The West is Running Out of Time in Afghanistan

The Jamestown Foundation ^ | October 17, 2006 | Michael Scheuer

[neverdem]

NVM: Modules
Volume 3, Issue 40 (October 17, 2006) | Download PDF Version The West is Running Out of Time in Afghanistan By Michael Scheuer From all observables, the Taliban insurgency is spreading from its deeply rooted base in southern and southeastern Afghanistan to provinces in the west and east. In addition, several Islamist insurgent organizations active during the 1979-89 jihad against the Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan—the "old mujahideen"—have allied themselves with the Taliban. Among the more important and militarily powerful of these long-established groups are Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami and the forces of Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani, which belong to the Hezb-e-Islami-Khalis organization. Historically, both groups have been able to deploy substantial forces in the strategically vital corridors from the Khyber Pass through Jalalabad to Kabul, and along the only major highway running from Kabul to the southern provinces. Prior to the 2001 U.S.-led invasion, the first of these organizations was hostile to the Taliban, while the second was at best neutral toward it (Asia Times, October 5). Also noticeable in 2006 has been the strongly Afghan-centric nature of the insurgency. As in the jihad against the Red Army, the most important insurgent forces are made up of the Afghans themselves. Since Western leaders and the media focus so much attention on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda, the Afghans' dominant role in the war is often lost sight of. While al-Qaeda fighters and other so-called foreign fighters are active in Afghanistan—London's al-Hayat reports that more and more Saudi men are going to fight there since the Taliban assumed the military initiative this year—they are important but secondary contributors to the war effort (al-Hayat, October 3). As in the 1980s, the Afghans publicly and correctly point out that the U.S.-led coalition is increasingly facing a "nation in arms." On this question, for example, Taliban spokesman Abdul-Hai Mutamen highlighted the always intense nationalism and xenophobia of his countrymen when he said that while Afghans and foreign fighters "have spiritual sympathy with each other...Our resistance is a pure Afghan resistance" (Pakistan Observer, October 8). Another aspect of the Taliban's current agenda that is identical to the mujahideen's political tack in the 1980s is its definitive position that it will not participate in, or even negotiate with, President Karzai's government. In words familiar to those knowledgeable about the absolute intransigence of the Soviet-era mujahideen leaders, Taliban spokesman Mutamen recently explained that there would be no peace talks with Kabul because: "There is no independent government in Afghanistan now. The foreigners have established the current government. The occupying forces should first leave Afghanistan. We can then think of future peace talks...Our resistance, which has now spread throughout the country, is not for the sake of power or government. This is a very silly thought. We want to regain independence so our people can live under the system which they desire which is, of course, and Islamic government" (Afghan Islamic Press, October 7). As much as the Taliban's improved military performance is an ill omen for Karzai's government and the U.S.-led coalition, three other factors greatly augment the progress that the Taliban is making on the battlefield: Law-and-order: Western media reporting, newspapers published in Kabul, Herat and Kandahar, and statements by the Taliban show that crime rates are high in urban areas and that much of rural Afghanistan is plagued by bandits, warlords and narcotics traffickers. In other words, the law-and-order situation in most of the country is uncannily similar to the neatly anarchic environment that helped facilitate the Taliban's ascendancy in 1996. The failure of the Karzai government and its Western allies to deploy enough military forces to establish a reliable, country-wide law-and-order regime is the Taliban's most valuable non-military ally. Afghans invariably put the security of their families, businesses and farms above the implementation of elections and parliaments. Pakistan and Waziristan: The Afghan government and some Western officials have condemned Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's peace deal with the Pashtun tribes in the country's Waziristan region as being intended to strengthen the Taliban. The reality, however, seems to be that Musharraf made the deal because his army's presence in the tribal lands had become unsustainable politically. In addition to suffering heavy casualties in fighting Pashtun tribes, the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Waziristan—heavier casualties than those sustained by the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan—the Pakistani army's "invasion" of the province smashed Islamabad's 50-year-old modus vivendi with the tribes to live-and-let-live and brought the area to the verge of civil war. In making peace, Musharraf did what he had to do by choosing to protect Pakistan's political stability and geographic integrity over continuing an armed intervention that threatened both and which would ultimately be feckless because of the U.S.-led coalition's failure to defeat the Taliban and control the Afghan countryside. There is no question that the Taliban is stronger because of the deal—if for no other reason than the safe haven it provided—but so is Pakistan's political stability, which was being undermined by the radicalizing impact that the army's incursion had on the country's powerful pro-Taliban and pro-al-Qaeda religious parties (Daily Times, October 3). Time: The old adage that familiarity breeds contempt is no place on earth truer than in Afghanistan, and there it additionally always breeds armed resistance. In the Afghans' view, the U.S.-led coalition has occupied Afghanistan for five-plus years, has failed to deliver a more prosperous and safer society, has killed a large number of Afghan civilians and shows no sign of planning a near-term departure. Always short of patience in regard to foreigners running their affairs, most Afghans probably would concur with Taliban spokesman Mutamen's statement that "the people of Afghanistan...never accept foreign dominance...America has attacked Afghanistan without any reasonable plan or suggestions. The Americans, therefore, get nothing but the death of their soldiers in Afghanistan. We want NATO and other foreign troops to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible" (Afghan Islamic Press, October 7). Ominously, another Taliban leader, Mullah Mehmood Allah Haq Yar, claims that not only has the Pashtun-dominated Taliban's patience run out, but that the forces of the late Ahmed Shah Masood—heretofore backing Karzai—are beginning to decide that they did not defeat and evict Moscow only to be ruled by the West. In late spring 2005, Yar claims to have talked with Northern Alliance representatives who "condemned the foreign presence in the country, but insisted that the Taliban take the lead [in attacking it] and then they would follow suit." Yar claims that the Taliban's contacts with the Alliance commanders are continuing (Asia Times, October 5). Overall, the increasing pace of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan suggests it is only a matter of time until the commanders of the U.S.-led coalition are faced with telling their political leaders that a decision must be made to either heavily reinforce coalition forces—it appears that more than the 120,000 men Moscow deployed to Afghanistan in the 1980s would be necessary—or begin preparations to withdraw from the country. If taken now, such a decision would be made in the context of polls showing popular opinion in Canada and Britain turning decidedly against continued participation in the Afghan war and media reports that France may begin to withdraw its special forces from Afghanistan next spring (Associated Press, October 15).
	Find this article at: http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370167

[Valin]

but rather because the people haven't got the patience for it.


Now there you may be on to something. This is where the likes of you and I come into the picture. Telling people what is really going on with Iraq. One thing I do is print out articles and leave them laying around for anyone one to read. I've had a number of people come up and tell my "I didn't know that" (whatever "that" happens to be).

[No Truce With Kings]

There is only one reason that someone would believe this tripe -- they do not regulary read Strategy Page (http:\\www.strategypage.com).

The most telling line in the article is when it talks about "the Taliban's improved military performance." Bull. The only thing that the Taliban has improved is their ability to get their people killed: 2000+ dead, just this summer.

They did that with a 300 to 1 exchange rate, even if you count Afghan soldiers into the total. They are not even successful at attacking civilians.

[sully777]

Karzai is a weakling who has been unable to project the power that he needs to put the population under his boot. It is the only form of government that these people follow.

---

The guy has the wardrobe, though. Who wears a cape except a few superheroes and Darth Vader?

[neverdem]

The West is Running Out of Time in Afghanistan

Drat. I made the links, but I forgot to ping you.

From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

[MNJohnnie]

Nonsense. Another hysteric Neo Realists refusing to deal with the reality of a post 09-11-01 world. More of the "Run Away" dogma from the Know Nothings.

Gee how come the people on the ground asked for HUNDREDS, not THOUSANDS, of troops like this author screams?

[neverdem]

Nonsense. Another hysteric Neo Realists refusing to deal with the reality of a post 09-11-01 world. More of the "Run Away" dogma from the Know Nothings.

Gee how come the people on the ground asked for HUNDREDS, not THOUSANDS, of troops like this author screams?

NATO chief urges more troops for fighting Taliban in Afghanistan

[oyez]

the jihadists would prefer Muslim misery to westernized joy.

Its spiritual bondage.

Some people practice sexual bondage. Jihadists do the same thing in a different mentality.

[oceanview]

fine.

my only point is - don't say (not you) that this is "just a few snipers and car bombers". if that's all it was, then we could leave, since we can't leave, its more then that.

its not about a timetable - its about seeing a progression, a path to closing it out. take iraq for example, are we going to do anything there different tomorrow, that we didn't do today, to make things better? this "major operation" to secure baghdad has failed, yet we just keep doing the same thing day after day and expecting a different outcome.

[oceanview]

post 19 is right on - unless the bases of operation in Pakistan are attacked with air power, we won't be able to close this out.

[bitt]

" we have poured foreign aid in, we have begged for reconciliation, hosted elections, built schools and hospitals, and the jihadists would prefer muslim misery to westernized joy."


Sooner or later the leaders of our fair country need to say "sorry, we're busy" when misery comes knocking at these ungrateful nations' doors...Earthquakes, tsunamis, genocides, pestilence, etc., these places of violence and desperation might have to burn themselves out.

No more "we are the world" fundraisers, no more "we love you" fests....these countries are akin to termite nests under our back steps. Containment and defensive postures might be all we can pursue until they produce some rational leaders.

Give Karsai and areas of tranquility some protection and civilization and hope, and make the outsiders so wanting that they will try to sneak into the light. And hope they aren't wearing explosives.

[John Lenin]

We need to start busting the heroin dealers, let them grow it, pay the locals, and than swoop in and take down the booty and the dealers.

[bybybill]

Please,take some time and learn about the Vietnam War and the NVA stratagy. The same thing is going on today. Prolong the war till America quits. The political enemies of the US President will slant the news, a few American troops will cross a line, the "world will protest" Americans will forget why we are at war, soldiers will die, the President and/or his supports lose an election and we end the war by leaving. Neat deal.
The problem is that the reason we went to war in the first place is still there. Millions died or are still imprisioned in Southeast Asia. Iraq will become the headquarters for terrorism. And with their victory over us, and the oil, they will continue to threaten the world.

[oceanview]

yes, but there is also another lesson of Vietnam - the US has to fight to win. that's the missing piece in this, 20% of the americans who "oppose the iraq war" are republicans who want us to either fight to win, or leave. when they don't see the "fight to win" part being executed, they sour on it.

[Fishrrman]

The Taliban is a movement that is not going to be erased from the face of the earth short of exterminating the population in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We can defeat them on the battlefield time and time again but as long as people choose to embrace this form of Islam the battle will continue for years to come.

If we take what you have written at face value (and I do), then what must be done if we are to ultimately defeat them?

- John

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[MarMema]

Russia eager to renovate Salang Tunnel

"He said the Russian authorities also assured of their cooperation in training, equipping and strengthening of Afghan police and military."

[Thunder90]

These are the same Cut and Run traitors calling for withdrawl from Iraq. Now they want to cut and run from Afghanistan as well. They even want to cut and run from South Korea, so they won't be able to stop North Korea when they invade the South.

[neverdem]

These are the same Cut and Run traitors calling for withdrawl from Iraq. Now they want to cut and run from Afghanistan as well. They even want to cut and run from South Korea, so they won't be able to stop North Korea when they invade the South.

I believe they are trying to make a warning about Afghanistan? How do you draw any of those unrelated conclusions?

[gleeaikin]

"You don't fight a guerrilla war the same way you fight a conventional war."

I just finished reading Tom Clancy's "Shadow Warriors", a factual study of Special Forces troups and actions. He points out that the "Big Army" generally has a low opinion of SF and does not use them well. Panama and the seizure of Noriega was a brilliant exception. Unfortunately, both Iraq and Afghanistan are influenced too much by the Big Army viewpoint, which is favored by Rumsfeld.

My son, who just came back from 8 months in SF in Afghanistan was totally frustrated by the inadequate utilization of SF while he was there. Unfortunately, I do not see this changing with Rumsfeld in charge unless he changes his viewpoint.

Clancey's book has an excellent chapter on the "Lebanon Tragedy". Well worth reading if that is an area of your interest. It clearly describes the various groups in the conflict, and the mistakes Israel made leading up to the present mess.

[WOSG]

Unfortunately, both Iraq and Afghanistan are influenced too much by the Big Army viewpoint, which is favored by Rumsfeld. "

Uh, you have this backward. Rumsfeld has pushed 'transformation' on the Big Army types since 2001, and they pushed back ... partly in the MSM, which is a hidden agenda reason for a lot of the negative press Rumsfeld gets.

Remember, Rumsfeld approved the Franks Afghan operation, which was mostly an SF operation with no boots on ground practically. And it worked. We toppled the taliban in 7 weeks.