Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"
Political Wire ^ | October 25, 2006 | Taegan Goddard

Posted on 10/25/2006 11:59:44 AM PDT by Torie

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the probability of partisan control. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty."


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; housecontrol; midtermelections; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 141-155 next last
To: Torie
Pointy-headedness at its stupid best. Generic polls are worthless as predictors of individual races. Not partially useful, not somewhat informative - worthless.

Generic samples, even if sufficiently large (and culled to exclude unregistered and unlikely voters) ignore regional variation, demographic concentration, voter intensity, and a whole lot of other things that determine the outcome of individual races. Like turnout, for example. Or weather. Or ground-game efficiency (how many personal contacts do I need to make to increase turnout by "x" percent in one key district?)

This is just more FUD from the Democrat-Media Complex.

41 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:39 PM PDT by andy58-in-nh
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WalterSkinner

Beat me to it.


42 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:41 PM PDT by fireforeffect (A kind word and a 2x4, gets you more than just a kind word.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Torie

NJ Supremes just handed the election to the Republicans, who will hold the House by a nose.


43 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:46 PM PDT by ikka
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: paratrooper82

Just a couple of pointy head dopes trying to influence the election. I'm sure the RATS have promised them all kinds of funding for further research on why water runs downhill.


44 posted on 10/25/2006 12:21:45 PM PDT by DAC21
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Edgerunner
Ironically, as I was reading this, a pollster called me. "I am just calling to see if you will vote for Jim Webb..."

LOL

"No, not for all your money. Why did you think I would?"

45 posted on 10/25/2006 12:23:29 PM PDT by patton (Sanctimony frequently reaps its own reward.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Torie

I believe now, more than ever, that Republicans will retain control of both the House and the Senate. Maybe only by a slim majority but I think we'll still have the majority.


46 posted on 10/25/2006 12:23:37 PM PDT by ilovew (I love being a DoD intern...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NewHampshireDuo

That's not fair. I'm a poli sci major. I have a 3.75 GPA and I LOVE to argue with my lib professors.


47 posted on 10/25/2006 12:24:48 PM PDT by ilovew (I love being a DoD intern...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Torie

Never trust a political "scientist" to know beans about statistics.


48 posted on 10/25/2006 12:25:49 PM PDT by LibWhacker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Torie
Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"

---

Let's break this statement down:

"Political Scientists" are College Professors, since no sane corporation would ever pay anyone to sit around and BS.

"Near Certainty" for an future event is a "Wish"

So, a rough translation is: "College professors wish for Democratic party control of the House of Representatives."

...hardly a surprise there...and well worth ignoring.

49 posted on 10/25/2006 12:26:23 PM PDT by captain_dave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LibWhacker

Thank You New Jersey!!!!!!!!! Great way to wake up the GOP base.


50 posted on 10/25/2006 12:28:13 PM PDT by Welike ike
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: DAC21
They want more abortions so they can continue to practice on dead babies. Since the liberals are the only ones who really support abortions, the tin foil hats come out in support of the liberals.

Wishful thinking on their part. This is clearly desperation on their part. Just two days ago, they were picking out the new drapes for the speaker of the house!

What happened? Reality just set in! They are scared. This is what they do every time they want something. 95 The earth was cooling and we where in for a new ice age! Now the earth is warming and the polar ice caps are going to melt causing the earth to die. All of this from the so called educated scientist!
51 posted on 10/25/2006 12:33:05 PM PDT by paratrooper82 (82 Airborne 1/508th BN "fury from the sky")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Torie

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=657

They checked their equations against 2004 info instead of another off-year election.
It's so obvious they should have used 2000 info that it makes one wonder if they secretly did and it failed LOL!

Maybe this paper is a joke...


52 posted on 10/25/2006 12:35:19 PM PDT by mrsmith
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mrsmith

"should have used 2002 info "


53 posted on 10/25/2006 12:36:40 PM PDT by mrsmith
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]

To: Torie
Charles de Gaulle said there were three ways to go to hell:

  1. Gambling
  2. Women
  3. Believing Experts

Gambling was the quickest, women was the most pleasurable and believing experts was the most certain.

Do not lose hope or heart.

Regards, Ivan

54 posted on 10/25/2006 12:36:42 PM PDT by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NewHampshireDuo

"Where I went to school the polysci majors were the ones who couldn't make it in any other major (except education)."

PoliSci majors certainly have trouble with basic math, and are prone to bouts of dark ennui, aren't they, lol?


55 posted on 10/25/2006 12:38:01 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: thackney

that is pretty persuasive


56 posted on 10/25/2006 12:40:11 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://xanga.com/rwfromkansas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Torie

Actually, this has value because it's near the election. If these guys then match the actual results to their model's prediction, they can then try to figure out why there were deviances and then improve their model.


57 posted on 10/25/2006 12:44:13 PM PDT by RonF
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Torie
The first thing you learn in statistics is that correlation is not causation.

In other words, past correlation does not predict future results.

58 posted on 10/25/2006 12:44:25 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Muslims reserve the right to kill anyone who says otherwise.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NewHampshireDuo
Where I went to school the polysci majors were the ones who couldn't make it in any other major (except education).

Exceptions you forgot: Communications, and Sports Management! (:^D)

59 posted on 10/25/2006 12:48:11 PM PDT by WideGlide (That light at the end of the tunnel might be a muzzle flash.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Torie

Stupid, stupid, stupid. When will these analysts ever learn to stop believing the polls?


60 posted on 10/25/2006 12:54:59 PM PDT by Princip. Conservative (I have voted - have you?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 141-155 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson