Posted on 10/17/2006 12:30:24 PM PDT by Incorrigible
BY JOHN FARMER
CLEVELAND -- Nowhere this year is the decline in Republican midterm election fortunes more evident than here in Ohio.
For close to two decades, the Buckeye State has been the most solidly Republican big state outside the South. During most of that time, both houses of the Legislature, most of the 88 county courthouses and the lion's share of state judicial seats, a big majority of the state's congressional delegation and both U.S. Senate seats have been in GOP hands. And it has been 20 years since a Democrat has been elected governor.
The Republican monopoly, managed by perhaps the most efficient GOP machine in the country, mirrors the dominance the party enjoys in Washington, where it controls the White House, Congress and most of the federal judiciary.
Barring an "October surprise," however, that domination could change dramatically if polls hold up.
The Iraq war, President Bush's low popularity ratings and a dismal view of Congress amplified by the Mark Foley page scandal are burdens for Republicans here as elsewhere. But Ohio Republicans face special problems -- a stagnant economy and the record of Gov. Bob Taft, whose administration has been plagued by corruption and who personally pleaded guilty to taking illegal gifts. Taft's approval rating is mired in the low teens.
It's no surprise then that Democrats are heavily favored to capture the Ohio governor's office. But they also lead narrowly in the race for a U.S. Senate seat now held by a two-term Republican, Sen. Mike DeWine, and are unexpectedly competitive in races for at least three U.S. House seats currently in GOP hands. Two of these seats are among five nationally that have attracted the most campaign spending.
Friday's guilty plea by veteran Republican Rep. Robert Ney to charges relating to bribes he took from influence peddler Jack Abramoff was yet another blow to the GOP's image here. Ney withdrew from his re-election race in August.
The fear of Republicans in Washington is that the sudden show of Democratic strength in Ohio, with its history as a bellwether state in national elections, could be an omen for GOP fortunes elsewhere.
Republicans here make no attempt to paint a rosier-than-reality picture. In Columbus, John McClelland, communications director of the Ohio Republican Central Committee, cited local conditions, Bush's problems in Washington and the Iraq war in describing the climate for Republicans as "difficult."
"It's not impossible" for Republicans to win, he said, "but it is difficult."
The key to Democratic hopes is Ted Strickland, a congressman from southern Ohio who's a near-prohibitive favorite to end the long Democratic drought at the gubernatorial level. His poll lead over his GOP rival, Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, has been in double digits for months.
If Strickland's lead lasts, Democrats here say, it will help Democrats down the ballot, especially in the race for the U.S. Senate, where DeWine, a moderate conservative, is running neck and neck with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown, a conventional liberal who represents a suburban district in the Cleveland area.
The Senate contest here is seen by both parties as critical to determining whether Democrats gain the six seats they need to become the Senate majority in the next Congress.
The hurdle Democrats face in Ohio is the absence in much of the state of anything resembling an effective party organization.
"That's what happens when you're out of control in Columbus (state government) for 20 years," said Tim Hagan, the Democratic nominee for governor four years ago and currently a Cuyahoga (Cleveland and suburbs) County commissioner. "No patronage, no party," Hagan said, "and without jobs and the power of the purse you can't sustain a party organization, you can't raise money, especially when you've been out of power as long as we have."
The Democratic Party's decline nationally has occurred simultaneously with the loss of governors' offices over the last 15 years, especially in the largest states, like Ohio, with the most Electoral College votes and the most money. Besides Ohio, Democrats this year have targeted governor's offices in New York, Massachusetts and Maryland now held by Republicans as a step toward improving the party's presidential prospects in 2008. They're favored in all four states.
For all their new energy and activity, Democrats can't win here on their strength of their own base among labor, minorities and social and economic liberals. They need Republican defections -- and there are signs that's occurring.
Charles "Rocky" Saxbe, a lawyer in Columbus, is a lifelong Republican whose father was a U.S. senator from Ohio and U.S. attorney general in the Nixon years. But he's openly supporting Strickland, he said, for reasons involving the scandal-scarred record of the Taft administration and what he called "the shrill message on values" of the Bush administration.
He was especially critical of Karl Rove, Bush's political guru, and what Saxbe called "Rovian scorched earth" campaign tactics. They've worked in past elections, Saxbe said, but "they've begun to backfire."
Blackwell, the GOP candidate for governor, symbolizes what Saxbe sees as a too-far-right Republican message. An African-American and once a black-power advocate, Blackwell today is a fierce opponent of abortion rights, gun control and stem cell research. He's a favorite of the Christian right, a major part of the Ohio Republican base which, in many cases, operates openly out of evangelical churches.
Both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races here have produced signature issues and real policy choices. Strickland and Blackwell offer competing plans to spark the state economy -- Blackwell emphasizes business tax cuts, Strickland spending for education and job training. Ohio has lost some 300,000 jobs, mostly in manufacturing, during Bush's tenure; the state's unemployment rate runs about a point above the national average.
In the Senate race, Republican DeWine and Democrat Brown are starkly different personalities -- the bespectacled DeWine soft-spoken and mild, Brown crisp and forceful. While critical of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, DeWine backs the Bush policy in Iraq and emphasizes the threat of terrorism. Brown, while refusing to set a date for a U.S. troop drawdown, is sharply critical of Bush's conduct of the Iraq war and sees it as diverting assets and energy from the fight against terrorism.
The overriding impression, however, is the candidates and their differences are overshadowed by the widespread reaction to two men not on the ballot -- President Bush and Gov. Taft -- and the record of events in Washington and Columbus the last few years.
Oct. 17, 2006
(John Farmer is national political correspondent for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. He can be contacted at jfarmer@starledger.com)
Not for commercial use. For educational and discussion purposes only.
They didn't fool me.
They didn't fool me.
Didn't fool me once...shame on me.
Didn't fool me twice...shame on my mouse button?
This is just another round between the CountryClubbers vs. the GrassRoots. Been there, done that. GrassRoots Republicans will vote for RINOs (while holding their nose), but it doesn't seem like it works the other way around. Ken Blackwell is the future of the Ohio GOP, but it's hard to get the current CountryClubbers to see the light.
Good news and just released poll hidden at CNN:
Poll: Foley scandal ranks low among election issues
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/16/foley/index.html
Like the 2004 exit polls?
Who's home in the middle of the day when they conduct most of the phone polls? Employed people?
There is only one poll that matters, and it takes place on November 7th.
John Farmer sounds like a Girly Poster It for my tagline.
What a load of bs?
We'll just have to choose not to participate in this MSM wet dream.
Yesterday, it was Ohio Democrats Nervous about GOP's Superior Get-Out-The-Vote Efforts.
Today it's GOP Fears Ohio Democrats' Strength a Nationwide Omen.
-PJ
I love you.
To see the Dems in full suicidal hysterical moonbat mode should be reason enough to hold your nose and vote for even the RINOs. The 2 years of entertainment will be worth putting up with DeWine for 6.
I will be happily voting for Ken Blackwell.
Blackwell embodies the reforms necessary to the Ohio Republican party. I do wonder if RINOs in the Ohio GOP will try to subvert Blackwell.
I still think he will win.
Right here is an example of media bias. In fact, Brown calls for US combat force withdrawl from Iraq. No he didn't set a "date". He just wants them out. I read that to mean "now" or "as soon as possible". Hardly the impression this article would give you, though. Also, since we're fighting and killing terrorists in Iraq, how does that divert from the goal of fighting terrorists? It's really a stupid statement. It's like saying,
"Yes, while we're killing terrorists in Iraq, we're also not winning enough, so let's leave this $hithole and go kill terrorists elsewhere, even if we don't find as many to kill as we do in Iraq."
DeWine will also win.
;0)
Did ya'll catch this? This is straight out of the NY Times new talking point that Americans are "tired" of all this "values talk."
This guy reminds me of some businessmen that sat behind me in the donut shop in 2000, and were all concerned about Bush's connections to "Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson." The fact is, these kinds of people like to boink their secretaries and not face any kind of judgment, but they vote Republican so that their wallets stay fat.
So I don't know if this guy EVER voted for Bush or voted for the Republican ticket, but I don't mind if he votes for "pedophile Ted."
I've been out walking for Blackwell. Excellent experiences, but I've been over that. My son just registered R and will vote for DeWine and Blackwell for the first time this year.
The media know what the problems are of some Republicans in Ohio and they know many of those problems are not actual increases in attraction to Democrats.
The Repbublican problems in Ohio are a disaffected Republican base that is disaffected not because some critical Ohio Republicans are not "moderate" enough, but because they, like many in Washington, have abandoned too many Republican principals - like small government and low taxes. The low polls for some Ohio Republicans reflect conservative, not moderate anger at some of them.
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