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Exclusive Poll Results Show Allen Losing Ground
WUSA 9 ^ | August 21, 2006 | Survery USA

Posted on 08/21/2006 3:55:05 PM PDT by youthgonewild

GOP Allen's Once Large Lead Evaporates: In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV in Washington, DC.

Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points.

Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, one week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally. Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters. He has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing.

(Excerpt) Read more at wusatv9.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; allen; allen2006; election2006; electioncongress; georgeallen; jameswebb; jimwebb; macaca; macacakaka; poll; senate; virginia; webb
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To: Uncle Hal

Allen lost all hope of a presidential run with his moronic comment.


21 posted on 08/21/2006 4:24:33 PM PDT by muryan
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To: JeanS

As a poll junkie, I generally consider Survey USA and Rasmussen to be among the most reliable (with Zogby having about the accuracy as making something up). On their site, you can check their election track record and its pretty good.


22 posted on 08/21/2006 4:26:04 PM PDT by youthgonewild
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To: SDGOP

I believe it will blow over. I think between now and November he'll get his momentum back unless he does something stupid again. I think he'll be careful.


23 posted on 08/21/2006 4:27:10 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Politicians Are Like Diapers - Both Need To Be Changed Often And For The Same Reason)
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To: youthgonewild

I consider Rasmussen to be very reliable - Most Freepers do too. They prefer Rasmussen to Zogby and the Media polls. Rasmussen does monthly polls for each state. This month is almost over - I'm sure the September poll will be better for Allen. I'm sure he'll swing back. (no monkey pun intended).


24 posted on 08/21/2006 4:31:12 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Politicians Are Like Diapers - Both Need To Be Changed Often And For The Same Reason)
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To: youthgonewild
Allen reported to have said, "I wish I'd kissed the son of a b!tch."
25 posted on 08/21/2006 4:31:13 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Give Them Liberty Or Give Them Death! - IT'S ISLAM, STUPID! - Islam Delenda Est! - Rumble thee forth)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

Can you give us a link to a blog or article where he was supposed to have said that? I can see him saying that to his campaign manager in private after his goof but not at the voters he was talking to at the time.


26 posted on 08/21/2006 4:33:59 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Politicians Are Like Diapers - Both Need To Be Changed Often And For The Same Reason)
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To: areafiftyone

It's from "Patton", O, humor impaired :-)


27 posted on 08/21/2006 4:38:39 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Give Them Liberty Or Give Them Death! - IT'S ISLAM, STUPID! - Islam Delenda Est! - Rumble thee forth)
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To: areafiftyone

Actually, Rasmussen will be polling some key states/races weekly before the election. I presume Allen/Webb will be one of them.


28 posted on 08/21/2006 4:43:48 PM PDT by youthgonewild
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To: areafiftyone

I agree in a few weeks it will blow over and the polls will turn around.


29 posted on 08/21/2006 4:44:15 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Theodore R.

Why doesn't Allen stand on the principles that he claims to have instead of trying to be a PC-"feel good" kind of politicians who "reaches out" to people who won't vote for him? I believe that the failed gubernatorial candidate last year in VA, Jerry Kilgore, is Allen's latest role model.




Far far too many of them are using that model.... Nov is gonna hurt.... hurt bad.


30 posted on 08/21/2006 4:45:16 PM PDT by Waywardson (Carry on! Nothing equals the splendor!)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

oops. LOL Thanks.


31 posted on 08/21/2006 4:45:29 PM PDT by areafiftyone (Politicians Are Like Diapers - Both Need To Be Changed Often And For The Same Reason)
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To: youthgonewild

But have you seen the polling regarding democrats and national security? Dems just can't get out of a hole. That's ominous. Allen will bounce back, but the Dean/Lament democrats ...


32 posted on 08/21/2006 4:47:01 PM PDT by rushmom (l)
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To: JeanS

In terms of average error on the margin of victory in 2004, SurveyUSA was second only to Mason-Dixon. They had the 2nd-best percentage of picking the correct winner, behind only Rasmussen (and beating Mason-Dixon). None of SurveyUSA's polls were outside the margin of error in 2004, but 3 percent of Mason-Dixon's were and 5 percent of Rasmussen's were.

Anyone who says that SurveyUSA is not reliable is simply uninformed and/or unwilling to face reality.


33 posted on 08/21/2006 4:54:15 PM PDT by okstate
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To: youthgonewild

I am tempted to agree that VA Senate will be a key race over the next month or so, as I have a feeling this Allen/Webb race is much closer than it was in mid-July... but somehow I think VA will begin to become less competitive as time goes on and I see races like TN becoming more competitive in the fall.


34 posted on 08/21/2006 4:57:45 PM PDT by okstate
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To: JeanS

Also I would add that Survey USA was the best pollster in 2004 in terms of partisan bias. Their average bias was .1 percent in the Democratic direction. That is the closest to even among all pollsters that conducted more 5 statewide polls in 2004. (For comparison Strategic Vision was biased toward Republicans by 1.9 percent, Mason-Dixon was biased toward Democrats by one-half of a percent, Rasmussen was biased to Dems by 2.2 percent and Zogby was biased towards Democrats by 3 percent)


35 posted on 08/21/2006 5:03:07 PM PDT by okstate
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To: areafiftyone
Allen also suffering from BIG HEAD disease. He's got too cocky and now he's suffering the consequences.

Horse hockey. You have had a thing for Allen for a while now. Doesn't make you accurate. Just bitter.

Consequences? Why, you're right! If the election were held today, George Allen would still WIN COMFORTABLY!

Oh, the horror!

36 posted on 08/21/2006 5:13:10 PM PDT by Coop (No, there are no @!%$&#*! polls on Irey vs. Murtha!)
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To: muryan
Allen lost all hope of a presidential run with his moronic comment.

I find your post far more moronic than a fairy-tale racist word "macaca."

37 posted on 08/21/2006 5:17:14 PM PDT by Coop (No, there are no @!%$&#*! polls on Irey vs. Murtha!)
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To: okstate
"Also I would add that Survey USA was the best pollster in 2004.."

Actually, their accuracy is irrelevant at this point. It's August, and posters getting all excited about the downfall of Allen is very premature.

38 posted on 08/21/2006 5:17:25 PM PDT by Jean S
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To: Coop

Macaca is the genus name for a monkey called the "macaque." Its also a deragotory slur that the french use against black people. So basically when a politician calls a person with dark skin a monkey its ok?


39 posted on 08/21/2006 5:22:44 PM PDT by muryan
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To: Jonah Johansen
"I think people way under estimate the number of percentage points media bias adds to the Democrats"

You can say that again, here in TN the media is calling ford jr a moderate
40 posted on 08/21/2006 5:23:32 PM PDT by sticker
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