Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"

Political Wire ^ | October 25, 2006 | Taegan Goddard

[Torie]

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the probability of partisan control. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty."

[MEGoody]

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

Yeah, and we all know how accurate polls are. :::sarc:::

[finnman69]

generic vote polls

USELESS

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

RCP Final Pre-Election Avg 10/27 - 11/1 45.4% 45.4% TIE
GW/Battleground 10/31-11/1 47% 44% R + 3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/29 - 10/31 46% 47% D + 1%
NBC/WSJ 10/29 - 10/31 43% 44% D + 1%
Rasmussen 10/29 - 10/31 42% 48% D +6%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29 - 10/31 46% 48% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 49% 44% R + 5%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/26 - 10/28 45% 48% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/25 - 10/28 44% 45% D + 1%
Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/27 43% 44% D + 1%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/24 - 10/25 42% 51% D + 9%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/22 - 10/24 50% 47% R + 3%
Newsweek 10/21 - 10/22 47% 46% R + 1%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/20 - 10/21 44% 49% D + 5%
GW-Battleground 10/18 - 10/21 43% 46% D + 3%
AP-Ipsos 10/18 - 10/20 46% 47% D + 1%
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 39% 45% D + 6%
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/16 42% 44% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/14 - 10/15 43% 46% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/11 - 10/14 40% 44% D + 4%
Rasmussen 10/7 - 10/9 42% 44% D + 2%
GW-Battleground 10/4 - 10/7 42% 43% D + 1%
AP/Ipsos 10/4 - 10/6 44% 48% D + 4%
Rasmussen 10/3 - 10/5 41% 46% D + 5%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/3 - 10/5 45% 49% D + 4%

[Busywhiskers]

The only poll that matters is actual vote.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

The propaganda is deep and persistent.

MSM to Republicans: "Don't bother to vote, you've lost already (Heh. Heh)."

[GVnana]

LOL! bump.

[jwalsh07]

Bookmarked.

[finnman69]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/03/last_weeks_myths_about_2006.html


"If you look at the Gallup generic measure since 1994, you will see that the average poll skews toward the Democrats by an average of 6%. In 2002, the average skew was a whopping 8%. The final Gallup poll before the election has fared even worse. It has skewed toward the Democrats by 7% on average and by 10% in 2002."

[DesScorp]

"Ping to revisit thread after election."

You ain't kiddin'. I am gonna have so much fun on November 8th...

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

If you read the report, the last paragraph says in essence that if things change, this forecast is wrong.<.I>

ROFLMAO!

[MNJohnnie]

Only problem is the polling data they are feeding the black box is junk. Garbage in, Garbage out.

[VRWCTexan]

Great - now I don't even have to bother to go vote.... (sac/off)

[johnny7]

Novak is saying Dem's gain 26 House seats. Hey Bob... f _ _ k you!

[newcthem]

I guess it is about time for a few of us dumb ol' Republicans to show this learned man, just how wrong he is....................

[prov1813man]

"Near", as in "close" but no cigar.

Hehe. Gotta love their little pointy heads.

[Welike ike]

http://www.drudgereport.com

Wonder if the Insanity of the NJ supreme Court today will wake up the stay at Home Conservatives

[TLI]

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives.

behind the scenes...

[Al Simmons]

"Political Scientist" = Oxymoron

[Al Simmons]

"That's not fair. I'm a poli sci major. I have a 3.75 GPA and I LOVE to argue with my lib professors."

That's nice. I did that too - even made Phi Beta Kappa while defending RWR against the "usual suspects".

One question....any plans yet for a societally-productive post-college career?

Start thinking about it (hopefully earlier than I did in my own life) because that PoliSci degree ain't worth a bucket of warm spit in the real world.

And NO, I do NOT recommend hitting the 'default' button and going to law school unless you have exhausted all other possibilities.

Why? Well, consider that 70% of all lawyers wish they were doing something else within 5 years of graduating. But that's not so easy after such an investment of time and $$$.

My standard advice is this:

Try out anything and everything you think you may like doing/be good at, BEFORE committing to law school. You may wind up saving yourself a whole lot of grief.

Take it from one who's 'been there, done that', kid (pronounced 'keeeeeeeeed', as Babe Ruth used to say)....

[Texas Chilli]

Are these the same University "experts" who claimed that President George Washington and all the other presidents got blow jobs from interns while in the White House during the "everybody does it" campaign? Just wondering...LOL

[tom h]

"Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a Near Certainty'"

OK. Will they quit, or submit themselves to public ridicule if they are wrong?