Posted on 10/12/2006 10:45:20 AM PDT by okstate
A SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Brown defeats DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown.
Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 54% to 40% in a vote today.
Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/21/06, Brown has gained 2 points and DeWine has lost 2 points.
Brown's lead has grown from 10 to 14 points.
Male voters still prefer Brown by 1 point, but Brown's lead among women has grown from 19 points to 26 points in the last 3 weeks.
DeWine holds 83% of his Republican base. Brown holds 90% of his Democrat base.
Brown leads by 22 points among Independents.
Republican DeWine leads by 64 points among Conservatives.
Democrat Brown leads by 75 points among Liberals.
Among Moderates, Democrat Brown leads by 45 points, up from a 31-point lead with this group last month.
DeWine wins 3:2 in Western OH. Brown wins 2:1 in Central and Eastern OH.
The election is on 11/7/2006.
DeWine was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. Brown was first elected to Congress in 1992.
If the election for United States Senator were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Dewine? Democrat Sherrod Brown? Or some other candidate?
40% DeWine (R) 54% Brown (D) 6% Other/Undecided
Asked of 515 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = plus / minus 4.4%
This sampling found that 43 percent of Ohioan likely voters are Democrats, 37 percent are Republicans and 19 percent are independents. This would indicate that Democrats are feeling more motivated to vote in Ohio this year. I'm a little curious about the headline... 14 points... "slight"? Anyway, DeWine is performing very differently in Rasmussen and Survey USA polling, who have him losing by a substantial number... and then in Mason-Dixon and Zogby, who have the race very close. Columbus Dispatch is in the middle. I bet DeWine is down, but by no more than 5-8 points. As for Blackwell... maybe 10-15 points.
Now if you liberals could only put your enthusiasm into such benficial things as creating wealth, instead of liberal dogma.
DeWine only has himself to blame. He is toast.
A GOP wipe-out in Ohio will be Bob Taft's final gift to the state.
I don't get it if democrats outnumber republicans by 2 to 1 (37% TO 19%) how is it that Ohio is and has been a republican state for many, many years? Although it's always fairly close.
The poll is 43% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 19% Independent.
Go to Redstate.com go to page three find Meet Sherrod Brown. Best political ad ever. This spot must be put on TV it is 2 minutes of dynomite. You will love it. Turn up the speakers and enjoy it. It is 2/3 of the way down.
This seems to be an outliner to other polls that has shown Dewine pulling into the lead.
Did you see the pair of Chocola polls... GOP has him down 1, Dems showing 16 point lead for them.
1) Just out again YESTERDAY in old Kettering, which should be a significantly DEMOCRATIC precinct. (This goes along with the other older precincts that should be heavily Dem.)
Now, just so you really get the significance of this, Bush lost Mont. Co. by a little; and Ted cannot win OH without Montgomery Co.
2) I would go ENTIRE STREETS and not see a registered Dem on our list. NOT ONE. This is close to 1000 homes we've done in two weeks. Of those registered "R"s we do a lit drop at, they are ALL people who have voted in the last four elections. We're talking about almost every house we've come across in these precincts.
3) Dozens of Blackwell signs. One Strickland sign. One. And it belonged to a registered Dem.
4) STILL no appearance whatsoever of Dems out knocking on doors, doing lit drops. My peeps tell me that they have not seen the Dems out once---not ONE SINGLE TIME---and we walk six days a week!
5) Overall, we've dropped almost 200,000 pieces of lit in the last two weeks alone. This is the second most effective GOTV technique, behind only personal calls.
Anyone that thinks DeWine is in anything below "tossup" position now is mental. Internal polls from BOTH sides are now showing Ken within 5---maybe better. But you be the judge: doctored polls that identify Republicans as "Dems" or boots on the ground that are seeing people in what should be a "swing" district" every day.
Oh, and the DeWine signs exceed the Blackwell signs.
The poll is 43% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 19% Independent.
_____
Of course it is. The Democrats are the majority party. They why the have the White House, Senate, House and all those governorships.
Just ask your favorite news anchor.
Yep, and the median 8.5% Donnelly lead is probably about right...
Governor Taft and the legislature have done a ton of damage. It's a battleground state, so shifts in mood about a party can be very big and sweep out a lot of officeholders.
That is good. If that happens they will bitch and whine about how Blackwell stole the election or something to that effect.
The pollsters do NOT intentionally fabricate a result. The methodology (non Rasmussen) is simply highly questionable and probably wrong.
They call voters and ask them to self identify as to party. They call randomly and whatever mix they get, that's what they get. The number of hangups pollsters get now are averaging 2 hangups per successful call. That is more self selection.
There is no proof Republicans hang up more readily. And it is impossible to prove a negative so you cannot prove that they don't hang up more readily.
The flaw in the process is that there is no proof that hangups are equally distributed. That is what makes the results doubtful. Only near the end, during the last few days, does the number of phone calls go up and the hangups fall off because people are finally thinking about it and willing to talk.
I agree that this poll is a little skewed. I think Survey USA is overdoing this poll. But DeWine better get his act together soon.
PS: You have been trolling for long and it may be time for the mods to take you out.
I am hearing the same thing from contacts within the RNC.
LLS
That's also what Jay found. He found the Dem registration numbers were bogus because they KEPT all the "new registrations" but never did cull out all the people who have left the state, and given the blue-collar job losses, they are 100% DEM. In short, if you don't adjust for the changes in REAL voter registration (ie., who has really voted) you will think there are 1 million more Dems in OH than there are.
Now this is embarassing.
This is not even close to reality.
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