Novak - "GOP will lose 27-30 seats..."

Rightalk.com ^ | 8-25-06 | Bob J

[Bob J]

In an Election 2006 conference sponsored by Paul Weyrich and the Free Congess Foundation this afternoon, panelist Robert Novak stated that based on his and others significant research he believed the GOP would lose between 27-30 seats in the House this fall.

Other panelists inlcuded John Fund, Kate O'Bierne and John Gizzy. A replay of the one hour conference can be heard at www.Rightalk.com , which webcast the event. click on "The Right Hour" logo.

[fewz]

You’re right. The House is much better than the Senate but the Senate confirms judges so we can’t afford to loose that because you‘re also right about needing better judges. But I don’t believe you’re right about needing more laws to solve the moist rear problem. I think we just need the political will to enforce existing law. Making new laws that nobody intends to enforce is just the government's way of stalling. That's why we have more laws than you can shake a stick at.

My number one issue is the WOT and you don’t stir up a hornet’s nest in the middle-east with wide open borders. That’s irresponsible.

Sorry 'bout my wits being so dim.

[hsalaw]

That's what they said last time and the time before.

And that's why we have to get out the vote - it worked in 2002 and 2004, and it'll work in 2006, as long as Republicans and conservatives don't decide to take a pass because they're upset about spending, immigration, PC conduct of the war, etc. We've GOT TO VOTE!

[Clintonfatigued]

The combination of liberal media bias with a real dissatisfaction over the direction of the country makes this a tough call. But the GOP is going to suffer losses in the House. How much is the big unknown.

I forsee the following GOP incumbents falling:

Christopher Shays (CT)
Clay Shaw (FL)
Mike Furgeson (NJ)
Heather Wilson (NM)
John Sweeney (NY)
Charlie Taylor (NC)
Deborah Pryce (OH)
Jim Gerlach (PA)
Curt Weldon (PA)
Dave Reichert (WA)


I wouldn't be shocked to see a few others go under. And you can't count out the vacant districts.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I forsee the following GOP incumbents falling:

Christopher Shays (CT)
Clay Shaw (FL)
Mike Furgeson (NJ)
Heather Wilson (NM)
John Sweeney (NY)
Charlie Taylor (NC)
Deborah Pryce (OH)
Jim Gerlach (PA)
Curt Weldon (PA)
Dave Reichert (WA) "

---

No way that Mike Ferguson will lose in a NJ district that gave President Bush 53% in 2004, especially against a second-tier opponent. And beating John Sweeney is a Democrat pipe dream. As for the others, they might fall in a Democrat landslide, but I think that the only one in the group who will probably lose is Gerlach.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Heather Wilson is already ahead of her opponent, the incompetent NM Atty Gen Patricia Madrid (and I believe Reichert is ahead, too). I think Lieberman will save Shays's butt. Shaw needs to focus on divorcing himself from KH's candidacy (if she wins the primary). I don't see Ferguson or Sweeney as going down. Taylor may still win because his opponent is a jock airhead. I've never understood how Pryce is portrayed as a sure loser. Gerlach could go, but I think Weldon is in better shape. I still believe it would take a major 'Rat tidal wave to take all these people out, and there is no longer any indication of that, as the GOP has already closed the generic gap, for whatever that is worth.

[Clintonfatigued]

Your optomism is encouraging. However, one most note the individual dynamics going on. Reichert nearly lost to a little-known opponent even though he was a local hero. Furgeson's opponent has represented the Congerssional district in the state legislature and county commission. Pryce's opponent represents most of the Congerssional district as County Commissioner, and Boob Taft isn't helping matters. Do you remember Sweeney getting drunk at a frat party (which made local headlines)? His opponent is well funded. Wilson has won by inimpressive margins against second-tier opponents, and her current opponent is better-known than she is. Taylor still faces questions about his finances. And Weldon looked bad when he criticized his opponent for not treating his daughter at a local hospital, when she had a brain tumor.

Now, I see a couple of 'Rat incumbents tottering. Leonard Boswell has a first-rate opponent whose running a good campaign. Charles Melancon has had a lot of constituants move away, and I'll bet most are Democrats. John Borrows and Jim Marshall face well-known opponents in a state where Bush is still popular. I'm hopeful about those races. But right now, the GOP has far better chances of holding the Senate than the House.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Optimistic is a term usually not associated with me, but I figure better to be a little bit with regards to winning contests. You do present some valid points, but I'm not sure if that will necessarily be enough to spell the end of all of their careers.

I'll add again that essentially the Ferguson and Pryce districts were drawn for them, which is always a plus. As for Sweeney, the drinking thing was a tempest in a teapot, way too overblown (certainly nowhere near as bad as Don Sherwood's deciding to slap his bitch ho around -- now why THAT man is still running, I have no idea), and I doubt the voters in his district will either care or remember. Weldon has managed to do well in a slightly 'Rat leaning district and I can't see them tossing him over for a Clintonista ass-kissing military phony.

Also, I wouldn't have described Heather Wilson's opponents as all being 2nd tier. She herself was somewhat of a "2nd tier" candidate when she succeeded Steve Schiff, winning against a high-profile State Senator (Maloof). She also beat the former U.S. Attorney for NM in '00, and the State Senate President in '02 and '04, these were all very serious challenges in a marginal seat for us. While Madrid is a well-known opponent, she carries considerable baggage for her incompetence/grandstanding with all the scandals that have been surrounding the Dems with statewide office (specifically the Treasurer's office).

Here's one columnist's (obviously a liberal) take on the race, and he's already pronounced Madrid D.O.A.:
http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/ne_columnists/article/0,2565,ALBQ_19852_4929704,00.html

[The Old Hoosier]

I watched it -- what he said was that Republicans were saying that.

[Kuksool]

I'd say it would be a shock for the GOP to gain seats in Congress. By the same token it would be a shock for the RATS to gain control of Congress. (It would be the stuff of nightmares).

For a RAT tidal wave to occur, it would mean a district shopping airhead like Tammy Duckworth to win the Great Hyde seat. I am doing what I can to make sure that doesn't happen.