Posted on 09/21/2006 2:26:55 PM PDT by okstate
Democrat Take-Away in Ohio Governor:
In an election for Governor of Ohio today, 9/21/2006, Democrat Ted Strickland defeats Republican Ken Blackwell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown.
Strickland, currently representing Ohio's 6th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, gets 56%. Blackwell, currently Ohio Secretary of State, gets 35%.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 8/8/06, Strickland is down a statistically insignificant 1 point, Blackwell is unchanged. In sum: no movement.
24% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat Strickland; only 5% of Democrats cross-over and vote for the Republican Blackwell. Independents break 5:2 for Strickland.
Conservatives vote for Blackwell by 36 points, but Strickland leads among moderates by 37 points. Strickland leads by 14 points among men, by 28 points among women. Incumbent Republican Governor Bob Taft is term-limited. The seat is open. The election is in 47 days, on 11/7/2006.
Democrat Take-Away in Ohio U.S. Senate:
In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 9/21/2006, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats incumbent Republican Mike DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown.
Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 52% to 42% in a vote today.
There has been no significant movement in this race. In June Brown led DeWine by 9 points; in August by 8 points; today by 10 points.
The two candidates are tied among male voters. Brown leads by 19 points among female voters. DeWine holds 80% of his Republican base. Brown holds 86% of his Democrat base. Brown leads by 27 points among Independents, up from a 15-point lead on 8/8/06.
Republican DeWine leads by 60 points among Conservatives. Democrat Brown leads by 81 points among Liberals. Among Moderates, Democrat Brown leads 2:1.
DeWine wins in Western OH. Brown wins in Central and Eastern OH.
The election is on 11/7/2006. DeWine was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. Brown was first elected to Congress in 1992.
Filtering: 900 Ohio adults were surveyed 9/18/2006 - 9/20/2006. Of them, 788 were registered to vote. Of them, 490 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
This poll probably overstates Brown's support a bit. The partisan breakdown of the poll was 41 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican, and 18 percent independent.
It seems there is a whole lot more party loyalty in the Dem party. 5 times more. 25 Precent vote for strickland?
Looks like based on the trend Survey USA is screwed in the head. I doubt Brown is up by 10.
Looks like the outlier of the pack.
I do, too.
They've had a couple of weird results lately, namely this one and the poll a couple of days ago that had Kyl up only 5 in Arizona. But in Maryland they have Steele up one.. and their results in Missouri and Michigan Senate recently have been dead on I think. So they are kind of hit-and-miss the last two weeks unless dynamics of the races are really shifting fast.
Taft, Noe, and Ney have screwed up the Ohio GOP for several years to come. MHO, DeWine and Blackwell both lose. I hope I'm wrong.
I think you may be right but I believe there is a good underlying reason for that:
Most Dems have become very left-leaning. Their party's elected representatives are at least that far left and a bit more.
Repubs voters are still mostly conservative. More and more of the GOP's elected representatives have moved much further left and many now are closer to the Dem electorate than the conservatives voters.
This leftward shift isn't just in the usual places - northeast, rustbelt. It is happening in the "conservative" south too.
Hopefully one day our GOP reps will reflect our values again or we need to remake or replace the party.
"Filtering: 900 Ohio adults were surveyed 9/18/2006 - 9/20/2006. Of them, 788 were registered to vote. Of them, 490 were judged to be "likely" voters"
The above is a big part of the problem. Adults, not registered to vote, and merely registered voters aren't going to get you an accurate read. I bet if they had used only likely voters, they'd have gotten a result more like the other polling outfits shown above.
DeWine down 10 in Ohio for Senate
how is DeCheese doing?
What the hell is wrong in Ohio?
The article says "Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters."
So the numbers reflect only the 490 Likely Voters here.
Ahh, missed that.
900 adults. They judged 400 to be "likely" voters. Idiotically small sample, and typical of what passes for polling these days. BTW, I'm hearing from inside the Blackwell camp that the number is -5, not -21, but posters here can believe whatever the hell they want.
900 adults. They judged 400 to be "likely" voters. Idiotically small sample, and typical of what passes for polling these days. BTW, I'm hearing from inside the Blackwell camp that the number is -5, not -21, but posters here can believe whatever the hell they want.
Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
As I thought about that, I think what they mean is where they cross tabulate say male voters, female voters, conservatives, liberals, etc. they're using likely voters to make the comparisons. I don't see that they're indicating it is what was used to come up with the overall result. Either way, this survey is a mess with its mixing of apples and oranges.
A 21 point gap in a state that leans GOP is too ridiculous for me to believe. -5 seems more likely.
Ohio is only slightly Republican. The state went for Bill Clinton. I think Dewine is out. When Voinovich is up for election he is most likely out as well because of his crying over John Bolton.
Yeah but I thought Blackwell was supposed to be a strong candidate. Solid conservative position, elected to statewide office. He being tarred with the same tax brush?
"Taft, Noe, and Ney have screwed up the Ohio GOP for several years to come."
Exactly. It's sad too, because the gop really was in the driver's seat...power corrupts.
No, no go to the link. In the tabular crosstabs it specifically says "490 Likely Voters". So yes they are using likely voters to make the comparisons in the write-up but they are also using likely voters for the crosstab that reads "All" which shows Strickland up 21 and Brown up 10.
The registered but not likely voters and the adults that aren't registered aren't being reported in the results at all.
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