Ping - Mason-Dixon Senate polls in TN, OH, MT. Tester's winning, DeWine's down, and Corker and Ford are nearly tied (Ford leads by one)
Yet more registered-voter polls.
This poll confirms that 50% of our fellow Americans are retarded.
Why don't you adopt Dewine for your state of Oklahoma? He represents my state now, not yours, and I want him gone. Some say Sherrod Brown is a far-left liberal. I say Dewine is a far-left rino.
Wrong!
Black Democrats always poll much better than their actual numbers. People give the PC response to the pollster. This has been proven in election after election since at least the early 1980s.
Dewine will win as he is making up the ground and has the momentum going on.
Burns needs to run hard and hit on Testers support for repealing the patriot act.
As for Corker, I am not sure why he is trailing, he should winning the election in a cakewalk. I suspect he has a piss poor team with poor ads, he should hitting hard on Fords actual Liberal voting record in Congress which is not a very tough thing to do!
Corker will win. I dunno about dewine or burns.
Why didn't Denny Rehberg run for Burns' spot? I remember seeing Burns at the first Bush inaugural. He was a drunk mess and an embarrassment.
Unfortunate name, sounds like Porker.
That's okay .. let DeWine sweat a little .. maybe he'll listen to more conservatives now, instead of the liberals in congress.
This shows the surge is still moving forward. ford will not beat Corker, Burns is improving and Dewine is closer than he has been.
All coming together as the slimy pollsters start to adjust their polls to get in line with reality for election day so they can claim to be "accurate."
These results are essentially what I expected. If anything, it answers the question why the GOP has been throwing significant money at MO, OH and TN of late.
What I see right now is a first-tier of Dem pickups being PA and MT, where the Dem candidates hold fairly solid leads outside MOE. The second-tier is OH, MO and TN, RI should probably be there as well, but RI polling is total garbage, so I'm never quite sure. These are toss-ups all told. VA then follows and AZ and NV are probably mostly off the radar.
FYI, the MSNBC/McClaskey poll on Virginia doesn't look like a typical Mason-Dixon poll for a number of reasons.
First, the poll has too many generic questions about Bush and Congress and not specific questions concerning the candidates. Second, the poll was conducted over five days, not over three. Also, the results of that Virginia poll are still not linked to on their website, btw, either, which they always do for their results.
This leads me to think the questions were created by MSNBC/McClaskey and that M-D just conducted the surveys. Compare the Virginia (MSNBC) poll with the Tennessee one just released.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/
http://www.tfponline.com/MEDIA/PDF/CorkerFordPoll.pdf
If Corker (Tennessee) does not wise up and move away from looking like he is still tied to his momma's apron strings, he is going to get beat by a member of one of the most corrupt families in Tennessee history. In almost every commercial, Corker comes across as still having to consult his momma on every issue (where is his WIFE?), as a slightly bored rich ivy-league college boy harping on illegal immigration (which Ford is beating him on the head about on account of his own unanswered illegal immigrant work site problems which he seems oblivious to and hesitant to answer). Ford is creaming him with his cheap hit-piece commercials, but Corker trudges on determinedly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with his endless "tributes to momma" and hypocritical sounding illegal immigration commercials. A lot of Ford's mud is sticking, and if Corker continues to ignore it (as Republicans tend to do), he is going to need to prepare a concession speech for election night.
Corker's momma seems like a real nice lady, but is time for him to either put up or shut up and decide whether or not he really wants to win.
Honestly the last time I can remember a Senate incumbent behind in all the polling only to win on election day was Bob Smith from NH in 1996.
The polls showing GOP candidates behind in:
RI
PA
OH
MO
MT
mean these candidates will lose. Only MO might be a surprise.
Polls are not usually off by that much. In the final month of the 2004 election Bush was never over 50 but he never trailed Kerry either. He was consistently ahead by 1-3 points. I do believe Dick Morris' claim that Undecided either dont vote or they break slightly towards the incumbent. The theory of undecided breaking towards the challenger hasnt happened since the 1990s
3 out of four of those senate races are within the margin of error and I wouldn't worry too much. Election is 6 weeks away and a lot can happen until then.
Republicans need to come out in record numbers and those seats can remain in Republican camp.
Turnout is key.