Hurricane Florence update

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200606.disc.html#a_topad | NHC Via Wunderground

[nralife]

"Waaaay out in the Central Atlantic, TD #6 has developed, with plans to make a name for itself."


I hope it stays a loong ways from the Gulf of Mexico! I'll be in NOla this coming weekend.

[onthedancefloort]

Let me be the first to pen this Week's Feature Film as;

"Florence of Acadia"

If it does develop it has a chance at being an East Coast Standing room only production!

My apologies to Mr. O'Toole....lol

-t

[SauronOfMordor]

I suppose there's always someone out there willing to take risks like that for the adrenalin rush. I can think of easier ways to die.

Like getting killed by a stingray, like what happened to that "Crocodile Hunter" guy yesterday

[metmom]

Probably quicker than getting mauled by a polar bear. That is sad news.

[Sam Cree]

The labor day storm track is horrifyingly similar to Andrew's, albeit further south, and recurving further east.

And north of the Antilles.

These threads are very educational.

[dirtboy]

And there is another very good lesson about the Labor Day storm - it went from being "just" a tropical storm to a Cat 5 monster in less that 2 days. That is one reason it was so deadly - it caught people off guard.

If you are within the cone of uncertainty of "just" a tropical storm and live in a vulnerable area, you still have to treat it as if it could become a major hurricane before landfall, unless there are clear and compelling forecast reasons (such as water temps or shear) that it will not intensify. If you wait until you are sure, it may be too late to evacuate.

[Clive]

Here is Advisory 4 for 1100 EDT 2006-09-04

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1235 MILES...1990 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...42.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[dirtboy]

It isn't looking all that impressive this morning. There is still a bit of dry air left around it. Plus, a modest el Nino-type shear pattern has set up over much of the western Atlantic. Hopefully that will be a solid defensive pattern for the US the remainder of the season.

[Dog Gone]

Intensity forecasting is definitely rocket science and we're not very good at it.

But the models are in general agreement that we'll have Tropical Storm Florence this week.

[Sam Cree]

Would you guys like to take a crack at explaining (vertical?) shear to me, where it comes from, and how it affects hurricanes.

Or perhaps recommend a site that tells about it?

I suppose I can Google something up on the subject.

[SoftballMominVA]

There was a recent article in the MSM that said polar bears' testicles were shrinking due to global warming. You would be suicidal too.

There's a job for everyone in this world--and one of them includes measuring polar bear's balls.

[dirtboy]

I think we need a new list of hurricane names:

Argh
Bleech
Crap
Damn
Eeeww
Furball
Grrr
Harumph
Irate
Jeez
Krap
Larry
Moe
Nuts
Oprah (couldn't resist that one)
Phil (couldn't resist that one either)
Ralph (as in up a furball)
Shiite
Toughshiite
Verytoughshiite
Uffda (we could have used a "U" storm last year)
Whenisthisevergonnafriggingend

[SoftballMominVA]

www.storm2k.org is a GREAT site for all types of weather. In addtion, there are many mods on the site that will explain, in layman's terms, some of the more complicated aspects of hurricanes.

[eastforker]

Harumph............... That should be " Help me, Help me"

[SoftballMominVA]

FWIW

The mods at storm2k.org are initially predicting a NC/SC landfall, although FL and GA cannot be ruled out at this time.

When one looks at the historical maps, this storm is loosely following the track of Fran from 1996, which made landfall at the NC/SC border.

It's still early, but it looks like the GOM will miss this one.

[dirtboy]

Shear is mid and upper level winds that push convection away from the center of circulation. The heat released from condensation of tropical humidity is what powers hurricane development. A tropical wave creates lift that triggers thunderstorms. Thunderstorms release heat, which rises. That pulls in more air, which increases lift, which triggers more thunderstorms, which pulls in even more air, and over time the Coreolis Effect imparts a spin on the incoming air.

Note that for air to come into the developing storm, it also has to go somewhere. That is why you hear talk of upper-level high pressure and outflow - the two combined evacuates the rising air away from the storm center. Without outflow, the flow of air into the storm is stopped akin to putting a potato in someone's exhaust pipe.

Any kind of straight winds blowing across the system - either large-scale pervasive winds, fronts or upper-level lows - disrupt that process. Shear typically pushes the convection away from the center, which means the heat released is not going towards building up the central low. And shear can also inhibit outflow, which can choke off growth as well.

During el Nino years, large swaths of straight winds typically blow across much of the Atlantic basin from SW to NE, which puts a major damper on hurricane development.

You can see the impact of an el Nino onset in the 1997 tropical history. Note things were more active than usual prior to August, but there were only three named storms after that, once el Nino kicked in:

Unnamed Subtropical Storm 05/31 - 06/02 50 mph
Tropical Storm Ana 06/30 - 07/05 45 mph
Hurricane Bill 07/11 - 07/13 75 mph
Tropical Storm Claudette 07/13 - 07/16 45 mph
Hurricane Danny 07/16 - 07/27 80 mph
Hurricane Erika 09/03 - 09/19 125 mph
Tropical Storm Fabian 10/04 - 10/08 45 mph
Tropical Storm Grace 10/14 - 10/17 45 mph

[dirtboy]

History is definitely against this being a Gulf storm.

And it's way too damn early to predict where this will hit. Weather forums can be a valuable source of useful information and perspective, but too many posters on them are into these deranged forecasting contests, and if someone gets lucky and does guess the landfall seven days out (and any such act is purely a guess), they act like they have the wisdom of God. And a few of them are also literally weather ghouls, who hope for a really, really bad storm as some form of morbid entertainment.

[SoftballMominVA]

I agree it is early. If you look at storm2k, the posters to pay attention to are the professional meterologists, not the losers like me that just make wild hair guesses. The professional mets are saying IF it doesn't fall apart and IF it stays on its present track it MIGHT hit the East coast.

Again, it is early--up until then, it's just a matter of using common sense if you are on the East coast.

[abb]

TWC reporting wind shear. They're in mourning...

[dirtboy]

Rampant tropical depression among MSM reporters and reporterettes. They will only be able to milk the tragic death of Steve Irwin for two more days or so and are hoping and praying for a hurricane to take up the slack by then.