Hey, I love your House rankings/analyses. What's your take on TX-22 now that Wallace is out?
If I may officiously interject. after playing with the voting device used in TX-22, my take is that TX-22 is more likely to go flip to the Dems than any other seat on the Fruited Plain. Yes, Antiguv's work on House rankings is excellent, and in fact, among the best available on the net. He does his homework, and has a brain, and we are fortunate that the product of that is here for us to view.
Hey, thanks! I'd be happy to add you to my 'informal' election ping list, if you'd like.
I basically agree with Torie. In 2004 a Howard Dean style third-rate Democrat took 41.1% despite getting outspent 6 to 1. Lampson is a former congressman running as a centrist who can spend at least $3 million for the seat. The write-in procedures are quite cumbersome and the macro-political backdrop is negative for the GOP. There is also a movement by some Republicans to support the Libertarian nominee. In short, I think these are very tall odds for Sekula-Gibbs.
I should add, however, that Wallace's exit has moved TX-22, in my evaluation, from bordering on Safe Dem to where I'm now inclined to rate it a strong Lean Dem. I'd put it at #1 in the rankings in any case.