Bachmann (R) leads Wetterling by 3 in new Survey USA poll of MN-06 (47-44)

Survey USA ^ | 9 October 2006 | Survey USA

[okstate]

DFL Wetterling Gaining On Bachmann in MN6:

In an election in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 10/9/05, Republican Michele Bachmann leads DFL Candidate Patty Wetterling, 47% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis.

Since an identical SurveyUSA KSTP-TV poll released 9/19/06, Bachmann has lost 3 points and Wetterling has gained 3 points. Bachmann had led by 9, now leads by 3.

There is day-to-day movement within this survey that may or may not be significant. SurveyUSA has broken out separately, as a crosstab, in the tabular display, the results from 10/6, 10/7 and 10/8.

Separately, SurveyUSA includes a "Timeline" box. Bachmann today gets 88% of Republican votes. Wetterling gets 83% of Democrat votes. Independents split.

Wetterling leads by 10 points among voters age 50 to 64, and by 7 points among voters age 65+. 3 weeks ago these age groups were split evenly. Bachmann leads among voters under age 50.

Wetterling leads by 10 points among voters with household income under $40K. 3 weeks ago, this group supported Bachmann by 7 points, a 17-point swing.

Bachmann leads by 16 points among men. Wetterling leads by 9 points among women.

Bachmann leads by 79 points among conservatives. Wetterling leads by 71 points among liberals and by 24 points among moderates.

Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 89% choose Bachmann. Of those who disapprove of Bush's job performance, 76% choose Wetterling. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District is 42%.

Incumbent 3-term Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy is running for the U.S. Senate this year. The House seat is open. Wetterling lost to Kennedy by 8 points in 2004. The election is on 11/7/06.

669 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 3.9%

[Torie]

Wheat folks can surprise once in awhile, absent an incumbent. I remember when a Dem came close in the place (or maybe that was western Kansas). Whatever. Wheat is wheat, although western Nebraska has some unionized railroad folks, in fact a lot to them, as I learned from John McPhee in his excellent essay (he is always excellent), about the massive volume of rail cars filled with coal from Wyoming moving down the Nebraska rail lines (with each rail stop named one letter up in the alphabet, or down). Who knew? :)

[AntiGuv]

I'll certainly notice, and will likely be consumed with envy when you don't reply to my next ratings ping.

Have a great trip!

[Torie]

Thank you. I have an "audience" with the Pope scheduled, probably with a horde, whatever "audience" means. No jeans is the dress code. I plan to wear a black suit.

[Torie]

And cattle or course. All hat, no cattle.

[justiceseeker93]

Are those all current GOP seats on your lists?

What does the asterisk mean?

How about current Dem seats? Are they so cocky to think every single one of them is secure? I'd say Irey has a decent shot at upsetting Murtha in PA.

[Torie]

Asterisk means the Pubbie incumbent has decamped for more Elysian fields, and have decided to take this job and stuff it.

[AntiGuv]

Those are just the GOP seats. I haven't changed any of the Dem seats since my last formal update, so I didn't repost that, but here's my full Dem-held seat list.

Lean Democratic

01 (IL-08) Bean
02 (GA-08) Marshall
03 (VT-AL) Sanders(I)*
04 (WV-01) Mollohan
05 (GA-12) Barrow
06 (IA-03) Boswell
07 (LA-03) Melancon
08 (TX-17) Edwards
09 (OR-05) Hooley

Likely Democratic

09 (IL-17) Evans*
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar
13 (OH-06) Strickland*
14 (NC-13) Miller
15 (PA-12) Murtha
16 (OH-13) Brown*
17 (KS-03) Moore
18 (LA-02) Jefferson

Asterisks denote open seats.

[Torie]

How far down the list do you have my Congressman, Campbell of California (that was where the Gilcrist action was, as you know)? If you have a list down to 63, maybe you have a list down to 125.

[justiceseeker93]

OK, Baumann is a bit of a hottie, but I'd emphasize "bit."

But she plays second fiddle in that department to Diana Irey, the GOP candidate for the senile Murtha's seat in PA-12.

What you're seeing there in the poll is the old "gender gap," or "orgasm gap" in the words of Rush Limbaugh. But that gap is higher than usual, so there's perhaps a problem in the polling technique.

[AntiGuv]

It does get a bit crowded at times. Is it a special occasion? I guess papal audiences always are.

Make sure to let me know if you have any revelations. I'd watch out for lightning bolts if it were me. :)

[justiceseeker93]

CORRECTION: It's BACHMANN. My apologies.

[Torie]

It is about a canonization of a saint who founded an order of nuns in Indiana in the 1840's, and has obviously had a hand in doing good and miraculous works since her corporeal body turned to dust. I have a connection as it where with a women on the Board of Directors of the order of nuns; thus my very odd paticipating in the witnessing, and festivities. I think that the audience will be indoors; thus the dress code. But hey, I am well, not proficient in thus stuff!

[AntiGuv]

Heh. Well, my list doesn't go past 62 right now, and was at 72 at it's largest extent this year, but I can estimate that John Campbell (CA-48) would be about #144 if I went that far. A totally meaningless figure, of course!

[Sam Spade]

Have a good time in Rome. I'm sure it's nice this time of year.