Posted on 10/05/2006 1:41:42 PM PDT by Drew McKissick
At this point, the pending 2008 Republican nomination contest looks like it will eventually be a battle between two candidates: John McCain and the “anti-McCain”.
To some degree, McCain still has some work to do in locking up his end of the party, such as it is. He’s still being stalked by Rudi Giuliani, who keeps popping up right along with McCain at or near the top of early GOP horse race polls. The problem for McCain is that they both seem to be fishing in the same pond, so he will have to nail down his left flank before he can look to his right, which is where the vast majority of Republican primary voters are. But given that, it’s a virtual certainty – as sure as his ego is large – that McCain will be one of two serious contenders left standing by the time the primaries and caucuses are in full swing.
The real contest will be the “anti-McCain” primary – the preliminary battle among conservative candidates to convince the party base that they can 1) beat McCain and 2) beat the Democrats in the general election.
The list of candidates in the anti-McCain primary is large and growing. There’s Virginia Senator George Allen, (who must first win re-election this fall), Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, (who currently chairs the Republican Governor’s Association), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, (who would certainly make any debate more interesting), New York Governor George Pataki, Congressman Mike Pence and Congressman Tom Tancredo, (of anti-amnesty fame), just to name a few.
That list is no doubt overly exhaustive, and the mere march of time as well as pending events will trim it considerably.
For example, the South Carolina Republican Party will host the first nationally televised GOP presidential candidate’s debate in May of 2007, just five days prior to its state convention which will feature a presidential straw poll of the delegates. This will provide an early glimpse of candidate strength with a representative sample of the party base, and the people most likely to do the work in the coming campaigns. The Iowa GOP and a few other states will likely follow suite with other straw polls later in the year.
Then there’s the contest for staff, and there are only so many good local operatives in early primary and caucus states to go around. Some hires are already being made, but this will pick up in earnest when the 2006 elections are over next month, as the candidates will officially “come out of the closet”. For now, most people are being less anxious than the candidates as they try to evaluate who has the best chance of becoming the “anti-McCain” alternative.
Lastly, there’s the money primary. In short, given a frontloaded calendar with so many early caucuses and primaries, any candidate who hasn’t been able to raise about twenty million or so by Christmas of 2007 is probably wasting their time and will begin to hemorrhage support. Those that have money towards the fall will begin to attract still more money and volunteer support like a magnet.
Given these realities, who is the likely anti-McCain winner? Early money would be put on Allen (assuming he wins re-election) and Romney. Both can raise money, have large networks and appeal to the base on the issues. Not to say someone else wouldn’t sneak in, but it would be difficult.
Allen’s a solid conservative, with a record that’s acceptable to pretty much any element of the party. He’s a popular former governor, with a large network of support including other governors. Recently, former Bush advisor and national Republican Chairman Ed Gillespie signed on as Allen’s finance chairman for his political action committee, (the precursor to any presidential bid).
Romney also has good national connections and fundraising ability as well, in addition to good positioning on the issues. And yes, he’s Mormon, but there are questions as to whether it is actually proving to be the negative many pundits suggested it would only months ago. And don’t underestimate what some Republicans would overlook in exchange for beating McCain.
So how does it all play out? Despite continued references to Republican’s historical deference to candidates whose “turn” it is, McCain will not have an easy time. Any such benefit he may receive is offset by his repeated offenses against the party base on issues like campaign finance reform, judicial nominees, immigration, the Federal Marriage Amendment and, most recently, treatment of terrorist detainees. Not to mention his record of less than flattering statements regarding some conservatives.
From a tactical standpoint, he’ll find the state primary landscape more difficult this time, as some state GOP organizations, such as Michigan and South Carolina, are moving to keep Democrats from voting in their primaries. This would be unlike in 2000 when McCain benefited greatly from crossover voting.
A successful anti-McCain candidate will unify the social, religious and fiscal conservative elements of the party. And the quicker one of them stands alone against McCain, the better off they will be.
Pretty sure she was signed off as already being thoroughly deloused after 8 years. And Bill can blubber to the world about how sorry we are about those Iranian Nuke facilities but, heck guffaw snort, it had to be done.
It's a done deal. Might as well start getting used to it.
Exactly, if the GOP wants to win it will be a:
1. Governor of a medium to large state.
2. ex-Governor of a medium to large state.
3. 1 and 2 usually end the list but for a number of reason including the population of the area he was executvie of Rudy. [NYC would fall 12th on the list of states by population just above Va, I believe.]
US Senators who are today older than the oldest president ever elected, Reagan, is unlikely to get the nomination in 2008. Reagan took office at age 69 and about 300 days. Two months ago McCain turned 70.
I would also scratch from the list northeastern GOP governors who are too moderate. That leaves me with a list that looks something like:
Romney [from the northeast but not too moderate]
Thompson [ex-govenor of Wisconsin]
Jeb Bush [I know he says he is not running.]
Owens [But CO is getting down towards a small state]
Pawlenty
I really think a GOP govenor from the midwest would be nice. Too bad Taft was such a disaster.
I think many of us Republicans are rather PO'ed at the current Republicans in office. They have not championed those things we stand for and they can't get anything passed even though they control both houses. To me, this means that those of us with core beliefs want someone who is familiar with "the ropes" in Washington, but is not presently part of the establishment. I think that's why Newt and Rudi have a real shot at it. McCain is just too far to the left for some of us.
McCain is popular in the media, too. However, he will not be elected without the South and Midwest. Conservatives in those regions detest him.
after this fiasco there can be no doubt that we have to have a strong social conservative in 2008.
Poll after poll it's Rudy's to lose.
On the dim side it's her thighness. She doubles Gore.
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/CP061003.htm
I feel safe in my prediction that Mark Foley will not be running.
You don't run rookies for president if you want to win. She has never even run any campaign for office that I know of?
If you do not have solid medium to big state winning campaign experience, you do not belong running for president. I know Ike was an exception but the Dims were dim enough to keep running a sitting Senator against him and Ike came from the US Army that was not carping at him like the US Department of State which would cut her up with 1000 leaks were Rice to run.
It'll be Billary v whoever we come up with. Wendell Wilkie, whomever. They'll be trounced. Because they are a riskier proposition than Billary at this point. Makes me sick to write this but my tagline demands.
1976: Ford (despite Reagan scare)
1980: Reagan (despite Bush I scare)
1988: Bush I
1992: Bush I (despite Buchanan scare)
1996: Dole
2000: Bush II (despite McCain scare)
I trust the base isn't stupid enough to forget how many times McCain has betrayed conservatives, however.
I dont know. Huckabee has been getting good receptions and review.
Allen is damaged goods now and his miscues have I think some people worried how he would conduct a Nationwide campaign(HE will be reelected Senator so far)
I think Pataki will do well among a certain segment but will not get far.
In myu view nesides McCain it is between ROmney and Huckabee. Romney's will be hurt big time I suspect on his position on guns. THe NRA vote will be huge. They will feel more comfortable with Huckabee. I think HUckabee will trounce Romney in the Southern primaries
Check your calendar. It is October 2006. It is not time to run for President yet. Just because Hillary! has been running since 1993 and McCain has been running since he was in High School does not mean that all candidates should follow this model.
When it comes time for serious candidates to announce their intentions, we shall see.
Whaddya think? Does he declare his intent to run? Does he run? Will there be support?
The serious contender and Republican Candidate will come from a Democratic Red State with hopes of pulling either New England in tow or some other hottly contested "safe democrat" state making the democrats have to defend their Turf.... If they lose just one RED state or even 20-electoral votes they are finished at 7 p.m. on the night of the election. Wouldn't if be nice to know the Left Coast voters wouldn't even have a chance to make the socialists' contenders:)
--South Carolina Republican Party will host the first nationally televised GOP presidential candidate’s debate in May of 2007--
Gov. Mark Sanford, Dark Horse.
UH HUM!
You forgot us westcoast republicans!(I Hope)
I agree, besides she would not carry on more black votes.
Does Tancredo have a chance?
I just want to see a "Tom and Huck" ticket.
A homo friendly GOP candidate is not going to be in the cards for 2008...
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