Posted on 09/28/2006 6:09:24 PM PDT by okstate
Pawlenty, Hatch Tied in MN :
In an election for Governor of Minnesota today, 9/28/06, Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty and DFL challenger Mike Hatch tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth. 40 days to the 11/7/06 election, it's Pawlenty 45%, Hatch 44%. Other candidates get 9% of the vote.
Pawlenty leads by 16 points among men and trails by 12 points among women, a 28-point "gender gap."
Republicans pick Pawlenty 15:1. Democrats pick Hatch 8:1. Independents prefer Hatch by 4 points. The most affluent voters pick Pawlenty by 14 points.
The least affluent pick Hatch by 18 points. Middle-income voters are split.
Pawlenty wins among voters under age 50. Hatch wins among older voters.
Pawlenty does best in Southern MN. Hatch does best in Northeast MN.
Pawlenty was first elected Governor in 2002. Hatch is Minnesota's Attorney General.
Klobuchar Holds MN Seat in U.S. Senate For Democrats:
In an election for for United States Senator in Minnesota today, 9/28/06, DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican Mark Kennedy, 51% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth.
Klobuchar wins by 27 points among women but loses by 11 points among men. a 38-point "gender gap."
90% of Democrats vote for Klobuchar. 90% of Republicans vote for Kennedy. Independents favor Klobuchar, 54% to 32%.
Kennedy leads by 13 points among voters under age 35. Klobuchar leads 2:1 among seniors.
Incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton is not running for re-election. Kennedy currently represents Minnesota's 6th district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Filtering: 1,000 Minnesota adults were interviewed 9/25/06 - 9/27/06. Of them, 831 were registered to vote. Of them, 616 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
Mason-Dixon had Klobuchar up 15 2 days ago. This poll is also better for us compared to the last U. of Minn. poll and the last Star-Tribune poll (duh). It's almost identical to Rasmussen's last poll here taken at the end of August and close to a Gallup result in August, too.
Meanwhile, Pawlenty led by 14 in the last Survey USA poll and leads by only one now. The Star-Trib had him tied with Hatch. University of Minnesota had Hatch up 2, and Mason-Dixon had Pawlenty up 3. The Governor's race will be razor-thin and Pawlenty's July and August advantage has disappeared.
Kennedy still has a decent chance for the Senate seat. His prospects look a lot better now having factored this poll into the mix.
Decent news for Kennedy, but I can't see him winning this seat.
Still, this is a much more believable deficit (8%) than the Star-Tribune poll, which I believe had Klobuchar up 87%.
I believe the gentleman's figgers may be inackerate
I just knew someone at the Star-Trib office screwed up again when the candidates' percentages added up to 174 . . . .
Pawlenty's a dark horse for 2008.
Gut instinct tells me that the numbers quoted above are about accurate, though there are some anomalies I don't understand. Kennedy leads among those under 35? -- Interesting. Pawlenty leads among Republicans 15:1? A surprising ratio since he's governed the last two years like a Democrat. Hatch is such an unlikable S.O.B., however, that I doubt this race will be as close as the current numbers indicate.
Its possible that the good Kennedy is leading with the youth. Traditionally, MN was dominated by FDR lovers. With these FDR voters slowingly disappearing, the youth are becoming more flexible in their voting habits. Jesse Ventura's main contribution as Governor was shaking up the partisan voting habits of MN. Ventura caused the children of FDR lovers to rethink their partisan upbringing.
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