Posted on 09/28/2006 1:22:34 PM PDT by okstate
Republican Reynolds Faces Strong Challenge in NY26 Rematch:
In an election in New York's 26th Congressional District today, 9/28/06, Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds and Democratic challenger Jack Davis are in a fierce fight, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo. 40 days to the 11/7/06 election, Reynolds gets 45%. Davis gets 43%. Green Party candidate Christine Murphy gets 8%.
This contest is a rematch of the 2004 election, when Reynolds, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, defeated Davis 56% to 44%. Reynolds gets 62% of Republican votes. Davis gets 64% of Democrat votes. 31% of Republicans, and 24% of Democrats, cross over to vote for the other party's candidate. Independents favor Davis by 12 points, but Green Party candidate Murphy gets 20% of the Independent vote.
Reynolds wins by 18 points among voters with household income under $40K. Davis leads by 5 points among voters with household income over $80K. Middle-income voters are evenly divided.
Filtering: 900 Registered Voters from New York's 26th Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 9/25/06 - 9/27/06. Of them, 491 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
Caution: On 9/26/06, while interviewing was being conducted for this poll, the Green Party candidacy of Christine Murphy was ruled invalid by the New York State Board of Elections. Therefore, the results of this poll may NOT be interpreted as a projection of the results in the 11/7/06 election. They represent the voters' preferences at the time the poll was taken.
SurveyUSA makes no forecast regarding the impact of Murphy's disqualification on the outcome of the contest. Future SurveyUSA polling for this contest will not offer Murphy as a ballot choice.
3. The GOP candidate for Attorney General is experiencing a highly-publicized Federal criminal probe. On the other hand, the Democratic comptroller candidate has been caught using State funds for driving his wife around. That's not been getting much airplay or print.
This race has been brutal both on the streets and in the media. I have talked to many people and they are pissed at Reynolds. Most people here could care less about control in DC. They are worried about NY.. The R's in NY& have screwed us for years and they are taking it out on Reynolds.
I fear this may go to Davis... Reynolds team doesn't seem to want to take the advice I have offered. If they blow it they have no one else to blame but the image in the mirror.
I am in a fight of my own against the local R's and the Dems that are killing us.
This stuff was going on here are FR before the recent upsurge in GOP polling results. The first attack was via immigration, but that 15 mins has expired.
The truth is these threads inspire Freepers to send money to vulnerable districts and volunteer their time to GOP candidates there. So no point discouraging them. Best the threads exist because Freepers eventually arrive at this post and see this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1631282/posts?page=15
Note down around post 50 of that link for better refinements of districts where you can help.
Again, thank you to the OP for leading Freepers to this information so they can contribute money and time towards the most conservative, viable candidate in each race.
I didn't even see your post till after I responded. Look above.
I should be seeing Tom in the next couple days. This race is gonna get nastier than it already is.
Who won this district in '04? If it is yet another Bush district that for some reason is not solidly for the GOP incumbent in Congress then that is bad news.
Speaking of coattails, that phenomenon hasn't been in play much in CT in the last decade or so. But this poll with Gov Rell ahead by a whopping 33 points is very good news. It might not have a huge impact on struggling GOP Reps. Shays, Simmons, and Johnson, but it can't hurt either.
Why was 17 removed? I wanted to find out the poster's source for the Kellum information....
Apparently Brooksy was a newbie troll who signed up today.
Here is the info on Thelma Drake's opponent.
http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2006/dem_trying_to_smack_down_thelma_drake_hits_girls#comment
PING to NY26 Survey USA poll with Reynolds up only 2
This is disturbing. Reynolds' opponent has spent a helluva lot of his own money on this race.
I don't think that this race is as close as it's portrayed here, but it is in play.
Posting polls showing competitive races are warnings of the need for grass roots politicking and active campaigning, not defeatism.
Thanks. A local Hampton Roads blog (Bearing Drift) put it up as well, and I guess it made the news down there today.
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