Poll: Brown has slight lead over DeWine in Senate race (DeWine down 14, Blackwell down 28)

WKYC-TV Channel 3 ^ | 12 October 2006 | WKYC

[okstate]

A SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Brown defeats DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown.

Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 54% to 40% in a vote today.

Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/21/06, Brown has gained 2 points and DeWine has lost 2 points.

Brown's lead has grown from 10 to 14 points.

Male voters still prefer Brown by 1 point, but Brown's lead among women has grown from 19 points to 26 points in the last 3 weeks.

DeWine holds 83% of his Republican base. Brown holds 90% of his Democrat base.

Brown leads by 22 points among Independents.

Republican DeWine leads by 64 points among Conservatives.

Democrat Brown leads by 75 points among Liberals.

Among Moderates, Democrat Brown leads by 45 points, up from a 31-point lead with this group last month.

DeWine wins 3:2 in Western OH. Brown wins 2:1 in Central and Eastern OH.

The election is on 11/7/2006.

DeWine was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. Brown was first elected to Congress in 1992.

If the election for United States Senator were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Dewine? Democrat Sherrod Brown? Or some other candidate?

40% DeWine (R) 54% Brown (D) 6% Other/Undecided

Asked of 515 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = plus / minus 4.4%

[LS]

See the post right after yours.

As of today my take is, Corker, DeWine, Kean, Chafee all win. Santorum down 5, Steele a tossup. Don't have any recent info on Burns. He's probably the MOST likely to lose, even more so than Santorum.

Blackwell has the mo, and will win a squeaker.

[HostileTerritory]

This poll (which I believe overstates Brown's lead significantly) does show a very substantial disconnect between western Ohio, which still leans Republican, and central and northern Ohio, which poll strongly Democrat. The polls appear to be showing partisan swings biggest in the Columbus area and rural eastern Ohio, not necessarily places like Dayton and Cincinnati. Which does bode well for Chabot and Schmidt.

[Clump]

Great to hear!! Keep up the hard work, and maybe we can salvage this election year. Every single seat matters as you well know. What is going on in TN be the way? I sure don't want to give up that southern seat.

[LS]

I haven't followed Chabot and Schmidt much, but I don't think either is in trouble.

[LS]

If the polls say a "tossup" in TN, consider that a Corker victory.

[Sister_T]

Thanks for bringing perspective as you are actually HERE IN OHIO, on the ground, doing the legwork.

[RockinRight]

WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown

So three liberal Dinosaur Network TV stations take a poll of urban liberals and Brown ONLY wins by 14? Looks like we have a good chance.

[RockinRight]

http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2006/meet_sherrod_brown

[RockinRight]

The odd thing around Akron:

The Blackwell signs I am seeing are in mostly Black neighborhoods. The Strickland signs I've seen in the heaviest abundance are in Fairlawn (a more affluent suburban area.)

If Blackwell gets even 25% of the Black vote...Strickland is toast.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

I consider the recon of boots on the ground more indicative of the actual situation than the "satellite photography" provided by the polls. BTW, polls do not win elections. I wish everyone who spends one hour reporting on polls spends at least two hours doing precinct or county-wide campaign work like you are doing.

[AntiGuv]

That may bode well for Chabot and Schmidt, but it's dreadful for Pryce in the Columbus area OH-15, whose own internal polling "fell precipitously" due to the Foley debacle. It may also raise some doubt as to Tiberi's neighboring OH-12 seat, which isn't getting any attention at all despite his opponent pledging over a million to the campaign.

[RockinRight]

I second that, but I say Steele wins...





...by about 250 votes.

[lasereye]

Thanks for that dose of reality. All anyone seems to know is "the polls are all wrong, they're rigged, Republicans don't answer the phone", blah blah blah.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Support that falls that precipitously can be quickly regained.

[AntiGuv]

That's an excellent point, and Pryce certainly wasn't taking anything for granted, in any event.

[griswold3]

Thanks for all your work!
Big push for Blackwell expected the weekend before the election.

[lasereye]

These GOP congressmen have to counterattack and not keep playing defense. Try - "The reason so and so wants to talk about Foley is to change the subject from taxes, the economy, abortion, national security. Why doesn't so and so want to talk about those things? Because so and so and his party are on the wrong side of those issues."

A few of them know how to do this but not many for some reason.

[kabar]

LOL. Rubbish. The Reps hold both houses of the state legislature: House [59 Reps/40 Dems]; Senate [22 Reps/11 Dems]. The Ohio Congressional House delegation is composed of 12 Reps and 6 Dems plus two Rep Senators. How does a sample of 43% Dems and 37% Reps reflect the political reality?

[HostileTerritory]

If Blackwell gets even 25% of the Black vote...Strickland is toast.

Blackwell's getting 32% of the black vote in this poll and still losing, 60%-32%. He's doing very badly among white voters. Ohio isn't a state like Mississippi where the electorate is polarized on racial lines.

What I'd like to see are polls or information about the Ohio legislature. We have huge majorities there now and the maps favor us... are the RATs making any inroads at all? A Democrat takeover is impossible, and after four years of stalemate between Strickland and a Republican legislature voters will be likely to return to traditional conservative patterns.

[RockinRight]

There's no way he's doing THAT badly among white voters. That's why I don't buy these polls showing him down 28. Even Walter Mondale did better than that in 84!