Posted on 09/25/2006 12:30:20 PM PDT by okstate
LAS VEGAS (AP) - Republican incumbent Jon Porter had a 47 percent to 37 percent lead over Democratic challenger Tessa Hafen in the race for Nevada's 3rd Congressional District seat, according to a new statewide poll.
Meanwhile, the race for the House seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Gibbons remained too close to call Monday between Republican Secretary of State Dean Heller and Democratic university Regent Jill Derby.
Heller drew 45 percent support from the 400 registered voters interviewed, while Derby drew 42 percent.
The sampling error margin was plus or minus 5 percentage points, making the Heller-Derby race too close to declare a leader.
Porter's 10 percentage point lead over Hafen was at the edge of the statistical significance of the poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and KVBC-TV.
The telephone survey by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. found 13 percent of poll respondents undecided in the Porter-Hafen race. Independent American candidate Joshua Hansen drew 2 percent and Libertarian Joseph Sylvestri drew 1 percent.
Porter is seeking his third term in the 3rd District, which includes suburban Clark County and is evenly split between registered Democrats and registered Republicans.
Republicans hold a 48,000 voter registration advantage in the sprawling 2nd Congressional District, where 12 percent of respondents said they remained undecided between Heller, Derby and Independent American Party candidate James Krochus, who drew 1 percent.
The district covers most of Nevada except for urban portions of Clark County. No Democrat has won the seat since the district was formed in 1982.
A poll of 600 likely voters reported last week by the Reno Gazette-Journal and KRNV-TV showed Heller leading Derby, 45 percent to 37 percent, with 18 percent undecided. That poll had a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points - also putting the Heller-Derby race too close to call.
Gibbons is running for governor against Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus. The election is Nov. 7.
Hellers' district is by far the most GOP of the seats in Nevada. I can't figure out why he doesn't have more of a lead. He has strong name ID and money. I wonder if there are some disgruntled conservatives who aren't coming home after their candidate lost the primary.
Porter's district? 10 points is fine, I guess.
Anyone know where this district falls in the list of "vulnerables"?
This survey is totally worthless, just based on that single phrase.
How is 47 - 37 "edging"? Oh, wait. The Republican is in the lead...
Do you even understand what the term "margin of error" means? 400RV just gives a survey a higher MOE. Consider it within that range and the survey is just as valid as one that samples 1200LV.
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