Nelson Continues To Lead Harris. (by 26 points in Florida Senate race. It's over)

Tampa Bay on line ^

[MindBender26]

A new Mason-Dixon poll out tonight shows Democrat Bill Nelson leading Republican Katherine Harris by 26 points in the U.S. Senate race.

Nelson polls at 57 percent; Harris at 31 percent. Nelson has been ahead by at least 15 points since Mason-Dixon first began polling nearly two years ago.

While campaigning in North Florida this week, Nelson told supporters that the race would even and that garnering 55 percent of the vote would be a landslide.

Harris spokeswoman Jennifer Marks released a statement, saying "Congresswoman Harris has a long history of rebounding from negative polling predictions because her message of cutting taxes and securing our nation's borders resonates across the political spectrum."

[LenS]

Well, since Florida has some 25 Congressional districts, her victory as a Congresswoman does nothing to show that she has state-wide appeal. Her district isn't exactly a challenging one for a GOP candidate to win.

Plus, winning a GOP primary doesn't mean that you can win in a general election -- just ask Lamont how his primary victory is carrying over to the general election. Candidates who don't stand a chance constantly win party primaries.

Finally, Secretary of State is one of those down-ticket positions that most voters pay don't really pay any attention to. Besides, she's running against an incumbent who has won state-wide in highly visible job. So only one of your three examples actually has any impact upon her being electable state-wide.

[LenS]

Well, since Florida has some 25 Congressional districts, her victory as a Congresswoman does nothing to show that she has state-wide appeal. Her district isn't exactly a challenging one for a GOP candidate to win.

Plus, winning a GOP primary doesn't mean that you can win in a general election -- just ask Lamont how his primary victory is carrying over to the general election. Candidates who don't stand a chance constantly win party primaries.

Finally, Secretary of State is one of those down-ticket positions that most voters pay don't really pay any attention to. Besides, she's running against an incumbent who has won state-wide in highly visible job. So only one of your three examples actually has any impact upon her being electable state-wide.

[Rumple4]

I think this year they are just a lib tool. This is their last gasp, if they lose in 2006 they're done and they know it.

[spinestein]

I find it less than amusing that there are so many people around who haven't yet realized that many polls are routinely created by advocacy groups and even news organizations themselves to alter public opinion and to help the side they've chosen to support.

Still, there are polls which are designed to be as fair and as objective as practical, but even those polls have become increasingly inaccurate and unreliable as the response rate has plummeted below 40% in recent years, making the sample so unrepresentative as to be almost worthless. A poll with a reported margin of error of +/- 3% could easily be off by 10 points, and it's common for two very similar polls to be taken of the same population at the same time and give results differing by that amount. Believe the results of polls at your own risk, whether they're for you or against you.

[onyx]

I find it less than amusing that there are so many people around who haven't yet realized that many polls are routinely created by advocacy groups and even news organizations themselves to alter public opinion and to help the side they've chosen to support.

BUMP!

[duckln]

Lamont is a horrible example. Before the primaries he IMO never ran for election. He's a business man sponsored by the Deaniacs and the radical left. An out and out fluke.

Candidates who don't stand a chance constantly win party primaries.

Candidates that do stand a chance constantly win in the primaries and general elections. As Kathy has and will again.

[LibLieSlayer]

I don't live in Florida, but I did send her $250.00. She is a great lady!

LLS

[MindBender26]

It's the Mason-Dixon poll. Pretty straight up.

[MaineVoter2002]

This will be a single digit race. This poll is ridiculous, what half the Repubs going to vote for Nelson?

Exactly! Im surprised that so many are falling for the manipulated polls. I mean, we should always fight as if we are losing. It's safer that way. But we should never go as far as quit.

If your state is not vulnerable, adopt a candidate that is vulnerable in another state.

[onyx]

I'm talking polls in general and the internals are always interesting.

Yes, she's behind, but can only win or be defeated on election day --- not in the polls.

[MaineVoter2002]

http://flashbunny.org/content/partyoftherich.html

[PeskyOne]

If I lived in Florida, you can bet I would vote for Harris. I am disenchanted with the RNC for giving money to Chaffee, who is not worth a dime of a Conservatives' money, and they refuse to help Harris. She stepped up to the plate and stood up for Republicans in 2000! When a RNC solicitor called this week wanting more money, I told him I wanted to see Republicans show some backbone and respond to the dastardly charges by Democrats, and I did not like any of my money going to people like Lincoln Chaffee or John McCain! I may break down and send more because I think we really need to keep both houses.

[dayglored]

What? 51 posts and not a single picture of the lovely lady?

[dayglored]

> But she looks positively smashing in mount! Where's the pic? That will get the votes...

See post #53.

[MaineVoter2002]

http://electharris.org/

[onyx]

I sent the RNC a much smaller donation. This time around, I prefer to send money to individual candidates, like Diana Irey in PA. I so want her to beat that damn Murtha.

It is imperative that we hold the House, and I hope we can hold the Senate majority without Chafee.

[bray]

Actually this one is impossible to poll. She is a very Politically Incorrect candidate and most are not going to give an honest answer even if this wasn't oversampled for Dims.

Last election the homo Marriage Amendment polled toss-up even up til the election. Turned out 60-40 for. Never trust the polls, they have no correlation to the actual.

Pray for W and Our Troops

[Petronski]

Check your gear, your sarcasmeter might be jammed.

[MikeA]

The GOP should have gone for a viable candidate who'd not put her foot in her mouth all the time and that wouldn't be a huge draw for Democrats to come out and vote against her. This was a mistake from the get-go, many of us saw that but were flamed for saying so. Money or no money Harris' campaign is too inept to have ever accomplished much which is a shame since the empty suit Nelson was emminently beatable.

[snowsislander]

Interesting. If one were to believe this poll (and I put zero faith in polls) and the Crist polls, then Florida will see a lot of ticket splitting, with a great many people voting for both Republican Charlie Crist for Governor and for Democrat Bill Nelson for Senator? That doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I was re-reading the threads from the 2004 election, and some of the pollsters were so wildly off that's hard to believe that they didn't somehow mix up telephone area codes between, say, Virginia and New York, because they were literally that far wrong.

I personally think that you would be better off hiring a haruspex rather than a "pollster".