Posted on 09/27/2006 2:49:00 AM PDT by The Raven
On a day when much of the capital's attention was focused on leaked excerpts of an intelligence estimate report that suggested the Iraq war was creating more jihadists, the military quietly released an intercepted letter from Al Qaeda complaining that the terrorist organization was losing ground in Iraq.
The letter, found in the headquarters of Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, after he was killed on June 7, was sent to Zarqawi by a senior Al Qaeda leader who signs his name simply "Atiyah." He complains that Al Qaeda is weak both in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and in Iraq.
-snip-
(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...
They were talking on Fox and Friends about this earlier this morning
Did the Japanese make more enemies of Americans when the bombed Pearl Harbor? I ask this because it's silly to think that when one country attacks another or when a country that's been attacked reacts defensively, that this doesn't make more enemies then you had previously.
The letter, should have been sent to McCain instead of Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda could have asked for funding. John would want to make sure it's a fair fight.
At the tail end of the article the writer slips this in. This should have been front and center, in my opinion.
That's because al-Qa'ida is changing from a simple group into a global philosophy.
Small groups of individuals in areas with no history or links to terrorism can become radicalized with AQ inspired propaganda. They can go to jihadist websites and put together their own plots with their own resources. The term 'home grown terrorists' is a dismissive and naiive way of portraying what will be an increasingly commong threat. It's the jihadist equivalent of yelling "I am Sparticus"
Insofar as we defeat al-Qa'ida proper, that doesn't end the threat anymore. It's too late for that. The next generation al-Qa'idas are already in the incubator.
For example many in the US are still thinking in terms of "body counts" (the "Terrorst Magnet" theory).
In a war of this type, body counts are almost entirely irrelevant. The center of gravity in this kind of warfare isn't in units, manpower, or equipment. It's the social makeup of the Muslim communities themselves. As a U.S. doctor serving in the Korean war commented, on the Chinese, "The womb may yet prove to be the most effective weapon of all". So long as those communities are inclined to support extremism, or, more commonly, to not actively combat it, enemy reinforcements will never be far behind.
In this light, our position in Iraq appears particularly unfortunate.
It's unfortunate only in that we tried to use the military as a crutch, in light of a poor post-war political reconstruction effort. We are effectively invincible from a military standpoint, but unable to attain victory. That enduring stalemate provides ample propaganda to recruit new jihadists the world over.
And when we do the, Jihadists will take credit for our "expulsion", and many will believe them, further increasing their influence. (This is exactly what happened in Afghanistan - Al Qaeda played a very minor role in that conflict, but Al Qaeda successfully trafficked in inflated accounts of its importance in expelling the Russians for a decade thereafter.)
At this point, even if it ends in a draw, with both sides able to claim some sort of partial success, it will be a Phyrric victory. Al-Qa'ida may be broken in Afghanistan and Iraq, but a new generation of terrorists have cut their teeth on the U.S. military. The new jihadists will take home lessons that will be taught again, posted on the internet, and preached in mosques.
The idea of Arab resistance to foriegn aggression is a romantic one that sells very well in the Middle East. There doesn't have to be much tangible gain for the myths to be spread, and for Arabs to feel pride and motivation over it.
Meanwhile, we have 100,000 plus high-tech troops, at a cost of 30-50 billion dollars a year, fighting a shadowy enemy who is successfully attacking them with roadside bombs made for $10 or less from a salvaged artillery round.
Coming soon to a roadside near you. Iraq, if nothing else, has taught jihadists how easy and inexpensive it can be to fight us, even at our strongest.
Under these conditions from the Jihadist prespective – and more important to many in the Islamic world - our victories are the result of the criminal application of massive fire power – the frustrated lashings out of a wounded giant – while any Jihadist success against our troops is a valiant act of resistance successfully undertaken again enormous odd.
It's a romantic myth of battle and courage, but it's what they want to believe. Those tales inspire religious Muslims into radicalism, by playing upon their pride, sense of community, and religious faith. The mosques will radiate these myths into their members, and networks will form.
But as the situation has actually developed, whatever Al Qaeda’s role in Iraq at the end of our involvement in that sorry country, in the battle with “Islamic Terrorism” writ large we are almost certainly going to “lose” in Iraq.
Victory is not yet out of our grasp, but, unless we really get our act together and turn Iraq around, the jihadists will also walk away with considerable winnings. Those spoils many not be much more than experience, credibility, and terrorist contacts, but it'll be enough to nurture a global jihad still in it's infancy.
I don't think that current leadership of either party can admit this, or formulate realistic plans to extract us from this mess - their reputations are on the line, and it's just to tempting to "kick the can down the road" and hope the next guy will take the blame.
We're going to be in this war for decades.
But in the meantime, we can continue to educate ourselves about the history, aims, and strengths and weaknesses of the Radical Islamic movements that have turned to terrorism and how they relate to the broader course of Islamic thought (and I'll say it again "The Looming Tower" is a good place to start).
The best chance we have of winning is in understanding the problem, and I completely agree with you there. Informed debate and clear thinking is the only way out of this maze. That said, prepare to be flamed, and flamed hard, for seeking answers outside of the party line.
No serious analysts thought it was fake. At least, none that knew where we got it. Some scholarly types who call themselves 'intelligence analysts', perhaps, but that would be all.
AQI media simply denies anything that sounds negative; they're not interested in the truth, or held accountable by their constituency for it.
In conventional warfare, advantageous terrain is considered to be high ground, choke points, and otherwise important terrain. In the GWOT, the mosques and Islamic communities themselvs are the hills and bridges.
Firepower won't change that. In fact, too much force plays into the hands of our enemies. The teachings of Islam by themselves are pretty harsh, and will always generate some real crackpots like bin Laden. Wen whipped up into a frenzy over things like the long Iraqi occupation, large numbers of Muslims can be easily pushed into militancy.
The left and appeasers never get serious. Ordinary realists have always been the ones to have to face the guns of tyrants after the left and appeasers sit by and watch and try endless "diplomacy" while the tyrants advance. . then, after enough people die, ordinary realists have to take the wheel and the great unwashed realists have to shoulder the burden - while narcissists like Clinton dodge the draft and plan their own personal advancement . . that is what the burden is about . . "The Task and the Burden" as so well described by Marjorie Noon in her book written 50 yrs. ago.
A 60-ton ice-cream truck with a 120mm Rheinmetall cannon.
Come and get it, kids.
I don't know... is there still a "party line"?
There is an administration position, "stay the course", and there are various positions on the alternatives, but the sense I get is that increasingly people have a desire for some realistic, straight talk about viable alternatives to just sitting there, taking casualties, and waiting for the various factions in Iraq to somehow resolve their political problems. And it seems to me that more and more people would settle for de facto partition (“Those are just the facts on the ground”), or total chaos or a functioning coalition government composed of members willing to agreed to disagree long enough to ask us to leave (“You can’t save people from themselves”) or a more pressing crisis that required out troops elsewhere (if we discovered that North Korea was selling nuclear weapons to terrorists, would anyone care much what happened once they left Iraq if our troops there were needed in NK to deal with an imminent threat to the mainland US?) – that is for just about any resolution that gave us a face-saving way out, petty much irrespective of what we left behind.
Meanwhile, though we don’t know what’s next, it’s not clear to me that a “party line” is left to follow which can unite people either here or elsewhere as we search for a “next step”.
And it’s in this light that IMO you have to look (for example) at the various geopolitical arguments often made by those who consider themselves pragmatic supporters of a continued occupation - the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” and “access to oil” arguments and so on – unless we find leadership better able to unite the country behind the means to such ends, they are fantasy.
That's how Tony Snow sees it and said it just now in his presser. Words to the effect "It was reported as a deal with the Taliban. In fact, it was the opposite." I loathe the press...
Shhhh...
Just speculatin'. On reflection, I believe the MSM. The Talibunnies are safer than ever. ;^)
jihad bump
He complains that Al Qaeda is weak both in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and in Iraq.
Oh NO! More bad news for the deomcrats. When will it ever end?
Completely agree. When any country goes to war with an enemy, it's going to rally those on both sides. In the case of Iraq, it's a good thing that it's become a magnet for our enemies. It brings them out in the open where where it's easier to target them.
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