Posted on 10/05/2006 1:41:42 PM PDT by Drew McKissick
At this point, the pending 2008 Republican nomination contest looks like it will eventually be a battle between two candidates: John McCain and the “anti-McCain”.
To some degree, McCain still has some work to do in locking up his end of the party, such as it is. He’s still being stalked by Rudi Giuliani, who keeps popping up right along with McCain at or near the top of early GOP horse race polls. The problem for McCain is that they both seem to be fishing in the same pond, so he will have to nail down his left flank before he can look to his right, which is where the vast majority of Republican primary voters are. But given that, it’s a virtual certainty – as sure as his ego is large – that McCain will be one of two serious contenders left standing by the time the primaries and caucuses are in full swing.
The real contest will be the “anti-McCain” primary – the preliminary battle among conservative candidates to convince the party base that they can 1) beat McCain and 2) beat the Democrats in the general election.
The list of candidates in the anti-McCain primary is large and growing. There’s Virginia Senator George Allen, (who must first win re-election this fall), Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, (who currently chairs the Republican Governor’s Association), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, (who would certainly make any debate more interesting), New York Governor George Pataki, Congressman Mike Pence and Congressman Tom Tancredo, (of anti-amnesty fame), just to name a few.
That list is no doubt overly exhaustive, and the mere march of time as well as pending events will trim it considerably.
For example, the South Carolina Republican Party will host the first nationally televised GOP presidential candidate’s debate in May of 2007, just five days prior to its state convention which will feature a presidential straw poll of the delegates. This will provide an early glimpse of candidate strength with a representative sample of the party base, and the people most likely to do the work in the coming campaigns. The Iowa GOP and a few other states will likely follow suite with other straw polls later in the year.
Then there’s the contest for staff, and there are only so many good local operatives in early primary and caucus states to go around. Some hires are already being made, but this will pick up in earnest when the 2006 elections are over next month, as the candidates will officially “come out of the closet”. For now, most people are being less anxious than the candidates as they try to evaluate who has the best chance of becoming the “anti-McCain” alternative.
Lastly, there’s the money primary. In short, given a frontloaded calendar with so many early caucuses and primaries, any candidate who hasn’t been able to raise about twenty million or so by Christmas of 2007 is probably wasting their time and will begin to hemorrhage support. Those that have money towards the fall will begin to attract still more money and volunteer support like a magnet.
Given these realities, who is the likely anti-McCain winner? Early money would be put on Allen (assuming he wins re-election) and Romney. Both can raise money, have large networks and appeal to the base on the issues. Not to say someone else wouldn’t sneak in, but it would be difficult.
Allen’s a solid conservative, with a record that’s acceptable to pretty much any element of the party. He’s a popular former governor, with a large network of support including other governors. Recently, former Bush advisor and national Republican Chairman Ed Gillespie signed on as Allen’s finance chairman for his political action committee, (the precursor to any presidential bid).
Romney also has good national connections and fundraising ability as well, in addition to good positioning on the issues. And yes, he’s Mormon, but there are questions as to whether it is actually proving to be the negative many pundits suggested it would only months ago. And don’t underestimate what some Republicans would overlook in exchange for beating McCain.
So how does it all play out? Despite continued references to Republican’s historical deference to candidates whose “turn” it is, McCain will not have an easy time. Any such benefit he may receive is offset by his repeated offenses against the party base on issues like campaign finance reform, judicial nominees, immigration, the Federal Marriage Amendment and, most recently, treatment of terrorist detainees. Not to mention his record of less than flattering statements regarding some conservatives.
From a tactical standpoint, he’ll find the state primary landscape more difficult this time, as some state GOP organizations, such as Michigan and South Carolina, are moving to keep Democrats from voting in their primaries. This would be unlike in 2000 when McCain benefited greatly from crossover voting.
A successful anti-McCain candidate will unify the social, religious and fiscal conservative elements of the party. And the quicker one of them stands alone against McCain, the better off they will be.
McCain vs. the deep South and Midwest conservatives. McCain loses.
Condi Rice is the Anti-McCain. She will beat McCain, and will then beat whomever the Donks put up. She will be our next President of the United States, and we could do much, much worse.
McLame will NEVER get my vote. Dimocrap smear tactics will not turn me off. But, McLame as the Republican candidate?
George Allen first needs to win re-election, which he'll do, but his performance in this year's campaign hasn't raised his stature as a presidential contender. Mitt Romney stands the best chance of any that are listed. Most of the rest haven't distinguished themselves enough to even be considered as possibilities. And why do you give Rudy short-shrift? If he declares himself in, he's automatically the frontrunner.
Going to be Huckabe I bet
There is one thing I am certain about regarding the 2008 contest...aliens will land on the White House lawn before John McCain ever gets the Republican nomination.
I hope to heaven you are right. If the GOP nominates that RINO I know lots of people who will stay home or vote third party. I'm one of them.
I'm with you: Condi Rice in 2008!!!!
Nevertheless are best shot is Allen with Rudy on the undercard IMHO. Rudy would put NJ and NY into play and will do well in cities where GOP do poorly.
I believe the Clintons will put up another Ross Perot-Hitlery is then elected.
are=our. Time for some more caffeine.
McCain will be 72 years old in 2008, too far down the pike to be President IMHO.
But, you know what? Let's concentrate on the election that is in 4 weeks instead of the one that is in two years!
I'm going with Rudy. I know he's not a social conservative, but there are bigger issues out there besides gay marriage and abortion. Islamic terrorists for instance. If nukes or dirty bombs go off in our major cities, all other issues quickly will become irrelevant.
McCain will not survive the primary process. The base hates him.
except that McCain is very popularin Michigan
I predict if the dems win congress the GOP nominee will be Guliani, Romney or a sitting/former gov....it wont be a member of the Senate or House.
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