Posted on 10/29/2006 9:24:34 PM PST by rhinohunter
On Monday President Bush flies into Houston to campaign for a congressional candidate who — at one point — looked like a long shot.
But an exclusive poll indicates that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs may pull off a political upset and win her write-in campaign for Congress.
(Excerpt) Read more at khou.com ...
Please remember a "likely voter" is dramatically "less likely" in on off-year election, and it's the less-informed that drop off. If you're going to have a successful write-in candidacy, you WANT an off-year election.
"Do you or anyone have a link to what will be accepted as a valid write-in?"
Found this on the net.
From the Texas Secretary of State (link provided below):
A write-in vote is counted if the election judge can determine the intent of the voter. If the voter misspells the write-in candidate’s name but the judge can determine the intent, the vote is counted. If the voter only writes in part of the name as it appears on the list but the judge can determine the intent of the voter, the vote is counted. Failure to write in the name as it exactly appears on the list does not invalidate the vote as long as the judge can determine the intent of the voter.
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2004-17.shtml
"My contacts in Houston tell me that Lampson has been saturating the airwaves with commercials the past week or two attacking Gibbs personally. I have little to explain why he would be doing this if the race was safe. (though I guess Lugar in Indiana advertising makes no sense either)"
ROFLMAO!!!
It's so helpful to have that $1 million in DNC money being used to increase Gibbs' name ID!
At the beginning of the Battle for Florida, they argued against "voter intent" with the miltary ballots.
Then they argued that divining "voter intent" from hanging chads was the foundation of Democracy.
And in 8 days, they will be arguing that mis-spelled names shouldn't count.
"Yes, but her name is listed on the ballot to serve Delay's remaining term. All one needs to do is look at the ballot for the name and the spelling."
With eSlate it is super-easy because as others have noted they will make a non-vote be in RED saying "NO VOTE".
9 out of 10 GOP voters are not idiots, they will notice the race, they will notice that the GOP candidate in the special was "GIBBS" and they will vote the right way.
I still find Lampson's low numbers somewhat humorous.
"We are already set to gain four Dem incumbent seats. I can barely find 10 GOP seats that are truly in play, meaning that at worst, it's -6, and at best, it's a gain."
Boy, you *are* the optimist! And from Ohio too!!
(IMHO, we will get killed in Ohio, but do okay elsewhere.
please tell me I'm wrong an Pryce and Ney's seat can be pulled out.)
"I voted in The Meadows this past Saturday. Judging by the time people were taking, it seemed as if everyone was writing her in. The names of write-ins are posted, so the spelling should not be a problem. There were a couple of volunteers outside the polling place to explain to people what to do. We talked about the difficuly of her keeping "Sekula" in her name. apparently, she was well-known as a doctor under her own name before she got married, and did not want her patients to lose track of her."
Question: If GIBBS is written in, will it count for her?
Yes, law says voter intent is what counts. I'm surrounded by signs for her, and I probably can't remember her name, and I'm a pretty good speller - but bad typer, so don't point out my mistakes. Ok? :)
"I have read the internal polling of the GOP and what Rove is basing his worst case scenario 8 or so seats lost. That is worst case scenario. You are way off base and seem to have an agenda to keep republican voter turn out low. Sorry that is not going to happen and you will be so disappointed when the rats do not get a majority."
Don't assume that people with more pessimistic view of races are some kind of Dem trolls ... frankly, the possibility of a Pelosi House will *ENERGIZE* a base disappointed with some GOP actions, but which knows how much the Republicans are compared to Democrats.
That said, I remember that Rove thought florida was in the bag in 2000, there was a last minute Democr*p stink bomb that dropped Bush by 1-2pts and the rest, as you say, is history.
If Rove's 'worst case' is 8, he is smoking crack. There are many too close to call races, Bush and GOP approval is down, and the MSM is gunning for Democr*p victory. Polls, whether ours, theirs, or MSM biased polls are a snapshot from today, not election day.
I think we are winning in Iraq, but 2/3rds of Americans dont agree with me. I think the economy is doing great, but the MSM keeps bashing the economy like we are in a depression. If the Dem-MSM complex has another october surprise it could be a disaster for us. (that said, they fired their best shot last month with foleygate, I think the tide of Democrat cr*p will go out, and I will be quite happy if the net result is a Dem gain of only 8 House seats. That would be a joy to behold, the frustrated Dems missing it once again).
Last post on the subject, since it really is a Nov. 7 issue, but this article explains the actual voting processes much better than I'm doing:
http://www.herald-coaster.com/articles/2006/10/19/news/top_story/topstory.txt
"NPR and dems. in general have forgotten who the voters are in this district. Overwhelmingly conservative people. Who can spell. And WILL show up to vote. Broken glass Republicans who think Delay was railroaded."
Us Travis Republicans *KNOW* DeLay was railroaded! Ronnie Earle had to 'fix' the indictment, because the original one violated ex post facto, and then got a whole extra new grand jury just to get the fixed indictment passed... unusual shenanigans and energy on a very suspect charge.
"I think she stands a great chance of winning it. I hope Lampson gets his a** handed to him."
Dittos. GIBBS CAN WIN. Amazing.
I am feeling better than ever that we can hang on to the House.
"I live in the TX-22 district, and I will try to enter the name of Shelley Sekula Gibbs until my fingers bleed rather than be represented in Congress by liberal Democrat Nick Lampson. :-)"
first, broken-glass Republicans ... now, bloody-finger Republicans!
Did you hear about this one over the weekend? Lampson wanted to file charges against Gibbs for violating campaign laws. Her offense? She entered a voting station to go to the bathroom. *gasp* lol! Oh, the dirty tricks Republicans are involved in! These pathetic democrats, Lampson in particular need their a**es handed to them next Tuesday.
"We will win FL-16. With the court ruling that will clearly spell out that you need to vote for Foley to vote for Negron, Negron should win. I think the democrats trying to fight that common-sense rule will hurt them with the republicans that make up a majority of that district."
The Democrats two-faced attitude of substituting in candidates last-minute (races like Wellstone, Carnahan, Torricelli, even in Hawaii where they pulled some stunts related to Patsy Mink) but opposing GOP ballot access and changes is angering GOP base voters - it WILL backfire.
The Democrat are putting power over principle, especially when they wrong opposed the polling notice for Negron.
Polling now has Negron ahead slightly ... with GOTV and education, he will definitely win.
But how hard is it to spell "GIBBS".
It won't be too hard for anybody that can read, her name as well as all qualified write in candidates, will be posted in every polling booth. President Bush's visit will pull this one out. We could use a couple of more surprises.
"Did you hear about this one over the weekend? Lampson wanted to file charges against Gibbs for violating campaign laws. Her offense? She entered a voting station to go to the bathroom. *gasp* lol! Oh, the dirty tricks Republicans are involved in! These pathetic democrats, Lampson in particular need their a**es handed to them next Tuesday."
Man, that *is* desperation ...
But what do you expect? Here is a man who knows he is wrong for the district, but is ahead soley because of the squirrelly nature of election law that prevented GOP name on the ballot ... If the GOP name was there it would look like this:
Gibbs 52%
Lampson 35%
Smithers 5%
(that's poll result from the article, if the names were on the ballot).
So Lampson wins this patheticly slanted race, what will his victory speech be?
I'm seeing NO signs of Dem voter intensity; in overwhelming Dem areas, NO signs or bumperstickers. There is no evidence whatsoever of a Dem "surge." I expect them to undervote their average on an off-year election by 1-2%, and us to hit our off-year targets.
As hard as the dems tried to steal this one...will not happen...LOL...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.