Heather Wilson is already ahead of her opponent, the incompetent NM Atty Gen Patricia Madrid (and I believe Reichert is ahead, too). I think Lieberman will save Shays's butt. Shaw needs to focus on divorcing himself from KH's candidacy (if she wins the primary). I don't see Ferguson or Sweeney as going down. Taylor may still win because his opponent is a jock airhead. I've never understood how Pryce is portrayed as a sure loser. Gerlach could go, but I think Weldon is in better shape. I still believe it would take a major 'Rat tidal wave to take all these people out, and there is no longer any indication of that, as the GOP has already closed the generic gap, for whatever that is worth.
Your optomism is encouraging. However, one most note the individual dynamics going on. Reichert nearly lost to a little-known opponent even though he was a local hero. Furgeson's opponent has represented the Congerssional district in the state legislature and county commission. Pryce's opponent represents most of the Congerssional district as County Commissioner, and Boob Taft isn't helping matters. Do you remember Sweeney getting drunk at a frat party (which made local headlines)? His opponent is well funded. Wilson has won by inimpressive margins against second-tier opponents, and her current opponent is better-known than she is. Taylor still faces questions about his finances. And Weldon looked bad when he criticized his opponent for not treating his daughter at a local hospital, when she had a brain tumor.
Now, I see a couple of 'Rat incumbents tottering. Leonard Boswell has a first-rate opponent whose running a good campaign. Charles Melancon has had a lot of constituants move away, and I'll bet most are Democrats. John Borrows and Jim Marshall face well-known opponents in a state where Bush is still popular. I'm hopeful about those races. But right now, the GOP has far better chances of holding the Senate than the House.
I'd say it would be a shock for the GOP to gain seats in Congress. By the same token it would be a shock for the RATS to gain control of Congress. (It would be the stuff of nightmares).
For a RAT tidal wave to occur, it would mean a district shopping airhead like Tammy Duckworth to win the Great Hyde seat. I am doing what I can to make sure that doesn't happen.