Posted on 09/25/2006 11:18:47 AM PDT by okstate
THe Mason Dixon poll, conducted on behalf of Minnesota Public Radio and the St. Paul Pioneer Press, is similar to other independent polls released on the race last week. Both candidates are polling well among their core supporters but Klobuchar also has strong support from independent voters.
St. Paul, Minn. — The poll interviewed 625 registered voters in Minnesota between September 18 and September 20. The poll found that a little more than half of those polled -- 52 percent -- support Democrat Amy Klobuchar. Thirty-seven percent support Republican Mark Kennedy. Independence Party member Robert Fitzgerald and Green Party member Michael Cavlan each received the support of one percent of respondents. Nine percent are undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus- or minus-four percentage points.
Klobuchar campaign manager Ben Goldfarb stuck with the campaign's usual response when asked about the results. He says the campaign doesn't pay much attention to polls. Goldfarb expects the race to be close but is pleased that Klobuchar has maintained a lead in several independent polls.
"We've been all over the state and we've been talking to folks for a long time now and it has been pretty consistent that we're hearing that they're ready for change," Goldfarb said. "They're fed up with the high cost of health care and gas prices and homeownership and college tuition and they know we can do better."
Kennedy campaign manager Pat Shortridge says he isn't bothered by the latest poll numbers showing his candidate behind by double digits. He says he expected Kennedy to be behind at Labor Day but expects support to grow as election day gets closer. Shortridge says voters will start moving Kennedy's way once they understand where the candidates stand on the issues.
"We clearly look at it as a very close and hotly contested race," Shortridge said. "And clearly the Democrats are treating it as such as well since they sent $300,000 to the DFL Party. They reserved $2 million on TV time on behalf of Amy Klobuchar and Bill Clinton was here last Saturday. It sounds to me like they're pretty clear: it's a close race."
Shortridge also says the poll was conducted before Amy Klobuchar fired her chief spokeswoman for viewing an unreleased Kennedy TV ad. He says that will draw some voters to Kennedy. The poll indicates Kennedy can rely on the support of loyal Republicans. Eight in 10 Republicans say they support Kennedy. One of them is Larry Tillemans of St. Joseph.
"I basically vote straight Republican and I don't know a whole lot about the issues," he said. "I have a lot of faith and confidence in what the president does and the party," Tillemans said.
Kennedy seems to be struggling among independent voters, typically an important block in any election. Twenty-seven percent of the independents polled back him but nearly twice as many -- 53 percent -- support Klobuchar.
One self-declared independent voter, Susan Phillips of Forest Lake, says Kennedy has some work to do to win her vote.
"I like what Mark Kennedy has to say except that I seem to remember the last time he ran... I felt that he ran a very dirty campaign and I'm a person who has a very long memory," Phillips said.
Phillips says she supported Independence Party member Robert Fitzgerald, but now feels like he's not going to win. She says she's leaning towards voting for Klobuchar. Phillips is one of a large portion of poll respondents who aren't happy with Congress. Sixty-seven percent don't approve of the way Congress is doing its job. Only 17 percent approve. Sixteen percent were undecided.
The war in Iraq emerged as the leading issue in the Senate race. Twenty-one percent rated it the most important issue. Kathleen Miller of St. Paul says she's voting for Amy Klobuchar because she believes she'll challenge President Bush on the war.
"I just think it's a horrible, misguided hideous atrocity," Miller said. "We never should have gotten in. We have spent an exorbitant amount of money and more importantly killed so many American kids."
Fifteen percent of those polled view health care and Medicare as the most important issue in the race. Twelve percent view the "war on terror" and homeland security as the most important issue. The candidates have just over six weeks to make their case to the voters. The next Senate debate is October 10.
MN Trendlines
09-25 Mason-Dixon .......... Klobuchar +15
09-22 Humphrey Institute ... Klobuchar +16
09-15 Star-Tribune ............ Klobuchar +24
08-28 Rasmussen .............. Klobuchar +7
08-27 Gallup ..................... Klobuchar +10
Mason-Dixon has Kennedy down 15 in Minnesota
Well. Santorum, then Hostetler, and Steele. Now Kennedy.... The good news just keeps on coming today. ;-)
I'd like to know how many Republicans the reporter had to interview before he found this prize-winning dunce. Several dozen, I would suspect. This is the kind of subtle media bias that's so hard to prove, but we all know it exists.
-ccm
I'm trying to figure out exactly how it is that the GOP will keep control of the Senate. Who's the great hope, Chafee???
We can only hope all these polls are wrong, or that things take a dramatic turnaround by Nov 7. As of now though, the GOP could lose 6 or 7 Senate seats. I don't think it will happen but I hope we don't see another 1986 in the making.
The race will be closer, but it doesn't look good for Mark Kennedy.
Mary Kiffmeyer would have been a better candidate.
I remember 1986.
It was unpleasant - both on the national level and here in Minnesota.
Several times, this summer I've thought to myself "This election cycle is smelling a lot like 1986".
I hope I'm wrong. I really do.
It would've been better if Flaky Dayton had run for a 2nd term. Klownbuchar will obviously be the "Dangerously Incompetent" of MN if she pulls it off.
Well, aside from Rudy Perpich's reelection, MN was rather unchanged politically-speaking, so I'm not sure what else happened there.
It was worse down here in TN, as we had lost the last Senate seat to the 'Rats when Lamar! refused to run against Gore in '84 for Howard Baker's open seat, and '86 was the final nail in the coffin when Lamar! was thoroughly unable (unwilling ?) to aid the GOP candidate to succeed him, former Governor Winfield Dunn. Although I was a youngster, it was in that election I became a Republican, disgusted by the corpulent and statist rodent Ned McWherter, who won the Governor's race, and TN's political dark age descended with the subtlety of an anvil dropped upon ones genitals from a high altitude.
As of now, looks like a wipeout.
The GOP had won control of the state house of representatives in the '84 election. And lost seats in the state senate - where we were in the minority already.
We lost 15 seats and never re-gained control of the state house 'til '98.
We has fielded credible candidates for the constitutional offices too. They all lost - except for state auditor Arne Carlson.
One difference from 1986 to now is that President Reagan had fairly high approval ratings then, as I recall. Yet his party still got drubbed. That's one reason I worry so much about this year. But you never know. Clinton's approval ratings were high in '98 but the Dems made no gains in the Senate. So midterm Senate elections can be surprising. We can only hope a big GOP turnout and aggressive campaigns bring about victory this year.
There is still time. Hopefully someone will record Klobachar's own words and make her regret them.
Mark Kennedy's campaign is currently using Amy Klobuchar's many words against her.
Go to http://www.markkennedy06.com to see the ads.
I'm baffled as to why:
1) He hasn't caught on at all
2) He's losing to an empty suit that is utterly unappealing in every sense of the word (politics, positions, presence).
I'm cautiously optimistic that the campaign is just beginning.
Problem here in TN, other than Governor, the people have no say in the statewide offices (and unlike NJ, which has a similar situation, the Governor has no say in whom gets appointed, save the military position of Adjutant-General). The last time we held the State House of Reps was in 1969, when we had parity with the 'Rats and elected a Speaker (the retiring 1st District Congressman Bill Jenkins), and didn't win the Senate (not counting a brief majority we had in 1995 following 2 party switches, after the election) until 2004. Gerrymandering here is VERY bad, and the 'Rats have not won a majority of the popular vote for the legislature since the early '90s, but still maintain absolute control of the House and de facto control of the Senate.
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