Posted on 09/06/2006 7:43:50 PM PDT by dangus
Pundits of every stripe have been treating it as a forgone conclusion that the Democrats would pick up many seats in the House. Most suggest that the Democrats are in strong shape to gain the fifteen needed to take control. There's only one problem with that theory: while the generic surveys show the Democrats with a significant, although quickly shrinking lead, when faced with a real, live Democrat -- not their idealized 1940s populist, but a real, dyed-in-the-wool blame-America Democrat -- they decide the Republicans aren't so bad after all. So far.
Now, it's only election day, and it's true that there are a lot of Republicans in tight races. Normally, that spells trouble. But it should not be surprising that in this specific election, there are many Democrats who, no matter what, announce early on that they will vote for whatever Democrat they can. That's what I believe has changed: the incumbent doesn't get the early rubber stamp. But only one publicly-released poll has shown a Democrat leading in a seat currently held by a Republican... and that's a statistical tie by a shady polling outfit.
Now, I'm sure that there are probably some Republican seats which may go Democrat. For instance, Bob Ney's and Tom DeLay's may go Democrat just because of ballot-law shenanigans. And several of the most endangered Republicans have not had polls released on their districts. Nonetheless, it HAS to be considered significant that not one of the polls that has come out show a Republican losing. I certainly expect that if a Democratic, academic, or liberal-media poll showed a Republican losing, that poll would be quickly heralded.
That said, this is the polling data I've found after discovering that Politics1.com is the best for publishing every poll released publicly:
UTAH - CD-1: Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 57%, engineer Steve Olsen (D) - 23%. (Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV).
UTAH - CD-3: Congressman Chris Cannon (R) - 56%, attorney Christian Burridge (D) - 24%. (Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV).
VERMONT - CONGRESS: State Adjutant General Martha Rainville (R) - 42%, Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch (D) - 41%. (American Research Group). (Pickup for GOP)
MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 57%, State Representative Darlene Curl (R) - 11%, peace activist Dexter Kamilewicz (Independent) - 3%. (Strategic Marketing).
MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Mike Michaud (D) - 62%, medical technician Scott D'Amboise (R) - 14%. (Strategic Marketing).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Jeb Bradley (R) - 55%, State House Minority Leader Jim Craig (D) - 27%. (University of New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Bradley (R) - 58%, Democratic activist Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 24%. (University of New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Charlie Bass (R) - 53%, attorney Paul Hodes (D) - 25%. (University of New Hampshire).
KENTUCKY - CONGRESS - CD-4: Congressman Geoff Davis (R) - 46%, former Congressman Ken Lucas (D) - 44%. (WCPO-TV/SurveyUSA). (A previous poll had Davis behind by nine points.)
NEW YORK - CD-20: Congressman John Sweeney (R) - 53%, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 34%. (Siena College).
WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) - 54%, former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) - 41%. (KING-TV/SurveyUSA).
COLORADO - CD-7: State Higher Education Commission Chair Rick O'Donnell (R) - 45%, former State Senator Ed Perlmutter (D) - 45%, businessman Dave Chandler (Green) - 2%, businessman Roger McCarville (Constitution) - 2%. (KFOR-TV/SurveyUSA). (Potential Democrat Pickup)
CALIFORNIA - CONGRESS - CD-48: Congressman John Campbell (R) - 57%, attorney Steve Young (D) - 31%, realtor Bruce Cohen (Libertarian) - 6%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).
CALIFORNIA - CONGRESS - CD-26: Congressman Dave Dreier (R) - 48%, environmental consultant Cynthia Matthews (D) - 35%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).
COLORADO - CONGRESS - CD-4: Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave (R) - 46%, State Representative Angie Paccione (D) - 42%, former Reagan Administration EPA official Eric Eidsness (Reform) - 8%. (KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA).
NEW MEXICO - CD-1: Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) - 45%, Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) - 42%. (Albuquerque Journal).
VIRGINIA -CD-5: Congressman Virgil Goode (R) - 59%, winemaker Al Weed (D) - 35%. (WDBJ-TV/SurveyUSA).
The only Republican trailing: (This is a very old poll, incidentally... from two months ago, and I've heard not-particularly-rock-solid whispers that Chocola is turning it around.)
INDIANA -CD-2: Attorney Joe Donnelly (D) - 46%, Congressman Chris Chocola (R) - 41%. (South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV).
If anyone else has any polling data of HOUSE races, please be sure to share. Also, note that, besides Chocola, the other seat polling that it would currently switch hands would go from Democrat to Republican (Vermont.)
Murtha did a poll, we don't know the results; however, his actions subsequent to this supposed poll, which reflect a shift from going to national to focusing more on home, suggest it's not going his way.
No official polls released to date as per the Irey campaign.
Wow! That's nine seats we have a possibility of losing right there. Not good.
Everybody loves Babs Bush. There's a few other Congressional Districts she needs to hit before election day. How about sending her to Pennsylvania 12 to campaign for Diana Irey?
Ms. Rainville's statement that she didn't need the Prez to come campaign for her because "we're doing well as we are" sounds to me like: "Hey, GW, don't show up here."
Any word on Sue Kelly in NY?
And Schwartznegger, Jeb, GW all lost according to the "experts"!! Polls Schmolls!
Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters
I don't think losing a couple seats is out of the question but i'd be shocked to lose one or both branches. I don't see it in the cards and your polling data adds to my confidence.
"Thw wide Dum lead represents nationwide polling on whether you'd vote for a Deum orRep., but the voting is local. "
Good points. In general people are fed up with congress and the way things work in Washington. So if you ask them a generic question about if we need a leadership change they will usually say yes. The numbers change a lot when you put specific names to the question and do it district by district because Americans generally seem to think their own congress-critter is one of the (few) good ones.
This is great stuff! It supports my take posted Monday, that we will NOT lose seats BUT pick up 2 to 5 seats.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1695178/posts
RAT internal polls or not. We have to put our "petals to the metals". This is how elections are won.
Another examples would be Richard Burr, Saxby Chambliss, and Lisa M of AK. These Senators were behind in their Senate races during the Labor Day weekend. Yet they won through hard work. This year is no different.
Point taken. Put John Thune and Norm Coleman in that category also. But in terms of House races they tend to break one way in October.
Point taken. Put John Thune and Norm Coleman in that category also. But in terms of House races they tend to break one way in October.
What happened was, a week before Labor Day, the polls started going R, especially the notorious generic ballot poll. Then, over the weekend, there was a conspicuous media blitz telling about how the Democrats were going to get 110% of the vote in even Republican districts.
Karl Rove does not win elections in August.
After the dimwit thugs of the US Senate threatened a major network....the voters saw their soviet style of doin' business. If they'd kept their stupid mouths shut...and not brought attention to their selves...they may have had a chance. They didn't and they again become sorelosers!!!!!!!!
marking
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