Real money prediction markets have a very good track record.
1 posted on
11/03/2006 3:34:28 PM PST by
oblomov
To: oblomov
I've been trying to put a tradesport ticker on my page. You know how to do it?
2 posted on
11/03/2006 3:39:30 PM PST by
MaineVoter2002
(If you dont vote on election day, then who are you electing?)
To: oblomov
A combination of bets on individual races would be a more useful predictor; each race in this scenario is independent of the other.
3 posted on
11/03/2006 3:40:02 PM PST by
kingu
(No, I don't use sarcasm tags - it confuses people.)
To: oblomov
this is the general idea behind darpa's terrorism event futures market, and at the theoretical level made very decent sense. I don't think it was intended to become a MSM target, and was gutted, at least publicly.
I don't think your post will be popular though.
To: oblomov
For those who feel very confident that the polls are oversampling Dems, you can pick up a GOP Senate / GOP House contract on Tradesports and quintuple your money if right.
To: oblomov
Real money prediction markets have a very good track record.As long as they have many participants. Tradesports markets haven't had the most extraordinary track record.
6 posted on
11/03/2006 3:43:38 PM PST by
Petronski
(CNN is an insidiously treasonous, enemy propaganda organ.)
To: oblomov
Real money prediction markets have a very good track record.People invested heavily in "Dot Coms" in the late 90's only to watch them fall apart, all the while sustained and supported by the Clinton adminstration.
Perhaps all these people "investing" are people who are simply following the liberal polls. Much the same way the Clinton regeime touted the "new economy" they are embracing a future as promoted by liberal polling.
And as we have seen so many times before, liberal hopes seldom reconcile with the reality of a given situation.
8 posted on
11/03/2006 3:48:12 PM PST by
Caipirabob
(Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
To: oblomov
Who did they predict for 2004? If they picked Jon Carry then we can take this with a very large grain of salt.
15 posted on
11/03/2006 3:54:30 PM PST by
VictoryGal
(Never give up, never surrender!)
To: oblomov
What information do you suppose predictive market betters use to place their bets? Polls right? Or do you think they somehow have some hot inside scoop that leads them to place bets without consideration of what the rest of us are reading. The bottomline is...they are nothing more than poll followers. If you believe the polls, you bet on democrats right now. It's as simple as that.
16 posted on
11/03/2006 3:54:56 PM PST by
Rokke
To: oblomov
Real money prediction markets have a very good track record.And the traders are basing their decisions on what? Polls?
19 posted on
11/03/2006 4:05:37 PM PST by
Fresh Wind
(Democrats are guilty of whatever they scream the loudest about.)
To: oblomov
Real money prediction markets have a very good track record. On election day 2004 bush was at about 20% at 8:00 PM EST on trade sports. Bad info in bad bets out.
21 posted on
11/03/2006 4:09:28 PM PST by
Mike Darancette
( Europe will either become Christian again or become Muslim. Not the "culture of nothing".)
To: oblomov; AntiGuv; Sam Spade
If your model is right, I am a genius, since my last public prediction was minus 21 for the House. Maybe I will just leave that one alone. :)
41 posted on
11/03/2006 7:13:28 PM PST by
Torie
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