Posted on 09/26/2006 12:25:22 PM PDT by okstate
Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. has regained his momentum in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race and now leads incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 51 - 39 percent among likely voters, with 4 percent for Green party candidate Carl Romanelli and 5 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 - 42 percent likely voter lead for Casey in an August 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Republicans back Sen. Santorum 77 - 17 percent, while Democrats back Casey 85 - 8 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 56 - 31 percent. In this survey, 17 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.
Among likely voters who back Casey, 55 percent say their vote is mainly against Santorum, while 40 percent say their vote is mainly for the Democrat.
"Sen. Rick Santorum's comeback momentum has been stopped dead in the water. Santorum's attack ads against Casey have failed to spark voters' support, and 50 percent of voters say the Senator does not deserve re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Casey, just like his father, is attracting a significant number of Republican votes - perhaps enough to make it hard for Santorum to make it back to Washington."
Among Santorum supporters, 26 percent cite his experience as the main reason they are voting for him, with only 11 percent citing his support for the war in Iraq and 26 percent saying his stand on other issues is key to their support.
Among Casey backers, 40 percent say the main reason they back him is because "it's just time for a change," with only 11 percent citing his opposition to the war in Iraq.
Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a negative 35 - 40 percent favorability rating, with 16 percent mixed and 8 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Casey gets a 39 - 18 percent favorability among likely voters, with 26 percent mixed and 16 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"The significant thing in this poll is that Casey's favorability rating is increasing as more voters get to know him," Richards said. President's Approval
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 59 - 38 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing overall.
Voters say 48 - 32 percent that the U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, but say 43 - 37 percent that the U.S. is winning the war on worldwide terrorism.
"As long as President Bush's approval rating remains under 40 percent in Pennsylvania, he will continue to be a drag on Sen. Rick Santorum's re-election bid and will be of no help to GOP gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann," Richards said.
From September 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 933 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
PA Trendlines:
09-26 Quinnipiac .................................. Casey +14
09-24 Temple ....................................... Casey +10
09-20 Rasmussen .................................. Casey +10
09-19 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) .... Casey +14
09-18 Princeton Research Associates .... Casey +21
09-18 Franklin and Marshall College ..... Casey +7
Santorum's best hope at this point is if Casey agrees to more debates.. If Santorum can get his message out there while simultaneously exposing Casey as an empty suit he has a decent chance still, but if there are no more debates I think Casey has it won.
Regionally Casey wins by 30 in Alleghany, by 56 percent in Philly, by 14 percent in the northeast, by 10 in the southeast and by 10 in the southwest. They are tied in the northwest and Santorum leads by 6 in central PA.
This is a crime. The people of Pennsylvania considering voting for this empty suit Casey are beyond stupid. Another Northeastern state we need to give to Canada.
We just need to loose Phithadelphia............
What's wrong with Pennsylvania?
Really...what IS wrong with Pennsy?
Why are their politics so liberal? There shouldn't be that much unionism, lawyerism, free loaderism...what kinds of isms are they infected with?
I don't believe the poll, and think that Santorum will win. Santorum's TV ads are far superior to Caseys, and Casey has a long history of fizzing out at the end.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH PA?
Good question, is there something I am missing about Santorum?
So liberal? LOL. We may vote for Rat presidents and an occasional Rat senator but take a peek at the state's record, at least.
Casey's riding on daddy's name and image and people in PA are buying it. Santorum's ads are good but he needs to focus more on his record instead of running "Casey Contributer #4040" stories. I thought I saw a poll the other week that said this race was within a few points?
They had Golisano winning an election he lost by double digits in NY
Consider that 125% of the voters in the inner city districts cast their ballots for dems.
Heh..I'll be glad to do just that but why don't you just give me your take.
I'll be glad, even ecstatic, to retract my statement if you can show to the contrary.
What is wrong with people? How can people vote for Democrats after all they have done? I'm getting depressed about this election.
We're practically the worst of the worst.
I recall that the Philly turn-out was something like 110% of registered voters... Did anyone ever investigate that or get to the bottom of that "problem"?
I have to agree with you. Is there any database that shows the actual vote as compared to the pre-election polls? Would be interesting to see the results.
Nothing, if you live in the country, like I do.
However, the cities are like most others in America.
Full of 'victims' and 'enablers'.
I live right next toan election place,and on election day, I will be at the top of my driveway encouraging voters to reelect Santorum.
Undoubtedly run by RATs so it would be considered a "problem"!
You must know that every single inner city election process is controlled by demonrats. This explains their ranting and raving against the new machines.
There are too many people here who vote the way the union tells them (or told them, when they were a Union Man), or vote DemocRat because that's the way their parents voted when FDR saved them from the Depression.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.