Posted on 08/21/2006 3:04:55 PM PDT by DallasJ7
In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV in Washington, DC.
Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points.
Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, one week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally. Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters. He has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing.
Those who support Ballot Question 1, defining marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, vote for Allen by 39 points. Those who oppose Question 1 vote for Webb by 64 points. The election is in 11 weeks, on 11/7/06.
The Republicans have a 10-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Allen's seat had been considered safely Republican, and Allen himself had been widely considered to be a Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2008.
Marriage Amendment Passes 2:1. In an election in Virginia today, 8/21/06, Question 1, which amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to define marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, passes with 65% "Yes" to 34% "No", according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV Washington DC. Republicans support the Amendment 8:1. Democrats oppose the Amendment 5:4. Independents support it 3:2. 92% of Conservatives vote "Yes." 29% of Liberals vote "Yes." Those who approve of President Bush's job performance support the Amendment 9:1. Those who disapprove of Bush oppose the Amendment. The Amendment is supported by 89% of Allen voters but by only 39% of Webb voters.
The following is the result of what 567 "likely voters" said they would vote:
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?
48% Allen (R)
45% Webb (D)
2% Parker (IG)
5% Undecided
Question 1 amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to say the following: that only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions. In an election today, would you vote yes or no on Question 1?
65% Yes
34% No
1% Undecided
Two words: Ground game. We have one built off of '04, Dems still trying to catch up.....Add 3 points in every poll you see in our favor.
Good stuff, thanks
Great post.
I find it of interest and I'm stealing it.
Maybe he meant Matoaca?
There also aren't very many independents in Virginia politics. However, the recent selection of Democrats for Governor suggests the fascists are recovering from the body blow the Republicans gave them back in the 70s and 80s.
True, but remember that party identification in election polling tends to be a rather fluid thing. For some reason, a certain small segment of the sample for whatever reason changes its identification as the race goes in one direction or another, favoring the party of the candidate who has gained ground. This was seen frequently in the 2004 election as I recall. Still, note that Webb has gained 17 points among Independents.
Indeed, I would be very suspicious if this was the only recent poll on this race. But there's also the Rasmussen poll from a couple days ago, which shows Allen only up 5.
"Yes, Virginians sometimes show a lingering fascination with fascism"
This is the most asinine statement I have ever read in all my years of reading and posting at FreeRepublic. Virgina was the State which provided the leadership and genius that allowed the foundation of these United States. Virginians - from the shores of Yorktown to the turnpikes of Manassas, from Pickett's Charge to the blood-stained Omaha beaches at Normandy - are the very definition of anti-authoritarianism.
...'fascination with fascism' my ass.
dvwjr
I'm really getting a little bored with this (and hope the general voting public does as well), but "macaca" is what they call a certain type of monkey that populates Gibraltar, thus its use in Northern Africa, i.e., Tunisia.
It's worth noting that Survey USA has nailed a number of primary contests this year.
I wasn't even gonna touch that one .. you did really well.
SurveyUSA is the best in the business. They nailed the Nevada GOP gubernatorial primary, though Mason-Dixon nailed the NV-2 GOP primary.
Hey, I love your House rankings/analyses. What's your take on TX-22 now that Wallace is out?
Jwalsh07 looked at the crosstabs versus an earlier poll poll by the same outfit, and found a rather substantial change in the weightings of self described Dems versus Pubbies. There is always a discussion, as to whether one adjusts the weightings of partisans leaners, or believes the sample is indeed "random" and "true," and just takes the word of the respondents, and assumes that partisan self described affiliations are fickle, when doing polls. I am not savvy enough to parse and opine about the pros and cons of each methodology. Maybe someone in this neighborhood is.
If I may officiously interject. after playing with the voting device used in TX-22, my take is that TX-22 is more likely to go flip to the Dems than any other seat on the Fruited Plain. Yes, Antiguv's work on House rankings is excellent, and in fact, among the best available on the net. He does his homework, and has a brain, and we are fortunate that the product of that is here for us to view.
The key to a winning GOP presidential candidate in a normal year is to find a candidate that appeals to both of the major wings of the party (social & fiscal) while not being viewed as threatening to the moderate/RINO wing.
That's how Bush got the nomination, and got elected. And, in spite of several major disappointments, it is how he's governed. Tax cuts/Mexican amnesty for the fiscals, SC judges for the socials and "compassionate" big government conservatism for the mushy middle.
Now, take a look at the supposed GOP candidates for '08:
Rudy & McCrazy - non-starters for the socials, for obvious reasons.
Romney - Representing the bluest state in the union, coupled with a Morman background, likely will be too much to overcome.
Newt - Interesting because, when it comes to ideas, he is easily the best of the bunch. However, his stint as Speaker showed having ideas and governing them are two different things. Newt was a poor leader once in power (see Breach of Trust by Tom Coburn). Plus, his personal life is about on a par with Rudy's.
With one exception, the rest of the bunch have virtually zero name recognition and even less money, making them non-starters as well.
That one exception is U.S. Senator (and former governor) George Allen of Virginia. He meets all three criteria for a winning GOP candidate, which is why the 'Rats (via Webb) and the Washington Compost (via the "macaca" nonsense) are trying so hard to trip him up before he gets positioned for the '08 primaries.
For those on the thread who would scream "War on Terror!" as reason for supporting Giuliani and/or McCain, lets stipulate that no GOP candidate is going to get the nomination unless they strongly support the WOT - none. Therefore, there is no absolutely reason to accept the RINO baggage of either Rudy or McCain - all that will do is ensure one of the major wings stays home, and Hillary strolls back to 1600 Pennsylvania.
You want to keep Hillary out? Nominate a conservative who is acceptable to each wing of the GOP. Otherwise, it is a third party situation just waiting to happen, with president HRC waiting in the wings.
The best news would be for Cheney to have a change of heart and accept the nomination for '08 - I believe he would walk over Hillary, especially once they get to debate. The next best news would be for a true conservative not currently on the radar screen to come out of the blue.
Considering the unlikeliness of either option, I believe Allen will be the best choice for conservatives in '08 - unless the left can destroy him before he gets there.
Last thing the Dems want to do is advertise that a Republican is smart.
He could have enjoyed the two years off and formulated policy, got a team together, did some fundraisers, etc. and enjoyed being away from Washington. Instead, he's fighting against a Dim who fights dirty.
He may win the Senate race but he can kiss 2008 goodbye.
Yes, Allen is off the list. Romney just keeps moving on up.
Hey, thanks! I'd be happy to add you to my 'informal' election ping list, if you'd like.
I basically agree with Torie. In 2004 a Howard Dean style third-rate Democrat took 41.1% despite getting outspent 6 to 1. Lampson is a former congressman running as a centrist who can spend at least $3 million for the seat. The write-in procedures are quite cumbersome and the macro-political backdrop is negative for the GOP. There is also a movement by some Republicans to support the Libertarian nominee. In short, I think these are very tall odds for Sekula-Gibbs.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.