-13 points the MSM has been repeating for months, there is some gold in those hills.

Wait and see - I wouldn't be as dismissive about Double H as you are.

[Torie]

You don't think HH's prediction of the GOP sweeping the board of all the close Senate seats, plus Michigan too, with Pennslyvania as near ripe hanging fruit, is anything other than ludicrous I (yes he doesn't mention Ohio; I guess he concedes that one)?

[attiladhun2]

So you like some sour puss like Novak better? Hewitt, like Rush, wants his team to win. I feel the same way, which is why I have no use for all the negative Weiner Nation-types who seem to show up on FR at election time.

[Torie]

I prefer sober accuracy myself. But that is just me.

[HitmanLV]

No, not ludicrous. If you checked todays polls, you would see the clear momentum toward the GOP. Even Chafee may win (heaven help us).

Personally I don't expect it, particularly PA. But I see no reason as of right now the GOP can't win in TN, VA, NJ, MD, and MT. It may happen, it may not, but I won't dismiss it as ludicrous.

Not to mention the House. I don;t think the GOP will gain any seats, but I don;t think they will lose 15-20, either.

Like I said, wait and see.

[Torie]

I guess you don't buy Michigan either. Heck, it could be minus 3, it could be minus 6. Put me down at minus 4.5 myself.

[zbigreddogz]

I still think we might be in for a fairly bad day, but it won't be as bad as the media says.

I'll say this much: If we hold the house, EVERY THREAD on DU will be about how we 'stole' the election.

[HitmanLV]

I made my prediction a week ago with 222 GOP House Seats and 53 GOP Senate seats when the dust settles.

I saw the Michigan polls and I acknowledge that it suddenly tightened, but since I have not seen any convincing argument as to why it tighetend, I'll go with the conventional wisdom that it is a brain-dead and zombie voting democratic stronghold.

Wait and see. Good drama, if nothing else.

[JasonC]

I get 52 senators from that, the close ones are all nearly sure Republican things, when the actual to likely to registered skew of polls to votes is taken into consideration.

I went through their full listing of the house races and I get 207 definite holds and 28 too close to call, for the Republicans. If half of the too close to call races break our way we barely hold with 221 to 214. There is no sign of any epic swing, and even holding as many seats are we do now is distinctly possible. I think it is most likely we lose seats but barely hold, but I'd put the chance of a Dem squeaker takeover of that house at about 33-40%. The Senate, isn't going to happen.

[attiladhun2]

Well if you would bother listening to Hewitt carefully, you will find he does the sober analysis-thing quite well, and he does it cheerfully. That's what I prefer, but that's just me.