Ping - Mason-Dixon Senate polls in TN, OH, MT. Tester's winning, DeWine's down, and Corker and Ford are nearly tied (Ford leads by one)
M_D got many outcomes wrong in the last election and I would be suspect of these numbers. Incumbents can make up many points in the last weeks of an election - sorry to say that even a Murtha is likely to win re-election. I'll take Talent, Allen, DeWine, Santorum and Coker in the pool.
First, we are on the defensive this year. In a normal year, we wouldn't be talking about keeping our majority, but of expanding it.
Second, of these three states, I feel very good about TN, good about OH and hopeful about MT.
TN - The Democrat is 1 point ahead, but is in the low 40s. With a decent campaign by Corker, the Republicans of this state will come home to Corker.
OH - DeWine is two points down. The state is slightly Republican, but our guy is tainted by the curroption of Ney and Taft. In the end, I think the people of the state will figure out guilt by association is not reason enough to vote for the Democrat.
MT - This one is going to be tougher. Burns is not only behind by a half dozen points or so, his approval rating is in the low 40s. He has some direct connections with Abramoff. The state is not as Republican as its vote in the President might indicate (it has a Democrat Senator, a Democrat Governor, a Democrat state Senate and an exactly split state House). The one good thing Burns has going for him is that the Democrats nominated a tree-hugging left-wing wacko.
As of now, I am thinking that MT and PA are possible pick-ups for the other side, and NJ and RI are toss-ups.
PS In my congressional district, the Democrats are running against the "do nothing Congress," and not against the incumbent Republican Congressman. This is understandable because hardly anybody in the country has a good opinion abaout the Congress. But, as to why the Congress is performing badly is another thing. The majority of the people of this district can be persuaded that putting another left-wing Democrat into the Congress will mess things up more.
And, in neighboring Maryland, the Democrats are running against George W. Bush for Governor. It is understandable that they would want to do this, since the state is tilted Democrat. But, it will be easy for Governor Erlich to point out they are running against President Bush because and not him, because he has done a good job.
Conrad Burns is a goner.
I'm less worried abotu George Allen & Bob Corker. There is an undercurrent of negativity against Ford's family that voters aren't telling pollsters. And as for Allen, this poll was taken before it was learned that Jim Webb had gone into black neighborhoods and pointed fake guns at the residents while he was in the ROTC.