Posted on 09/25/2006 11:34:45 AM PDT by okstate
It's set to be one of the most watched races in the November elections and it's rooted right here in Southern Arizona. It's a race guaranteed to capture the eyes of the nation.
News 4 has partnered with the Arizona Daily Star to conduct a tracking poll in which we asked likely voters a number of questions related to the Congressional District 8 race and the candidates.
600 likely voters in Arizona Congressional District 8 took part in a survey, which was conducted from September 16 - 19, 2006 by 1 to 1 Direct and Marketing Intelligence.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Giffords (D) 48%
Graf (R) 36%
Undecided 13%
Giffords' lead is outside of the margin of error; Graf would have to capture nearly all of the undecided vote to catch up.
(Excerpt) Read more at kvoa.com ...
Is that so. Is that what your bosses at the Daily Kos told you to say?
The problem is not the makeup of the district for Graf, it is the backstabbing of Huffman and Kolbe that is hurting his campaign. Kolbe might be getting a paycheck from the Giffords staff.
"Does not the party have to send its resources to races where the polling says the seat is in reach?"
Kolbe's hand selected liberal candidate (Huffman) spent millions trying to defeat Graf by assassinating his character. It was the repeated media blitz to falsely attack Graf that is hurting him now. Also Kolbe said he would not support Graf after he won the primary.
The party is not required to send money - however the RNCC did send money and backing to Kolbe's candidate.
This is what is hurting Graf - the GOP came out against him and now because he is a true conservative they refuse to back him.
Chafee, McCain and Spector would be very happy with your response. This is exactly how they think too. Destroy the true conservatives in the primary and then blame it on the conservatives for not polling higher in the general.
I'm sure you can back up that "millions" claim.
You are too hard on the Republicans.
His opponent in the primary called for all Republicans to back the winner, and many Republicans from around the state and nation are now backing Graf.
I am sorry that Kolbe is having a hissy fit, but I am hopeful he will come around (or else he risks becoming a persona non gratis among Republicans who have always treated him decently).
HERE's the problem: We are trying to not lose our majority by holding our losses to less than 15. This is going to mean focusing resources on the competitive races we have the best chances.
This district is only slightly Republican (judging by the Presidential vote in 2004). So, if it comes down to backing a Republican in a marginal district who is double digits behind, versus backing a Republican in a district that's more favorable to us, who is neck-and-neck or only single digits behind, well, you can do the math.
On the other hand, if Randy Graf and those supporting him can close the gap, which I think is feasible, then the reinforcements will be sent in (possibly by diverting money from other candidates who don't close the gap).
You and I agree. Make no mistake, Tucson and Pima County are left leaning. If you dont agree take a look at the make up of the city council and the pres race in 2004. In fact, if it wasnt for Pima County voting for Napalotono in 2002 we would have a Republican gov.
Graf can win this district but Kolbe is a disgusting loser, who has pulled all his favors to destroy Graf. This is a RINO that has done everything in his power to get the democrat elected and the GOP has shown their true colors by not supporting Graf - an honest and decent man.
You obviously dont know what your talking about and it is obvious that you dont live here. Huffman is known in circles around here as the "weasel". His single endorsement of Graf was nothing more than words. Kolbe's boy is a disgusting liar and attack man who couldnt hold Graf's shoes.
This isnt about Kolbe having a "hissy fit" - Kolbe has made every opportunity to attack Graf.
Your response says it all, "versus backing a Republican in a district that's more favorable to us,"
Elitism has caused many a conservative to question the republican parties affiliation to American values. Its all about keeping power - while Rome burns. I shouldnt havet to remind you that, Republicans who vote with democrats are no different than a democrat.
It was 19 last week, so, if this stuff is at all believed, it's been cut by more than 1/3 in a few days. What it means is that now that the GOP candidate is solidified, he'll start running ads and chomp into that lead.
You care not to support Republicans if they are not to your liking (you say they are no better than Democrats), but you are upset that Kolbe does not support a Republican that is not to his liking. I, contrariwise, hope that Kolbe will realize that, for the most part, we Republicans have treated him with respect, not because we liked him, but because of party loyalty.
Post a link to the poll showing Graf down 19 points last week please. I am not aware of any that showed that.
In fact two weeks ago this poll showed Giffords up only 10, so Graf has LOST two points in the last two weeks.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/house/az/arizona8-95.html
I don't slavishly report these like you do. There was one showing him down 19, so he has cut the lead by 1/3.
There is absolutely no record of any poll with Graf down 19 points in the last week.
Stop making things up.
There most certainly was.
The burden of proof is upon you, the one making the claim.
No, it's not, despite what you say. You're Mr. all polls. Find it. I saw it.
If he wasn't down 19 last week, he will be next week. The Dems have launched very well done negative ads that will destroy any chance for him to be elected.
It's from Giffords web site. It's a DNC poll released the same day the NRCC withdrew funding and Rahm the rumpranger Emmanuel slimed Graf saying he had the support of David Duke (D-Sheehanite).
Dont let the anklbiters get you down.
If they want to cite polls, then Graf's support has risen this week by 7 points if they want to look at the polls.
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