Poll Shows N.J. Senate Race a Dead Heat (Kean up 3, Quinnipiac)

Newsday ^ | 20 September 2006 | Donna de la Cruz

[okstate]

WASHINGTON -- The Senate race in New Jersey, which a Republican hasn't won in 34 years, remains virtually tied with less than two months before Election Day, a poll released Wednesday shows.

Among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. holds a 48-45 percent edge over Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, the Quinnipiac University poll showed. Six percent remain undecided. This survey of 688 likely voters has an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Among the 1,233 registered voters surveyed, Menendez has a 41-38 percent edge. This survey has an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[okstate]

Excellent news from New Jersey. Another poll right in line with the others showing Kean ahead.

NJ Trendlines:
09-18 Quinnipiac ................ Kean +3
09-10 Strategic Vision ........ Kean +4
08-28 Rasmussen ............... Kean +5
08-27 Fairleigh Dickinson ... Kean +4

[Always Right]

Great news. Shoot, even Katherine Harris may find a way to put Florida in play. She went from down 30 to down 15 after her primary win.

[GregH]

Funny if a Republican is up by 3 it is a dead heat, when a democrat is up by the same it is a big lead.

[okstate]

Ping, Quinnipiac has Kean up 3 in NJ

[icwhatudo]

Who else knew, as soon as they saw the race listed as a "dead heat" , the Republican was probably up 3-6 points?

Kinda like a debate in which "both candidates made good points" =the republican won .....or an article about a politician taking bribes in which his political party is not mentioned= a dem.

[ReleaseTheHounds]

Yeah, but what happens when Menendez gets replaced by a new and better (less ethically challenged... less susceptible to being prosecuted for bribery) demo candidate weeks after the legal limit for making a switch?

[proudpapa]

Actually, it's not funny at all.

The difference is because of fraud.

[fireman43]

I live in NJ, and for a state that is supposedly wealthy and well-educated, the people still manage to be dumb enough to vote the same corrupt Democrats in, year in and year out.

Of course, like everywhere else in the USA, it helps that the newspapers here, especially the Red Star Ledger, shill for the Democrats and downplay their crimes.

[GnL]

Maybe Lautenberg can run for the other seat as well.

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

Hate to say it but the DEMS will win this one walking away.


Since 2000 no GOP candidate whether it was conservative Brett Schundler or RINOs have gotten more than 46% of the vote in a state wide race. Also New Jersey polls seem to understate DEM strength on election day. No poll ever showed Corzine with a 10 point lead last year. Most polls were 3-5 points for Corzine and some toss up. If a NJ poll shows GOP 45 and DEM 48, inevitably on election day the final result is GOP 45 DEM 55.

[Clintonfatigued]

Every poll shows that Kean is pulling slightly ahead.

While this seems like a good environment for Democrat candidates generally, it's bad for New Jersey Democrats. First of all, Governor Jon Corzine botched his year in the statehouse, a former Camden County Chairman got convicted, a Democratic state legislative leader is facing a bribery trial, AND ex-Governor Jim McGreevey is promoting his book. Bob Menendez is running in a year when NJ voters are more intolerant of scandals than in memory.

McGreevey's timing is so bad for Menendez, I could swear that he was being sponsored by the Conservative Book Club.

[oceanview]

McGreevey is on H&C now. Ugh.

[oceanview]

you have to breakdown the NJ electorate:

- government employees - municipal, state, NJEA - have a 90+% turnout, and vote solidly Dem to secure their pensions et al.

- NJ has large minority blocks in the urban areas, and has a HUGE # of illegals who vote.

- there are many other "natural" Dem voting blocks - jewish voters, people who moved to NJ from NYC and brought their politics with them.

Any R candidate has to overcome these large segments above which the Dems get right out of the gate - so its hard to win.

[Clintonfatigued]

Look at it this way- it's hurting the Menendez campaign, further reminding NJ voters of why they don't like the people running the state.

[mware]

McGreedy's new book coming out today is good for another 5 points in the polls for Kean.

[oceanview]

did you see that other thread - Steele is tied in a poll for MD senate?

[MinnesotaLibertarian]

You're mostly right, except there's really not that many illegals in New Jersey. There are a lot of Hispanics, but most are non-Mexican and legal.

[oceanview]

Liz will have something to say about your comment - I have seen many reports about the volume of illegals voting in NJ.

[Liz]

Menendez figures he has nothing to worry about. No matter what dirt spills out, he's a shoo-in.

Why?

B/c there are some one million illegal aliens in the Democratic voting base.......not counting all the illegals they'll truck in from other states to vote on election day.

Illegals will vote Menendez no questions asked b/c he is their ticket to amnesty, and millions upon millions of free US government benefits.

Menendez is prepared to loot the US Treasury and would ship the US Social Security system across the border to payoff illegals who keep him in the Senate.

Menendez himself was once a foreign national......but he has yet to produce his "citizenship" papers, and will not say whether he entered the US legally.

It's probably just a "hateful rumor" that Menendez has visas in several names, and more than one Social Security number and that his campaign mananger is telling him not to take anymore two-seater plane trips to Colombia till the election is over (cackle).

[Liz]

HER'S A GOOD LINK TO EXPLORE ALL OF THE MONEY ANGLES
http://www.getnj.com/onlygameintown/messages/4954.shtml

Kay Licausi's Gold Mine?
Former Aide to Congressman Robert Menendez gets hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees.

Lists the loot Menendez's girlie Kay LiCausi rakes in. LiCausi's lobbying group called "KL Strategies, Inc." Fronts to rake in the cash as Bobby legislates federal grants for her clients. KL Strategies, Inc. is at an address where LiCausi and Menendez share an apartment.



THE KUSHNER CONNECTION LINK
Menendez's Millienum PAC rakes in money from anyone it can including Convicted Tax Cheat Charlie Kushner:

KUSHNER, CHARLIE FLORHAM PARK
NJ 07932 09/15/2003 5000.00
BRUCKNER PLAZA ASSOCIATES/PARTNER 23992202605

KUSHNER, DARA FLORHAM PARK
NJ 07932 04/15/2004 5000.00
HOMEMAKER 24961364432

KUSHNER, JARED LIVINGSTON
NJ 07039 04/15/2004 5000.00
STUDENT 24961364431

KUSHNER, JOSHUA LIVINGSTON
NJ 07039 04/15/2004 5000.00
STUDENT 24961364420
KUSHNER, NICOLE FLORHAM PARK
NJ 07932 04/15/2004 5000.00
STUDENT 24961364422

KUSHNER, SERYL (wife)
LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
03/23/2004 5000.00
WESTMINSTER (one of 50 Kushner businesses)