Posted on 09/29/2006 3:27:53 PM PDT by okstate
Northup (R) 50%
Yarmuth (D) 44%
Mancini (L) 2%
Parker (C) 1%
Undecided 3%
529 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.3%
Just keep her from emailing her pages and she'll be fine.
Northup leads by six in Kentucky's 3rd CD
And, if my theory is right that ALL the polls are vastly undercounting GOP, she's beyond safe . . . and this was supposed to be a "vulnerable" seat. So, lessee, Shaw is safe, Gerlach is safe, Hayworth is safe. Increasingly, except for a couple of IN seats and the 'WILD CARD' seats of DeLay and now Foley, all of the once-vulnerable seats for the GOP look pretty good. Course, no one ever, EVER, seems to poll vulnerable Dem seats.
I agree about Hayworth being safe. Shaw is in a similar situation to Northup, his seat leans GOP.
But calling Gerlach "safe" is just ridiculous. If you honestly believe that I have nothing to say to you... that would indicate a COMPLETE disconnection from reality on your part.
And as for no one polling vulnerable Dem seats, actually today Survey USA polled Strickland's open seat, which has been considered one of the top 10 or 15 Republican targets. I posted that poll; the Rat is up 12 or 13 if I remember right. The simple fact is that there at least 30 or 40 GOP seats that are as vulnerable as the 10 or 15 most vulnerable Dem seats this year.
Gerlach will win in a walk.
Her colleagues across the river in Indiana (Sodrel and Hostettler) are in much tougher races. I think Hostettler finds a way to squeak out a win, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Sodrel's seat go back to Baron Hill.
Wow, you post even more of these than I do.
I'm not worried about Anne Northup, she always pulls it out and her opponent is too liberal.
Sodrel and Chocoba (Chocobo?) are the most vulnerable guys out there, now, except for Foley's and DeLay's seats.
Her last one was her easiest - she got 60% of the vote.
If we lose all three seats, the RATs may be on their way to a blowout. If we hold all three, it should bode very well for us.
Northup and Davis's races in Kentucky are two other early ones that I will be watching closely on election night.
And Nancy Johnston and Chris Shays. If we win all seven of those seats, we'll probably gain about 5. If we lose all seven, we'll lose 30.
LS
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