Your optomism is encouraging. However, one most note the individual dynamics going on. Reichert nearly lost to a little-known opponent even though he was a local hero. Furgeson's opponent has represented the Congerssional district in the state legislature and county commission. Pryce's opponent represents most of the Congerssional district as County Commissioner, and Boob Taft isn't helping matters. Do you remember Sweeney getting drunk at a frat party (which made local headlines)? His opponent is well funded. Wilson has won by inimpressive margins against second-tier opponents, and her current opponent is better-known than she is. Taylor still faces questions about his finances. And Weldon looked bad when he criticized his opponent for not treating his daughter at a local hospital, when she had a brain tumor.
Now, I see a couple of 'Rat incumbents tottering. Leonard Boswell has a first-rate opponent whose running a good campaign. Charles Melancon has had a lot of constituants move away, and I'll bet most are Democrats. John Borrows and Jim Marshall face well-known opponents in a state where Bush is still popular. I'm hopeful about those races. But right now, the GOP has far better chances of holding the Senate than the House.
Optimistic is a term usually not associated with me, but I figure better to be a little bit with regards to winning contests. You do present some valid points, but I'm not sure if that will necessarily be enough to spell the end of all of their careers.
I'll add again that essentially the Ferguson and Pryce districts were drawn for them, which is always a plus. As for Sweeney, the drinking thing was a tempest in a teapot, way too overblown (certainly nowhere near as bad as Don Sherwood's deciding to slap his bitch ho around -- now why THAT man is still running, I have no idea), and I doubt the voters in his district will either care or remember. Weldon has managed to do well in a slightly 'Rat leaning district and I can't see them tossing him over for a Clintonista ass-kissing military phony.
Also, I wouldn't have described Heather Wilson's opponents as all being 2nd tier. She herself was somewhat of a "2nd tier" candidate when she succeeded Steve Schiff, winning against a high-profile State Senator (Maloof). She also beat the former U.S. Attorney for NM in '00, and the State Senate President in '02 and '04, these were all very serious challenges in a marginal seat for us. While Madrid is a well-known opponent, she carries considerable baggage for her incompetence/grandstanding with all the scandals that have been surrounding the Dems with statewide office (specifically the Treasurer's office).
Here's one columnist's (obviously a liberal) take on the race, and he's already pronounced Madrid D.O.A.:
http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/ne_columnists/article/0,2565,ALBQ_19852_4929704,00.html