Posted on 10/29/2006 9:24:34 PM PST by rhinohunter
On Monday President Bush flies into Houston to campaign for a congressional candidate who — at one point — looked like a long shot.
But an exclusive poll indicates that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs may pull off a political upset and win her write-in campaign for Congress.
(Excerpt) Read more at khou.com ...
I may be blinded by optimism, but I have the strange feeling, which gets stronger each day, that SSG may actually win this race. Here are the reasons:
1. The surveys can’t account for the unusual circumstances. We all know how the committed Democrat and Republican will vote—the Democrats select “D” and the committed Republicans have been waiting to write in “Shelly Sekula Gibbs” for months. However, no one really knows how the uninvolved, but generally conservative, voter will react. This is a district that in 2004 went Bush about 63%.
2. The write-in process is different from what we have seen before because there is no Republican candidate and the computer will tell the voter that he has not voted in the CD-22 election. [See Post 168 above for an excellent explanation.] I wonder how many people will take the time to go to a voting booth, sign up to vote, and be so careless to not know that they have not voted for one of the two key races in the area [the other race being for Governor]?
3. Dr. Shelly’s name, along with the other write-in candidates, is written on a page inside each booth.
4. Working the wheel is kind of fun and much easier than I would have thought. I had much more trouble finding parking than voting.
5. The RNC is spending a ton of money on television spots introducing Dr. Shelly, and those adds end with a 10 second review of how to work the voting wheel. Frankly, the voting instructions seem to make the advertisement more interesting. I think most of the 63% that voted for Bush know the difference between a Republican and a Democrat.
6. My final key factor. Lampson has as much tv spots as Dr. Shelly, and this makes me think of two things: one, if the race was a lock, why would he spend the money; two, each time he mentions Dr. Shelly, he is helping Republicans overcome the lack of name recognition.
Again, maybe I am being very optimistic, but I get the feeling that this race is at least tied, and certainly not a lock for Democrats.
Yes. Just like in 2000, we need to correlate time to call vs. party affiliation, vs. margin of victory.
Just like in 2000, we'll see the MSM calling Democrat victories by less than 2% margin within minutes of polls closing, while waiting 30 minutes or more for Republican victories of 10% or more.
-PJ
"I'm not being negative. I'm attempting to accurately predict what will happen on election night.
I actually have a VERY positive long term outlook. I think with the Dems running the house American will be reminded of just who they are and in what they believe. This will help Repubs to win back the house, grow the lead in the Senate and maintain the presidency in 2008.
I am not a gloom and doomer; however when I sit back and examine the facts, I see the Dems picking up 16-18 seats in the House. (Senate will be 51-47-2, Repubs in control)."
Thank you! This has been exactly my line of thinking, but I've been loathe to post my thoughts here because of some of the inevitable reactions it would receive (and I know how quick people are to point at signup dates and scream "TROLL!").
I will air my views on this just once: I'm actually worried that the Republicans will hang on to power this midterm. Why? For the reasons you stated, pretty much.
Let's assume the Republicans manage to hold on to their majority, yet they do very little to change how they've been governing over the next two years. You think the GOP backlash is bad now? I can easily imagine the Democrats in 2008 grabbing the White House, and healthy majorities in both Houses.
I don't believe the Democrats with a slim majority in one—or even both—Houses will be able to destroy the country in two years time. As a nation we're stronger than that, and we can weather the storm. As you say, let the American public be reminded of why they voted the Democrats out of power...and remind the Republicans of why they were voted IN.
We may certainly lose the House, but the Dems are so confident about a sweep of Congress and the Senate that any amount to which they fall short is a victory for us. If we can manage to maintain control of one or both houses of Congress, it will be devastating to them: if they can't win this year, when *can* they win?
The looney left will insist that the reason they lost was because the candidates weren't looney-left enough, and that is always good for us.
Whatever you may have thought about Buchanan and Sobran, they had fire in their bellies when it came to the conservative cause, and when the newly arrived limp-wristed snakes at NR ran them off, it sent a strong message: play it safe, keep it bland, or you might get fired.
John O'Sullivan tried to steer a middle course, but didn't last long. He's done much of his best writing since leaving NR.
When I think back to what that magazine used to be... It was truly inspiring back in the day. Made you want to get on your horse and ride out to rid the world of everything liberal.
It is good that Texas election law counts a vote so long as the intent of the voter is clear. You are presumably a hyper-committed voter who has evidently waited for months to vote for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs and yet you nonetheless misspell her first name. That's emblematic of the problem and why this seat is #1 most likely to switch.
I am not snarking just to snark. I am wanting to make a point. Anyhow, my concern in this debate is that I get my election ratings correct. If Sekula-Gibbs proves me wrong then wonderful for her and fantastic for the GOP. I'm gonna check out of any further TX-22 discussions because ultimately I don't think anyone will know until Nov 7.
No. If you do not write in her name, she does not get the vote.
" Thirty-six percent said they’d vote for Lampson and 4 percent for Libertarian Bob Smither, who’s also on the ballot.
But 35 percent said they’d vote for a write-in candidate.
“That tells me that they’ve been reading the papers,” Granato said. “They’re up on that. And of course, the next step is, ‘Who’s the write-in candidate you want that’s closest to your preference?’”
The answer: 79 percent of surveyed voters who said they’d write in a candidate said they’d write in Sekula-Gibbs.
“So this barrier of writing her name in is minimized by the fact that they are aware,” Granato said. “So if they even get confused working this machine, they probably can go to a poll worker and try and get it right. And they know who to pick.”
The poll also indicates that Sekula-Gibbs has higher name recognition than Lampson and that in a normal head-to-head competition with her name on the ballot, she would win by double-digits. "
HOLY CANNOLI!!!!
This is BIG news ... it is the #1 pickup for Dems in the nation... It's still a long-shot but "GIBBS" is not hard to write in.
BTW, the funniest part of it is the pathetic showing of Lampson. He's had a free run on this seat - it's his to lose. And he still is at only 36% LOL.
COOL ... I know we will actually win several of these:
5. FL-13 Negron wins!
6. FL-16 GOP wins!
...
8. IN-02
9. IN-08
10. IN-09 Sodrel pulls it out; Chocola 50/50
11. MN-06 Bachmann will win...
My FULL COMMENTARY - we lose 10-18 seats ...
The 22 most vulnerable GOP seats:
1. TX-22: (Open - R) (write-in GIBBS wont win - DEM)
2. AZ-8: (Open - R) (I wanna believe, but ...)
3. FL-16: (Open - R) (Foley/Negron - we pull it out, thanks to the polling place info)
4. PA-10: (Sherwood - R) (we are toast - DEM)
5. IN-8: (Hostettler - R) (conservative district, but ...)
6. CO-7: (Open - R) (ODonnell is underdog; Latest poll is tie, but most polls have DEM ahead)
7. PA-7: (Weldon - R)
8. OH-18: (Open - R) (GOP district, but Ney/Taft factor)
9. NY-24: (Open - R)
10. NC-11: (Taylor - R)
11. IA-1: (Open - R) (DEM win in liberal district)
12. IN-2: (Chocola - R) (he's down, but I believe he can pull it out)
13. NM-1: (Wilson - R) (I saw the debate - devastating for Madrid, she's a bumbler, Wilson wins)
14. NY-26: (Reynolds - R) (Reynolds up in latest polls)
15. CT-4: (Shays - R) (I think he hangs on thanks to Lieberman factor, Lieberman smokes Lamont and saves CT RINOs)
16. OH-15: (Pryce - R) (I wanna believe she hangs on, but marginal)
17. IN-9: (Sodrel - R) (a true tossup)
18. PA-6: (Gerlach - R) ( Gerlach is 3pt underdog)
19. FL-13: (Open - R) (move to lean GOP)
20. IL-6: (Open - R) (GOP wins; Roskam ahead, better campaign)
21. MN-6: (Open - R) (Bachmann is ahead, Wetterling cut-n-ran from debate!)
22. CT-2: (Simmons - R) (See #15, hangs on)
"Keep in mind that it's not necessary for all three names to be entered and spelled correctly for the write-in vote to count in TX 22. I know that a select set of partial entries is authorized to be acceptable, but I don't know exactly what they are. Other variations will be reviewed by a panel of county reps and if the intent of the voter is clear the vote will be counted."
I've been saying "GIBBS" is enough. I hope I am correct in that.
"So even the the Chonicle's biased polls shows that a dim bulb like Lampson could actually lose to a write in candidate. If this happens, wouldn't that just about destroy what's left of Lampson's political career?"
Texas Democrats are like zombies, you cant really ever kill them. (Look at Bell!)
No kidding! There's yard signs everywhere, and I still forget her name, but we do know that VOTER INTENTION COUNTS. A mistpelled Sekilla Gib cannot be mistaken for Mr. Lampoon. :)
Hey sourpuss ... polls a few months back had Lampson in low 40s ... now he is at 36%. LOL the Democrat is going backwards!
This is still a long-shot but the fact that Gibbs is even polling close to Lampson here, *despite* the name ID and despire so many other issues, is amazing.
ONE MORE THING: GIBBS IS ON THE BALLOT! There is a special election where Gibbs is on the ballot. So for the eSlate voters, all they have to do is vote in the special first, remember the spelling and repeat it for the main race.
"1) the straight-party problem;"
Not a problem with e-Slate
" (2) the cumbersome-ballot problem;"
See above.
" (3) the special-election problem;"
It actually *helps* to give in-poll reminder of who is running - see above.
"(4) the one-fifth of write-ins going to someone other than Sekula-Gibbs."
Valid concern but may be only voter education issue.
Also, I consider 2/3rds recognition that they can write in a GOOD THING. That's higher than normal. And you can be sure the GOP is tragetting the GOP households so it means GOP voters are informed at a higher level then that.
This race moves from "Impossible" to "We have a chance".
Yes, but her name is listed on the ballot to serve Delay's remaining term. All one needs to do is look at the ballot for the name and the spelling.
Houston PING
The Comical will be deeply saddened if she wins.
DeLay has been a thorn in their side for a long time. Democrat victory here would be like dancing on his grave.
The only hope Democrats have is to keep the opponents off the ballots.
Depends on the office. In Houston, mayor is a "non-partisan" office so you can have 3 democrats in the race. The top two will have a runoff if there is no one with 50% of the vote.
"However, that does not mean those people (especially Republican voters) will punch Lampson's name by default. Instead, the entire race will more likely be SKIPPED."
RIGHT!! ... That is what I find so encouraging. Even more than the high numbers for 'write in' is Lampson's pathetic numbers.
It tells me that the good people of TX-22 are not buying it.
I had feared that Smithers would suck a lot of air out of Gibbs and vice versa, but it looks not to be the case.
"Given the GOP's inherent registration advantage in TX22, only **enough** people need to be educated about Gibbs and writing-in her game. If I had the inclination, I could work this out as a math equation, using this poll data and district registration."
This is a 60/40 type district. you need to get 3/4ths of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters to vote for GIBBS.
That would be 45% of the total electorate.
Poll was 36% Lampson, 35% writein (31% for GIBBS, 4% other). 5% Smithers.
that still leaves 20% undecided, most of whom are GOP voters confused or refusing to support ... win over 1/4 of those and GIBBS will win.
With this kind of polling, it is quite possible to see a result such as :
45% GIBBS, 40% Lampson, 10% Smithers, 5% other
Not that it WILL Happen, but it is possible.
I hope you're right. I know this is just silly, but at this point, that is the main reason I want Republicans to win, so the Rats will be so depressed. I want to see Carville with a garbage pail on his head at LEAST one more time before I die.
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