Democrat Lucas On Top again in Seesaw KY-4 Race (Survey USA Poll, Lucas up 4)

Survey USA ^ | 19 September 2006 | Survey USA

[okstate]

Democrat Lucas On Top again in Seesaw KY4 Race:

In an election today, 9/19/2006, in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, Democrat Ken Lucas leads Republican incumbent Geoff Davis, 48% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati.

Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 8/10/06, Lucas, who represented the 4th District from 1999 through 2004, has gained 4 points. Davis, who lost to Lucas in 2002 but was elected in 2004 after Lucas retired, has lost 2 points.

Lucas led by 9 points in July, trailed by 2 in August, and now leads by 4. The election is in 7 weeks, on 11/7/06.

Lucas gets 81% of Democrat votes. Davis gets 80% of Republican votes. Independents prefer the Republican Davis by 6 points. Lucas's improvement comes from women voters, where he has gone from a 4-point lead to a 17-point lead. Among men, Davis leads by 8 points: a 25-point "gender gap".

Both parties covet the House seat as they seek control of Congress. Heavy ad spending and a nationalized agenda mean poll results are likely to fluctuate further between now and election day, 11/7/2006.

Filtering: 900 adults from Kentucky's 4th Congressional District were interviewed 9/16/06 - 9/18/06. Of them, 780 were registered to vote. Of them, 427 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

[okstate]

KY-04 Trendlines:

09/18 Survey USA .................. Lucas +4
08/29 Constituent Dynamics .... Davis +3
08/09 Survey USA .................. Davis +2
07/24 Survey USA .................. Lucas +9

[Theodore R.]

I would suspect that at least half the constituents there think Lucas is the incumbent.

[okstate]

Entirely possible. In the case of this race I don't know if incumbency really matters much, if at all.

[appleharvey]

I remember up until election night 2004, Republicans were to have losses from the Presidency through the House and Senate. We all know how that turned out. I'm content to vote, and let the races be decided at the only poll that counts. The one on election day.

[nj26]

Are there more Democrats than Republicans in this district? Sampling is based upon that premise.

[okstate]

Lucas won by 2 in 2002. Bush beat Gore in KY-04 by 24 in 2000.


The district is weird because it has some extremely Dem counties and some extremely GOP counties, too.

[MMcC]

So where are the districts with the GOP "surge" I keep hearing about? I keep seeing polls where President Bush's ratings are going up and the 'generic' GOP ratings are going up, but it seems every poll posted shows an incumbent Republican behind.

[okstate]

I have a theory that we are experiencing the opposite of what Democrats usually experience. Recently, side-to-side comparisons of likely voters and registered voters polls show that in some cases, Democrats do better in LV polls than in RV polls, which is the exact opposite of what usually happens.

This indicates that Democrats are more motivated to vote than are Republicans in 2006. (Usually we see the reverse, where if Democrats could get all their voters out they would do better). In terms of the generic ballot, this is why the GOP would fare well in it but do poorly in actual races.

Furthermore there are specialized cases out there like TX-22 (DeLay, OPEN) and AZ-08 (Kolbe, OPEN) where circumstances have given the Democrats big advantages. But then other cases are inexplicable, like why all three troubled Indiana Republican House members are down big in the polls to Rats.

I'm pretty sure that we'll lose a handful of seats to the Dems -- maybe 6 or 7. But can we turn it around? Sure, if we get our voters motivated enough.

(And a word about the Senate, too. Elections for Senate are a lot different and depend on the candidate more than party. The fact is that Chafee, Burns, and others have problems that aren't necessarily a result of a "Democratic Year".)

[Intolerant in NJ]

Less than half the sample was likely voters - pretty unreliable methodolgy when trying to project how the actual vote will turn out.......

[Dianna]

The district is weird because it has some extremely Dem counties and some extremely GOP counties, too.

This is my district. I live in one of the dem strongholds. I haven't seen ONE sign for Lucas and quite frankly, didn't know that Lucas was running against him.

I suspect that the close result the year of the Presidential election has made the dems think that in an out year they will have a better chance.

[Dianna]

Less than half the sample was likely voters - pretty unreliable methodolgy when trying to project how the actual vote will turn out.......

I got a call a few weeks ago from a pollster. When the guy found out I was a registered voter and VERY likely to vote, he had no further questions for me.

[okstate]

No, no, I think you are misunderstanding. The horserace numbers are based only on the likely voters portion of the sample.

[GregH]

ok folks, this is a survey USA poll .. you have to add atleast 4 % to the Republican candidate and subtract 4% from the Dem one.

[jmaroneps37]

Kentucky is trending GOP. Yes Fletcher was/is a problem but the trend is there. In 2000 Bush took 57%. In 2004 he took 60%. Fletcher was the first GOP gov in 32 years.
Lucas has an ACU rating of 71 lifetime but sagged to 57% in 2004. The GOP is in a nationwide surge and Davis has a
money lead of 900k. lucas has an interesting website. He has no issues posted. He is basically running on "I'm not a Republican and I have no ties to Bush."

Well that is now the wrong position. Endorsements and "I'm not a Republican" won't beat a GOP incumbent with a 900k lead this year.

[jmaroneps37]

"This indicates that Democrats are more motivated to vote than are Republicans in 2006."

There is absolutely no evidence for this statement.

But I can back up the opposite. Look at the low 40% turnout in the lament/liarman race. Yes 40% sounds big for a primary but not THAT primary. Nevertheless, the THREE PERCENT turn out in Va.'s open primary that webb won says it all.

The truth is that love of country will trump hate of Bush.
The media created "rat surge" is turning out to be a fraud.
The GOP base is energized and the rank and file rat can't touch the genuine enthusiasm of true Americans.

[okstate]

"There is absolutely no evidence for this statement."

Yes, there is. I already explained it a couple of posts above. And 40 percent is a HUGE turnout for a primary.

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

I agree.

The generic ballot has gone from DEMS +10 or more to a dead heat. Yet I see no evidence of that in district by district analysis. Worse yet there is certainly no evidence of any tightening in the close Senate races, with the exception of Santorum.

RI-Toss up but who cares
PA-Santorum made up ground but DEM still ahead in all polls
OH-No movement toward GOP, DEM leads in all polls
MO-No movement toward GOP, DEM leads in most polls
MT-No movement towards GOP, DEM leads in all polls
TN-Went from safe GOP to toss up
VA-Went from safe GOP to leaning GOP.
MN-GOP Candidate falling further behind
WA-GOP Candidate falling further behind
MD-GOP Candidate behind
FL-GOP Candidate making up ground, but still far behind
NJ-GOP Candidate ahead, but cheating will carry Menendez to victory

I see no positive changes in the senate races that would result in the GOP losing less than 5 seats at a minimum and possibly up to 7.

Perhaps Kay Baliey Hutchinson has widened her lead from 25 to 50 points. I know Ensign in NV went from being up 10 on Jimmy Carter JR to being up 20+. Big deal


So Santorum, Harris have made up ground but are still likely to lose and Ensign who was going to win anyway has opened up a bigger lead. Meanwhile the must win seats show no movement towards the GOP.


BTW if you think 2006 has been gloomy for the GOP in the Senate, wait till 2008. There are 6 GOP Senators would will be beatable either due to retirements or weak incumbents but only 2 DEMS (LA and SD).


In 2000, 2002, or 2004 were there any GOP incumbent Senators who spent much of the year behind, to pull it out in the last month and win? In fact Spencer Abraham was the opposite. He was leading only to lose in the final week.

[Intolerant in NJ]

If you say so - hard to tell from the figures as posted.....