I may be blinded by optimism, but I have the strange feeling, which gets stronger each day, that SSG may actually win this race. Here are the reasons:
1. The surveys can’t account for the unusual circumstances. We all know how the committed Democrat and Republican will vote—the Democrats select “D” and the committed Republicans have been waiting to write in “Shelly Sekula Gibbs” for months. However, no one really knows how the uninvolved, but generally conservative, voter will react. This is a district that in 2004 went Bush about 63%.
2. The write-in process is different from what we have seen before because there is no Republican candidate and the computer will tell the voter that he has not voted in the CD-22 election. [See Post 168 above for an excellent explanation.] I wonder how many people will take the time to go to a voting booth, sign up to vote, and be so careless to not know that they have not voted for one of the two key races in the area [the other race being for Governor]?
3. Dr. Shelly’s name, along with the other write-in candidates, is written on a page inside each booth.
4. Working the wheel is kind of fun and much easier than I would have thought. I had much more trouble finding parking than voting.
5. The RNC is spending a ton of money on television spots introducing Dr. Shelly, and those adds end with a 10 second review of how to work the voting wheel. Frankly, the voting instructions seem to make the advertisement more interesting. I think most of the 63% that voted for Bush know the difference between a Republican and a Democrat.
6. My final key factor. Lampson has as much tv spots as Dr. Shelly, and this makes me think of two things: one, if the race was a lock, why would he spend the money; two, each time he mentions Dr. Shelly, he is helping Republicans overcome the lack of name recognition.
Again, maybe I am being very optimistic, but I get the feeling that this race is at least tied, and certainly not a lock for Democrats.
It is good that Texas election law counts a vote so long as the intent of the voter is clear. You are presumably a hyper-committed voter who has evidently waited for months to vote for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs and yet you nonetheless misspell her first name. That's emblematic of the problem and why this seat is #1 most likely to switch.
I am not snarking just to snark. I am wanting to make a point. Anyhow, my concern in this debate is that I get my election ratings correct. If Sekula-Gibbs proves me wrong then wonderful for her and fantastic for the GOP. I'm gonna check out of any further TX-22 discussions because ultimately I don't think anyone will know until Nov 7.
Shelly will hold this seat.