Giffords (D) leads Graf (R) in early polling (AZ-08, Giffords up 12)

KVOA TV ^ | 25 September 2006 | News 4 Tuscon

[okstate]

It's set to be one of the most watched races in the November elections and it's rooted right here in Southern Arizona. It's a race guaranteed to capture the eyes of the nation.

News 4 has partnered with the Arizona Daily Star to conduct a tracking poll in which we asked likely voters a number of questions related to the Congressional District 8 race and the candidates.

600 likely voters in Arizona Congressional District 8 took part in a survey, which was conducted from September 16 - 19, 2006 by 1 to 1 Direct and Marketing Intelligence.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Giffords (D) 48%
Graf (R) 36%
Undecided 13%

Giffords' lead is outside of the margin of error; Graf would have to capture nearly all of the undecided vote to catch up.

[okstate]

We can thank Jim Kolbe for losing this seat since he refused to support the nominee WE (well not me, i'm not from Arizona ha) elected in the primary (Graf)

[jveritas]

Is this a conservative or liberal leaning district? If Arizona is a border state where the illegal immigration issue is so important then why Graf is trailing by 12 points? Is Graf a Buchanan style conservative who cannot be elected? If so then the GOP was right in not supporting him.

[okstate]

AZ-08 is pretty moderate actually. Graf barely won the primary.

[PatriotCJC]

Very conservative. I can't believe this poll ????

[dfwgator]

Kolbe put his own sexuality ahead of Party and Country.

[Hans]

okstate. Your run is entirely a downer. I suggest you
find a republican who is doing well for your next posting.

[kesg]

Is this a conservative or liberal leaning district? If Arizona is a border state where the illegal immigration issue is so important then why Graf is trailing by 12 points? Is Graf a Buchanan style conservative who cannot be elected? If so then the GOP was right in not supporting him.

From what very little I know, he is a Buchananite wolf in GOP sheep's-clothing. This is normally a Republican leaning district. Of course, if the anti-immigration crowd is right, he should win in a landslide. Unfortunately, I know better.

[Welike ike]

Well the bright side is that we got rid of Log Cabin Kolbe. Now maybe we concentrate on getting a high profile Republican to take out Liberl Giffords in 2008 with McCain at the top of the ticket.

[Welike ike]

Hans, OK STATE is known to many on this board to be a "Seminar Democrat" just ignore him he is a troll who works for the DNC.

[Welike ike]

Trolling again OK State? Do you even know where Tucson is?
Of course because you work for Howard Dean in New York City.
TROLL

[jveritas]

If he is a Buchananite then it will be very hard to him to win even if the district is very conservative.

[John D]

Kolbe is such a whine baby. I do not know how many AZ freepers remember when he lost his first congressional race but I lived in the 5th CD (it was the 5th in 1982 not the 8th). I remember him complaining that the reason he lost was because of Ronald Reagan's economic policies. In 1984 while I could not vote for McNabb I would not vote for him. He won even without my vote though.

[okstate]

Your accusations are unfounded and ridiculous

[John D]

Is Green Valley still in Kolbe's district? If it is Graff should do well there. They usually turn out about 98% of the Republican vote.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

The district is in Southeastern Arizona. It includes Ft. Huachuca, where I lived for a couple of years. The district has a good mix of Hispanic and conservative voters, and should go GOP with the right candidate.

[kesg]

If he is a Buchananite then it will be very hard to him to win even if the district is very conservative.

Yes...unfortunately.

[kesg]

Uh, I meant that if he is a Buchananite, it is unfortunate that this guy won the primary.

[sasafras]

Ok let me set the record straight - since most if not all of the posters so far are outside of this district.

AZ-08 encompasses Tucson which, for the most part, votes democrat. In fact, the city council is all dem except for the mayor and he is a RINO. Tucson proper far outweighs any influence the surrounding cities might have. Places like Benson, Ft.Huachaca and Green Valley are extremely small and have virtually no impact on the outcome. Pima county (which includes Tucson) was only one of a few counties that actually ended up as blue (voted for John Kerry) in the 2004 pres race.

Graff is as conservative and principled as they come. He is being hurt by the GOP more than the democrats. Kolbe has worked with the GOP to assassinate his character. Graf has received little or no party funding because of his allegiance to true conservative values.

It is obvious that the GOP is nothing more than a sham - interested in keeping power instead of supporting the core conservative values that Reagan prescribed to. I will probably be changing my party affiliation after this race as I am so disgusted with the RINO party. What they, the GOP, have done to a good man like Graf is disgusting and reprehensible but also a sign of the true nature of the party elites.

[jveritas]

We are fortunate that the Republican party got ride of the Buchananite crazy fringe long time ago and that is why we are winning elections, however as you mentioned few can still sneak as in the case of this guy Graf.

[Owen]

Does not the party have to send its resources to races where the polling says the seat is in reach? If this candidate is not polling competitively, why would it be the GOP's fault? The cart must come before the horse, not vice versa.