Posted on 08/27/2006 10:18:30 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
SACRAMENTO - Much like a Hollywood action hero, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has rescued his dangerously low approval ratings after last year's special election and is well positioned in his re-election bid as the fall campaign season opens.
With a Democratic Legislature eager to capitalize on election-year bargaining, Schwarzenegger has enjoyed a string of successes from an on-time budget and a minimum wage hike to backing for his massive infrastructure bonds on the November ballot. Experts say it's not surprising that most polls place him ahead of Democratic rival Treasurer Phil Angelides.
"The general conventional wisdom is it's Schwarzenegger's to lose rather than Angelides' to win," said Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.
A Field poll last month found Schwarzenegger leading Angelides by 8 points, with 15 percent of likely voters still undecided.
The poll also found that Schwarzenegger's 85 percent support among Republicans runs deeper than Angelides' support among Democrats, at just 63 percent.
That leaves Angelides battling for 18 percent of California voters who decline to state a party and trying to lure back those moderate Democrats who supported Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall.
Unlikely to get much crossover Republican support, Angelides also can hope that some conservatives feel alienated enough by Schwarzenegger's moderate stances on environmental and social issues to stay home on Election Day.
But the battle, always costly, will be difficult for Angelides, who spent much of his funds in a bruising primary battle against Controller Steve Westly.
As of June 30, Schwarzenegger reported $4 million in his coffers, compared with $725,000 for Angelides.
"It's very clear (Angelides) needs money, he needs media and he needs a strong message," said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University of Southern California. "That's what every strong candidate needs."
But it's been Schwarzenegger who has been getting much of the attention, aided by a boost from legislative Democrats who have worked with him to negotiate compromises on issues from his infrastructure package to lowering prescription drug costs.
There has been little of the partisan rhetoric in Sacramento that marked much of last year's disastrous special election.
"Sacramento has a reputation for gridlock," said Schwarzenegger campaign spokesman Matt David. "When you look at what the governor's been able to do successfully working with the Legislature, that is appealing to not only Democrats, but to Republicans and decline-to-states."
Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger's campaign has continued to hammer Angelides on the tax issue, claiming the treasurer has made or supported proposals that add up to $18 billion in tax increases and spending.
The Angelides camp disputes that figure, saying the treasurer has proposed only $5 billion in tax increases by boosting the income tax rate on the wealthiest Californians and closing corporate tax loopholes.
The theme used in Schwarzenegger ads has been that Angelides is moving the state backward by proposing higher taxes and more regulations.
But Angelides adviser Bill Carrick said the treasurer's policies should appeal to the vast majority of middle-class Californians, including a rollback of college fees and expanded education and health care.
Schwarzenegger, he said, lost moderate support last year when he took on a more partisan tone during his special ballot-measure campaign.
He said the governor's cooperation this year with the Legislature shouldn't be seen as a reflection of how he would act in his second term.
"There are two Arnold Schwarzeneggers," Carrick said. "There's the guy who is running for re-election to save his job, who is trying to con everyone into thinking he's like a Democrat. Then there's the guy who the rest of the time governs like a partisan Republican.
"If you vote to re-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger, who's going to show up for the job the day after Election Day?"
The Angelides campaign has also made an effort to tie Schwarzenegger to President George W. Bush, who is unpopular in California, by highlighting the governor's campaigning for the president's re-election, his support of the war in Iraq and his use of members of Bush's campaign team.
That approach has not yet given the treasurer the lead in polls, but analysts note things often change after Labor Day, when the television ad campaigns start in earnest.
"I think Angelides has a difficult road ahead of him," Jeffe said. "But things are so very fluid today in politics. And this is still a `blue' state."
Oh, did I mention more debt?
Why am I not excited about the choices on the ballot this November?
For those who think there's no difference between Arnold and Angelides, here it is: Arnold knows we know that such "benefits to the middle-class" are paid for by higher taxes on the middle class; Angelides thinks we're too damn stupid to realize it. Angelides will give us higher taxes, higher workers compensation premiums (rollback of the workers compensation reform act), gay marriage, and drivers licenses for illegals. With Arnold, we can grumble about his dem adviser, his eco-friendly nonsense, and lots of other RINO acts, but he is still against raising taxes and undoing workers comp reform, both of which are essential to the continued economic health of California. End of political rant.
Arnold is a Liberal, a Liberal that isn't as extreme as Pelosi.
That makes him attractive to the Democrats and Independents that are Liberals, but not Kos/Lamont Liberals. Ditto for the Liberal Republicans in the state, of which there are many.
He's a celebrity.
Sure, I could lament the fact he's a liberal as a lot of conservatives justifiably do...but I'm grounded enough to know the draw his "celebrity" has on the voters of Cali. Including Republicans. There's no point in trying to fight it here.
It's always been his to lose.
If he wasn't a celebrity, it would be a different story. But the Terminator is likely to be sent back to office. Afterwards, who knows, he may run for Senate. He can't run for President and politicians rarely like to retire so young in their lives.
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
I'd vote for Arnold if I still lived in CA, his opponent is frightening in his beliefs. Who knows what would happen in CA if he were to win. It would probably be far worse than it is now though.
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