Posted on 10/04/2006 8:38:03 PM PDT by okstate
It's a competitive race for Connecticut's 5th Congressional District. Or is it? U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson is facing her toughest re-election battle in a decade. Or is she?
It depends on whose poll you read.
A poll commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee shows Johnson leading Democrat Chris Murphy by 10 points. A separate poll commissioned by Murphy's campaign says the race is a dead heat.
Both polls, however, show Murphy, a state senator from Cheshire, closing the gap.
In lieu of independent surveys on the race, both candidates claim momentum and are raising their rhetoric going into Nov. 7 for the U.S. House seat that includes all of the Danbury area, Waterbury and New Britain.
The polling firm American Viewpoint conducted the Republican-commissioned poll on Oct. 1 and 2 that showed Johnson with a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Murphy. This poll was made available to The News-Times one day before its public release.
The poll was taken of 400 likely voters, with 26 percent registered Republicans, 30 percent Democrats, and 42 percent unaffiliated, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
The good news for Murphy is that even the Republican-sponsored polls show him gaining ground. The GOP poll released Sept. 22 showed Murphy trailing Johnson 50 percent to 36 percent.
Murphy's poll, conducted by the firm Westhill Consulting, showed Johnson leading 41 percent to 40 percent. However, the poll said, 2 percent of undecided voters say they are leaning toward voting for Murphy and 1 percent say they are leaning toward Johnson.
Thus, the Murphy poll said, the "net" support for both candidates is tied at 42 percent.
The same firm's poll in June showed Murphy lagging nine points behind Johnson.
The Murphy poll had a sampling of 500 registered voters, with a margin of error of 4.4 percent and was taken from Sept. 25 to 27.
The campaign pays the firm for honest information to form a better strategy, Murphy said.
"We have no motivation to manipulate these polls," Murphy said. "It's neck-and-neck despite all of the negative ads she's running,"
The GOP poll's number are consistent with what Johnson is hearing as she travels the district, said Johnson campaign spokesman Brian Schubert.
"Voters are increasingly turned off by Murphy's negative attacks," Schubert said. "He doesn't even lead in his own polls."
Schubert said American Viewpoint is a reputable polling firm, and that he doesn't trust the Murphy poll.
"Democrats historically put out bogus polls. ."‰."‰. Is this the same pollster that had Jim Maloney up by 15 percent in 2002?" Schubert said.
In 2002, U.S. Rep. James Maloney's campaign released a poll that said he would beat Johnson in the battle of incumbents created by redistricting. Johnson won the race by 10 points.
Both polls are partisan and shouldn't be trusted, said Ken Dautrich, political science professor at the University of Connecticut.
"It's really surprising that Johnson would do better in a Republican poll and Murphy would do better in a Democratic poll," Dautrich said sarcastically. "You can't trust any of them."
Candidates release polls to project a favorable public opinion about themselves, Dautrich said. But the polls and the rhetoric of the campaign show the race is competitive.
"I don't think you can draw a conclusion from either poll," Dautrich said, adding that both national parties are targeting this race. "What this does indicate is that both parties think this race is winnable, and that suggests that internal polls say the race is very close."
Westhill Consulting (D) poll for Murphy's campaign
Nancy Johnson 42
Chris Murphy 42
500 registered voters, MOE +/- 4.4 percent, Sept 25-27
So its probably like 47%-42% Johnson leading.
Murphy's a strong challenger and this is a tough year. But people do love them their NanJo.
Sheesh, that sounds familiar. Almost the same numbers exactly for Simmons/Courtney.
I am not worried about Johnson. If she loses, we are going to lose 40 seats.
I think.
See ya.
Johnson goes through this every election cycle, and always wins. She may lose someday - but I don't think it's this time.
I love the NYT spin here:
She goes from 50-36 up to 52-42 up and that is somehow bad news for Johnson..... Undecideds breaking 2:1 for the challenger is about right but it puts Johnson well above 50%
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