Waiting game: A plunge is inevitable (Barf Alert)

MSN Money ^ | 10-23-2006 | Bill Fleckenstein

[MooseMan]

Let's begin with a multitrillion-dollar question: Will this rally of the past 2 1/2 months be defined, in retrospect, as the ending blowoff to the rally of the past few years (fueled by what the housing bubble did for the economy)? Or, will it -- for reasons unknown to me -- signal the start of some new leg higher? That silence you hear is the "answer" to this question.

Last week, I anticipated a huge reversal -- admittedly, a low-probability event -- as both Wednesday and Thursday saw disappointing tech news trumped by soft-landing/Dow 12,000 euphoria. Furthermore, critical revelations surfaced on Thursday regarding loan losses at several institutions involved in the "housing ATM" finance business. In my daily column, I described the situation as follows:

"The stage is set for some real fireworks, especially since this has been such a straight-up, bulletproof rampage for the last 2 1/2 months. In fact, given how we've powered through the large pre-announcement season into an earnings season that I expect to be pregnant with disappointment ... (we're) more ripe for reversal than at any point in time since the fall of 2000." 11,999 points on the Wall

[MooseMan]

Dem strategy: Keep saying it and eventually it will be true.

[frogjerk]

soft-landing/Dow 12,000 euphoria

DIM Keywords.

Soft landing from where?

[CharlesWayneCT]

That silence you hear is the "answer" to this question.

Actually, that "silence" you "hear" is the result of your words being WRITTEN IN A PAPER, and your question being asked with only yourself in the room to write an answer.

In the real world, what most of us heard was our own guffaws of laughter when we read you speaking to your own IGNORANCE.

I imagine the answer to the question isn't the only thing "unbeknownst" to this author.

[Dog Gone]

My 401k gained over $8,000 yesterday in one day. I'm not seeing the doom.

[misterrob]

The market is up 20% since its low of this year a few months back. That's a huge run in a short amount of time. While this is no bubble I suspect that some external problems could send it down 500-600 points in two weeks. Lower gas prices have certainly helped though!

[Eric in the Ozarks]

36,000 Dow ?

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The end will come if/when the Democrats take the House or Senate or Presidency.

[nascarnation]

It's good to be a Rich Republican
I'm loving every step of the journey
and IIRC the stock market didn't do too bad the last time we had "gridlock"
:-)

[GSlob]

Markov processes do not have party affiliation, Dem or not Dem.

[rlmorel]

As I recall,they said the same thing at the following Milestones in the DOW:

500
600
700
800
900
1000 (most vigourously)
.
.
5,000 (Really)
6,000 (Really, Really)
.
.
.
10,000 (OMG...REALLY! IT WILL CRASH! IT WILL NEVER...)
.
.
.
12,000 (OKAY, I REALLY MEAN THIS IS UNREALISTIC! WHERE IS THAT DAMNED FED?)
.
.
.
12,001
12,002
.
.
.
INSERT YOUR NUMBER HERE AND ACCOMPANYING HYSTERICAL RANT. TAKE COMFORT THAT AT SOME POINT IN TIME, YOU MAY BE RIGHT. YOU JUST HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE AND HOPE NOBODY REMEMBERS YOU SAYING IT ALL THOSE OTHER TIMES.

[TommyDale]

Traditionally, October is a down month. This year it isn't.
Perhaps the economy is even stronger than anyone thought possible.

[fatnotlazy]

My 401k gained over $8,000 yesterday in one day. I'm not seeing the doom.

****

Same here. Only time my retirement nest egg faltered was during the eight years of President Stainedbluedress' administration.

[mc6809e]

This is a typical suckers' rally setup by the big boys.

The more retail investors jump in, the closer we get to the pop when the large funds cash out.

[AntiGuv]

This isn't part of a "Dem strategy" - Bill Fleckenstein has been a perma-bear since forever..

[FlyVet]

Bob Brinker, who has been very accurate calling market trends (although not always so with his stock picks), uses investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator. When all these pundits are saying "doom and gloom" it's time to buy. When they say "buy buy buy!", watch out. Sentiment is only 1/4th of his timing model, though.

[LibLieSlayer]

Cavuto and company say 14,000 next year.

LLS

[Former MSM Viewer]

an earnings season that I expect to be pregnant with disappointment ...

Last count 70% of companies reporting were exceeding estimates....

[Former MSM Viewer]

Dont forget Alan GreenSpam saying the market had a sense of "irrational exhuberance" when it was below 4000...

The Spammer was wrong for most of his career...

[Eric in the Ozarks]

GO, Wells Fargo !

[6ppc]

In 1999-2000 we had irrational exuberance and I had a feeling of unbelief about what the market was doing...I was right, but unfortunately didn't listen to myself and took a big hit.

This time it doesn't have that feel to me. It feels pretty solid. I believe the only thing that has been holding the market down for the last two years is energy prices, and those are going down rapidly now. There is some worry about the credit bubble, and if energy prices were not dropping I would be very worried, but I believe the drop in energy prices is offsetting the credit bubble deflation, at least for the moment.

The economy is growing, unemployment is low and it just doesn't feel like the wild days of 1999-2000. I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction, but I don't see a meltdown coming.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial analyst and I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.