Posted on 10/18/2006 12:59:40 PM PDT by Kaslin
The GOP is [rearranging] "deckchairs on the Titanic," and single women will propel Hillary Clinton to the White House in 2008, says political analyst Dick Morris.
Republicans are watching their base shrink dramatically in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, said Morris, appearing on "Your World" with Neil Cavuto.
The former Clinton advisor and confidante pointed to a recent Gallup poll that revealed what has happened among church-going whites, whom Morris called "the ultimate GOP base." They are "splitting 47-47 in their vote," he told Cavuto, who said "Then it's a matter of just sitting home [on election day] but they're actually voting for the other guy."
Said Morris: "White church-goers have moved 21 points away from the Republicans in margin since pre-Foley," Morris explained. The percentage of white, frequent church-goers that vote Republican has dropped from 58 pre-Foley to 47 now."
Cavuto asked if the strong equity market and pretty good economic numbers were "falling on deaf ears?" Morris recalled that there were pretty decent economic numbers in 1994 under the Democrats when the GOP captured control of Congress.
Noting that the good economy is not helping because it takes a "long time for the economy to percolate through" and thus cannot help the GOP, Morris said the "short term cause" of the coming Republican disaster is "the base abandoning the Republican party because the Foley scandal hurt - you can't imagine how much that scandal hurt." Morris said incredulously, "Right now Democrats have an 8 point lead over Republicans on promoting morality in America? Duh!"
Cavuto commented that even though we have a Dow flirting with 12,000, the Evangelical base is saying "it's not the money it's morality." He asked, "That's going to trump all?" Morris said, "I think the Republican Party has survived because of [Karl] Rove's fabulous capacity to generate the base, but now we're having the base slipping out."
He explained that most politicians work on getting a percentage of the voters who are out there, but Hillary Clinton works on increasing the number of voters on her side.
He pointed out the recent article which revealed that half of all households in the U.S. are unmarried. He also said that 19 million single women voted in 2000, and 28 million voted in '04. "And I'll bet 35 million vote" in 2006. "The number of single mom, minimum wage earning waitresses who come out and vote are going to be the phenomenon."
Hillary might not do that well among the current electorate, Morris said, but she'll grow the electorate by 10 million votes and that's how she'll win.
Madame Jean, the fortune teller at Salisbury Beach, had more credibility than Dick Morris has.
Hmmm... quite unimpressive if the Wiki entry is any indicator.
He seems to be a look-at-the-current-situation-and-extrapolate-it-to-the-future kind of fellow.
You know, the kind of guy who makes predictions at the spur of the moment.
It would be great to keep this thread bumped for at least 2 weeks just for comparison purposes.
So I suspect that you can see the difference between an intelligent, decent person and anybody that votes Dhimmicrat for any reason.
The only Evengelicals to worry about are the ones who might vote Constitution. Almost none would ever consider voting Dim.
If this is true, they weren't a "base" to begin with.
So are you saying that a "base" stays with a party no matter what? Would that just make them just like the cadres of other single party states like the so-called "base" of the chinese communists or the baathists?
Foley was the straw my friend. There are a huge number of issues where the GOP is not leading in the direction and/or speed that true conservatives want.
If the "base", which I judge to be the true Americans, feels the need to send the one true American party a message, I think there must be a reason beyond "one bad apple". Dont you think?
He sat in London on Election night 2000 and predicted gore to win by 5 points. He had kerry winning in 2004 by 7.
LLS
That's with a + - error of 3%
We still have to hope that this blind squirrel doesn't find his nuts.
The amazing thing is -- he dares to publicly declare Hillary as the next President, fully 2 years before the next presidential elections !!
Without even the primaries in the horizon !!
He is also on record as predicting a Rice vs Hillary contest, even in the face of Condi's continous denial that she's interested in running.
I remember election morning 2004 seeing Morris on Fox News explaining why Bush lost. He's goofy.
This actually makes me feel better about the GOP's prospects. Morris is ALWYAS wrong about his predictions.
This is just the normal wishful thinking of the MSM arm of the 'RAT party. They said the same thing three weeks before they lost in 2004. Ignore them, remember our beliefs, and vote straight GOP in November to show the drivebys that they do NOT understand anything about us regardless of the phony polls!
I have a fair amount of respect for Morris, but his analysis here escapes me.
First, the idea that single women will come out in droves for Hillary is lost on me. Hillary isn't a single woman. She's a woman who has used her marriage to advance her career. So what would make her so attractive to a single woman?
I also believe that Morris completely overlooks the fact that a significant number of men (and women) will not vote for a woman for president under any circumstances (maybe with an exception for a Margaret Thatcher type, which Hillary is not). Someone posted a poll here some time ago that put the number in the high 20 percent. If that's true, such a factor would overwhelm any groundswell of support from single women.
But I still suspect that for a significant percentage (at least 20%) of single women the reaction to the name "Hillary Clinton" is "cant stand her."
>>Morris recalled that there were pretty decent economic numbers in 1994 under the Democrats when the GOP captured control of Congress.<<
NOT TRUE. Not only was the market flat in 1994, people woke up in April of 1994 to see tax bills and required payments astronomically higher or refunds slashed.
Morris must be sucking some pretty nasty toes....
He acts like he's suffering from hoof and mouth disease.
Semper Fi
Just testing new tagline.
Good tagline
Exactly. We can all rest easy. Morris's predictive powers are proporionately inverse to reality.
I think we're going to take this one in spite of the firestorm of psyops and black propoganda the liberal media has been throwing our way.
But, in the event that we don't, let's not have any pictures of Republicans looking like the sorry liberal mopes in Ouderkirk's pictures.
Never let the bad guys see you upset. We are part of a great tradition, we are happy warriors and always bounce back to fight another day.
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